BUD FOX RESEARCH · MAGNIFICENT SEVEN
Mag7 Desk Note #80
TUESDAY, SEPTEMBER 8, 2026
OPEN PREVIEWDESK NOTE 080 · 08 SEPT 2026 · 06:40 ET
Published 6:40 AM ET · Market data through 6:54 AM ET
Leadership
META strongest trend · NVDA cleanest relative
Positioning
5/7 ABOVE EMA20 · 11% AVG CONV
Risk
2/7 BELOW EMA20 · GOOGL WEAKEST RELATIVE
Watch
NVDA +5.0% vs EMA20
Deltas
Since last note
- NEW AAPL: iPhone 18 Pro Event Could Hit Apple Shares, KeyBanc Warns
Desk Synthesis
Executive Takeaway
This is a dispersion tape, not a directional one. Five of seven sit above EMA20 with RSI penned in a 44.8–62.4 band and every action flag NEUTRAL — the money is in relative pairs, not Mag7 beta. The one place fundamentals and tape agree is AI hardware: $947.7B combined CapEx, $319.5B AI-attributed, and TSMC July revenue +44.7% YoY override any hardware-slowdown read from equipment or hedging flow.
Positioning
- Own the infrastructure leg on relative strength: NVDA (+5.0% vs EMA20, 91st percentile, +6.9pp vs AMD/AVGO) with semi-cap confirmation (KLAC +7.3%, LRCX +5.1%, TSM +2.85%). Structure beats the insider-supply headline.
- META is the cheapest leadership available — +5.7% vs EMA20 and +5.6pp vs GOOGL/SNAP, yet only the 36th percentile of its 52-week range. Prefer it as the funding-side long against GOOGL.
- GOOGL is the funding short/underweight: -1.4% vs EMA20, -5.3pp vs META/MSFT, despite being the largest CapEx spender at $185.0B. The market is scoring that spend as cost, not option value. MSFT (+2.9pp vs GOOGL/AMZN) is the steadier secondary.
- Conviction caps at 31% (NVDA). Size accordingly; nothing here supports index-level exposure.
Key Risks
- The "5/5 hyperscalers cutting QoQ CapEx" line is the real crack in the bull case. It hasn't reached TSMC's prints yet — if it does, the structural override thins fast.
- Cheap vol is not the same as safety: AAPL/MSFT IV30 runs 4.5–6.0pts under realized, and megacap flow is defensively tilted (MSFT P/C 1.52). Note one supporting brief cited AAPL puts at "2.3x calls" — that's the ATM premium ratio, not P/C volume (0.84).
- TSLA's -5.92% on 1.77x RVOL is idiosyncratic, not sector; copper +3.3% and WTI +19.8% over 21d add genuine input-cost drag. Also flag: options-feed spots (AAPL 328.21, MSFT 510.12) run above FACTS prices — use FACTS.
Watch
NVDA · TSMC monthly YoY (July +44.7%) against the hyperscaler QoQ CapEx cuts. Foundry deceleration, not the equipment tape or insider sales, is what breaks the leadership.
What Changed
First issue in this series.
