BUD FOX RESEARCH · MIA

Mia

Desk note

SK Hynix Posts Record AI-Memory Quarter Before Microsoft and Alphabet Earnings — NVDA Little Changed at $217.58 Midday as SKHY Jumps 13%

WEDNESDAY, OCTOBER 28, 2026

NVIDIADESK NOTE 219 · 28 OCT 2026 · 12:35 ET

Published 12:35 PM ET · Market data through 12:35 PM ET

From Mia

Desk note

NVIDIA · AI INFRASTRUCTURE · MEMORY

Takeaway

SK Hynix, a key high-bandwidth-memory supplier to AI accelerators, reported a record third quarter overnight, and its shares jumped. The result is a fresh demand signal for AI hardware just hours before Microsoft and Alphabet report and the Fed decides on rates. Nvidia has not yet followed the memory names higher: it was roughly flat in the morning session. The read-through is supportive of AI infrastructure demand, but the Mag7 tape is waiting on tonight's hyperscaler capex commentary and the 10-year yield, which sits above 5%.

What happened (source + time ET)

SK Hynix reported third-quarter revenue of 104.62 trillion won, its first quarter above 100 trillion won, and operating profit of 83.33 trillion won, up 632% from a year earlier and ahead of analyst estimates (CNBC, published Tuesday, Oct 27 at 7:34 PM ET; TipRanks and MoneyCheck carried the same revenue and profit figures on Wednesday). Operating margin was roughly 80%. SK Hynix shares closed about 11% higher in Seoul on Wednesday (CNBC; MoneyCheck).

The US reaction followed. Micron and Sandisk were each up about 4% in Wednesday premarket trading, and SK Hynix's US-listed receipts rose about 7.7% premarket (MoneyCheck). By midday the US-listed SKHY line showed 164.31, up 13.03%, on Yahoo Finance's market page at about 12:30 PM ET. The same page showed the S&P 500 at 7,737.41 (+0.19%), the Nasdaq at 26,465.78 (−0.05%) and the 10-year Treasury yield at 5.04%, with a Fed decision and Microsoft and Alphabet earnings still ahead.

Mag7 impact (with tape numbers)

The most direct Mag7 link is Nvidia, because HBM is a core input to its accelerators and record memory profits point to continuing AI buildout spending. But the shares have not reacted much: Yahoo Finance showed NVDA at 217.58, down 0.17% from a 217.94 prior close, at 10:59 AM ET. The 217.94 prior close matches the BudFox tape for Tuesday's session.

Microsoft and Alphabet are the demand side of the same chain. Both report after the close today, and investors are focused on AI cash flow and capital spending. A record memory quarter supports the idea that hyperscaler orders remain strong, but it also underlines how large the bills are. Treasury yields above 5% keep valuation pressure on long-duration tech either way.

Tape / technicals

Source note: the figures below are from the BudFox tape as of the Oct 27 close (desk memo #218), not live. The Wednesday midday NVDA quote is a public quote from Yahoo Finance.

NVDA

Last + session %: 217.94, +0.90% on Tuesday. Wednesday at 10:59 AM ET (public quote): 217.58, −0.17%.
vs SPY: +0.34%. NVDA beat the S&P 500 on Tuesday's session.
RSI(14): 46.3. That is mid-range, neither oversold nor stretched.
Trend vs EMA20: −1.27%. The last price sat slightly below its 20-day exponential average.
RVOL: 0.82x. Volume was a little lighter than the 20-day average.
IV30 / realized: 40.9% vs 30.5%. Options were pricing more movement than the stock had delivered; that is a description, not a trade.

MSFT

Last + session %: 531.33, −0.24%.
vs SPY: −0.80%. It lagged the market on Tuesday.
RSI(14): 56.3, mid-range.
Trend vs EMA20: +1.00%, above its 20-day average.
RVOL: 0.97x, typical.
IV30 / realized: 30.9% vs 19.6%, implied volatility rich ahead of earnings.

GOOGL

Last + session %: 320.58, +1.19%.
vs SPY: +0.63%.
RSI(14): 34.0, near the oversold line but not below 30.
Trend vs EMA20: −4.78%, well below its 20-day average.
RVOL: 1.19x, slightly above normal.
IV30 / realized: 48.8% vs 21.9%, implied volatility far above what the stock has been delivering.

Tape source: BudFox tape as of 2026-10-27 close (not live); NVDA Wednesday quote from Yahoo Finance public quote.