Universe
Magnificent Seven · 7 names
SOURCE Yahoo Finance · AS OF 08 SEPT 2026 06:40 ET
Price = daily close · vs SPY = 24h relative · equity as of Sep 8, 6:40 AM ET · options as of Sep 8, 6:39 AM ET
| Symbol | Price | Trend | RSI | RVOL | RV20 | IV30 | IV−RV | Skew | vs SPY | Conv |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| AAPL | 319.97 | +1.0% | 53.9 | 1.00x | 21.5 | 17.0 | -4.5 | — | -2.13% | 7% |
| MSFT | 499.70 | +2.0% | 59.4 | 0.77x | 23.4 | 17.4 | -6.0 | — | -1.66% | 18% |
| GOOGL | 338.46 | -1.4% | 44.8 | 1.05x | 21.7 | 24.2 | +2.5 | — | -0.79% | 10% |
| AMZN | 258.51 | -0.4% | 49.5 | 0.93x | 26.5 | 31.3 | +4.7 | — | +0.23% | 0% |
| NVDA | 230.36 | +5.0% | 60.4 | 1.06x | 44.8 | — | — | — | +1.22% | 31% |
| META | 616.77 | +5.7% | 62.4 | 1.01x | 33.0 | — | — | — | +1.38% | 9% |
| TSLA | 354.08 | +0.6% | 50.9 | 1.77x | 50.6 | — | — | — | -5.54% | 0% |
Community
TradingView strategies · Mag7 · 7
SOURCE TradingView · PineTS · AS OF 01 SEPT 2026 22:55 ET
1y daily · TV community Pine · PineTS Mag7 backtest
| Strategy | Sharpe | Return | Beat B&H | Max DD | Mag7 | Now |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Vegas SuperTrend Enhanced - strategy [presentTrading] | -0.12 | -3.0% | 2/7 | 24.1% | AAPL-2.6%MSFT-16.4%GOOGL+27.5%AMZN-7.4%NVDA+10.7%META-21.0%TSLA-12.0% | MIXED |
| SuperTrend Strategy with Rsi filter for BTCUSD 4H | -0.16 | -5.5% | 2/7 | 31.8% | AAPL+6.5%MSFT+16.2%GOOGL+4.8%AMZN-30.7%NVDA-26.7%META-2.9%TSLA— | SHORT |
| Strategy: HMA 50 + Supertrend Sniper | -0.18 | -15.7% | 1/7 | 39.0% | AAPL+0.0%MSFT-5.9%GOOGL-14.5%AMZN-22.9%NVDA-23.5%META-33.2%TSLA-10.0% | MIXED |
| SuperTrended Moving Averages Strategy | -0.23 | -4.3% | 2/7 | 23.3% | AAPL+10.7%MSFT-8.8%GOOGL-23.0%AMZN-4.9%NVDA-2.1%META+8.0%TSLA-9.7% | SHORT |
| Strategic Multi-Step Supertrend Trader - Strategy [presentTrading] | -0.44 | -0.8% | 3/7 | 6.0% | AAPL-1.0%MSFT+0.1%GOOGL+1.8%AMZN-4.6%NVDA-2.9%META-1.7%TSLA+2.8% | MIXED |
| Elliott Wave with Supertrend Exit - Strategy [presentTrading] | -0.83 | -0.9% | 1/7 | 2.0% | AAPL-0.4%MSFT-1.1%GOOGL-2.0%AMZN-0.1%NVDA—META-1.0%TSLA— | SHORT |
| AI Volume Supertrend - Strategy [presentTrading] | -1.24 | -11.7% | 1/7 | 14.2% | AAPL-13.8%MSFT-10.3%GOOGL-12.7%AMZN-11.9%NVDA-13.0%META-8.4%TSLA-11.6% | SHORT |
Quantitative approximations derived from community-authored TradingView scripts across the Mag7 universe. Execution results are simulated and may not reflect live platform fills. Not investment advice.
Macro
US macro + FX · 13 series
SOURCE FRED · AS OF 08 SEPT 2026 06:38 ET
| Series | Label | Latest | Change | As of |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| DFF | Fed funds effective | 3.63% | +0.00 | 2026-09-03 LAGGED |
| DGS2 | 2Y Treasury | 4.34% | -0.05 | 2026-09-03 LAGGED |
| DGS10 | 10Y Treasury | 4.77% | -0.02 | 2026-09-03 LAGGED |
| T10Y2Y | 10Y–2Y spread | 0.41% | -0.02 | 2026-09-04 LAGGED |
| T10YIE | 10Y breakeven inflation | 2.35% | +0.00 | 2026-09-04 LAGGED |
| BAMLH0A0HYM2 | HY OAS | 2.65% | -0.01 | 2026-09-03 LAGGED |
| UNRATE | Unemployment rate | 4.10% | +0.00 | 2026-08-01 LAGGED |
| CPIAUCSL | CPI (all urban, SA) | 332.8 | +3.54% YoY | 2026-07-01 LAGGED |
| DTWEXBGS | Broad USD index | 118.7 | +0.39 | 2026-08-28 LAGGED |
| DEXUSEU | EURUSD | 1.1598 | -0.0056 | 2026-08-28 LAGGED |