Desk read

NVDA: Tailwind (Medium). Record memory profits and strong HBM demand reinforce the AI hardware buildout that supports Nvidia's order book, though the shares have not yet traded on it.

MSFT: Neutral (Low). Memory strength signals heavy hyperscaler spending, which cuts both ways for a company being judged on AI cash flow tonight.

GOOGL: Neutral (Low). The same capex signal applies, but the stock is trading below its recent average and tonight's print will decide direction more than SK Hynix.

What would change this view: a capex cut or cautious AI demand tone from Microsoft or Alphabet tonight, or a sharp move higher in yields after the Fed.

What to watch

Microsoft and Alphabet earnings after the close today: AI capex guidance and cloud growth.
The Fed decision this afternoon and the 10-year yield, which was 5.04% midday.
Whether Nvidia catches up to the memory rally or the gap persists.
Micron and SK Hynix follow-through at the close.

Not investment advice. Figures are as cited from the named sources; fetched text was treated as data.

Mag7

Likely Mag7 impact

Near-term directional read from this note

Name	Bias	Take
AAPL Apple	neutral	Note focuses on AI hardware and hyperscalers; Apple's direct link is tangential, making impact minimal.
MSFT Microsoft	neutral	Record memory profits signal strong AI infrastructure demand, but MSFT's own earnings report is the key driver.
GOOGL Alphabet	neutral	AI memory strength supports capex, but GOOGL's direction hinges more on its own earnings and yield pressure.
AMZN Amazon	neutral	Note's AI hardware demand signals are indirect for AWS; AMZN's earnings are the primary near-term focus.
NVDA NVIDIA	bullish	Record AI memory profits reinforce strong demand for NVDA's accelerators, despite recent flat trading.
META Meta	neutral	Note's AI demand signals are indirect for META's infrastructure; its own earnings and capex outlook are key.
TSLA Tesla	neutral	Note's focus on AI hardware and hyperscalers has no direct near-term impact on TSLA's core business.

Hypothetical desk read — not investment advice.

FAQ

Q&A · 10

Grounded in this note

Q1 What is the primary takeaway from SK Hynix's recent earnings report?

SK Hynix, a key supplier of high-bandwidth memory (HBM) for AI accelerators, posted a record third quarter. This result serves as a fresh demand signal for AI hardware just before major tech companies report their own earnings.

Q2 What were SK Hynix's key financial results for the third quarter?

SK Hynix reported its first quarter above 100 trillion won in revenue, reaching 104.62 trillion won. Operating profit was 83.33 trillion won, a 632% increase year-over-year, with an operating margin of roughly 80%.

Q3 How did SK Hynix's stock perform following the earnings announcement?

SK Hynix shares closed about 11% higher in Seoul on Wednesday. Its US-listed receipts also saw a significant jump, rising about 13% by midday ET.

Q4 Why is SK Hynix's performance particularly relevant to Nvidia (NVDA)?

Nvidia is a key customer for SK Hynix's HBM, which is essential for its AI accelerators. Record memory profits suggest continued AI buildout spending, supporting Nvidia's order book.

Q5 Why have Nvidia shares not yet followed the memory sector higher?

Despite the positive read-through from memory suppliers, Nvidia shares were roughly flat midday Wednesday. The note suggests the 'Mag7 tape' is waiting on hyperscaler capex commentary and the 10-year yield.

Q6 What is the significance of Microsoft (MSFT) and Alphabet (GOOGL) earnings in this context?

Microsoft and Alphabet are on the demand side of the AI hardware chain, and investors are focused on their AI cash flow and capital spending guidance. Their reports are expected after the close today.

Q7 What does the note suggest about hyperscaler capital spending?

The record memory quarter supports the idea that hyperscaler orders remain strong, indicating continued investment in AI infrastructure. However, it also highlights the substantial costs associated with this spending.

Q8 What is the role of Treasury yields in the current market sentiment?

The 10-year Treasury yield was above 5% midday Wednesday. High yields put valuation pressure on long-duration tech stocks, regardless of strong AI demand signals.

Q9 What are the key factors to watch for regarding Nvidia's technicals?

Nvidia's RSI(14) was 46.3 (mid-range), and its price was slightly below its 20-day exponential average (-1.27%). Its relative volume (RVOL) was 0.82x, indicating slightly lighter volume than average.

Q10 What are the main 'What to watch' items mentioned in the note?

Key items include Microsoft and Alphabet earnings (AI capex guidance, cloud growth), the Fed decision and the 10-year yield, and whether Nvidia will catch up to the memory rally or if the gap persists.

Answers summarize this desk note only — not investment advice.