| DEXJPUS | USDJPY | 159.97 | +0.71 | 2026-08-28 LAGGED |
| DEXCHUS | USDCNY (CNH proxy) | 6.7260 | +0.0062 | 2026-08-28 LAGGED |
| VIXCLS | VIX | 14.32 | -0.88 | 2026-09-03 LAGGED |
Metals
Precious & auto metals · 5
SOURCE Yahoo Finance · Futures · AS OF 08 SEPT 2026 06:38 ET
Pt / Pd / Ag / Au + Cu
| ID | Metal | Price | 1d | 5d | 21d | Auto relevance |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| PL | Platinum | $1,842.1 | +1.16% | +3.00% | +5.26% | Catalytic converters (ICE); cost input for auto OEMs / suppliers |
| PA | Palladium | $1,402.5 | +0.89% | +2.91% | +2.07% | Gasoline catalytic converters; sharp moves hit auto input costs |
| SI | Silver | $66.69 | +0.97% | +0.71% | +5.30% | Electronics / EV contacts; industrial demand proxy |
| GC | Gold | $4,445 | +0.34% | +0.31% | +2.40% | Macro risk / real-rate proxy; can affect auto valuation multiples |
| HG | Copper | $6.8170 | +3.33% | +3.39% | +3.75% | EV wiring / motors; not precious but core auto cost input |
Power
Power & energy · 9
SOURCE Yahoo Finance · AS OF 08 SEPT 2026 06:38 ET
Oil / gas / utilities / uranium for AI & industrial power costs
| ID | Name | Price | 1d | 5d | 21d | Relevance |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| CL | WTI crude | $93.64 | +2.36% | +9.19% | +19.77% | Oil complex; logistics & broader industrial cost pressure |
| BZ | Brent crude | $98.28 | +2.08% | +8.61% | +17.63% | Global oil benchmark; energy inflation proxy |
| NG | Natural gas | $2.963 | -0.40% | +0.95% | +11.31% | US power-gen feedstock; data-center / utility cost sensitivity |
| XLU | Utilities ETF | 43.08 | +0.12% | +0.82% | -0.69% | Grid / power-utility equity basket; AI power demand narrative |
| URA | Uranium ETF | 46.06 | +0.79% | +1.08% | +6.62% | Nuclear fuel chain; long-duration AI power buildout proxy |
| XLE | Energy Select ETF | 64.06 | -0.87% | +2.20% | +10.14% | Integrated energy equity beta |
| EQIX | Equinix | $1,036 | -0.47% | -0.81% | -1.13% | Datacenter REIT — colo capacity / interconnection demand proxy |
| DLR | Digital Realty | $188.39 | +0.32% | +1.57% | -2.17% | Hyperscale datacenter real-estate / power shell deployment |
| VRT | Vertiv | $280.53 | +4.35% | +9.12% | +1.95% | Datacenter power & thermal infrastructure orders |
Semis
Semiconductor supply chain · 6
SOURCE Yahoo Finance · AS OF 08 SEPT 2026 06:38 ET
Foundry + equipment bottleneck tape
| ID | Name | Price | 1d | 5d | 21d | Relevance |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SMH | Semi ETF (SMH) | 567.01 | +2.61% | +2.51% | -0.78% | Broad semiconductor supply-chain beta |
| TSM | TSMC | $428.91 | +2.85% | +2.73% | +2.56% | Leading-edge foundry capacity for NVDA / Apple / AMD |
| ASML | ASML | $1,714.9 | +4.17% | +1.10% | +0.62% | EUV lithography bottleneck for advanced nodes |
| AMAT | Applied Materials | $454.71 | +4.31% | -1.51% | -13.70% | Wafer fab equipment — deposition / etch / CMP |
| LRCX | Lam Research | $307.65 | +5.12% | +1.90% | +0.61% | Etch / deposition equipment for logic & memory |
| KLAC | KLA | $185.60 | +7.32% | +5.73% | -3.84% | Process control / inspection — yield bottleneck |
Gases
Specialty gases · 3
SOURCE Yahoo Finance · AS OF 08 SEPT 2026 06:38 ET
Industrial-gas proxies for fab specialty gases
| ID | Name | Price | 1d | 5d | 21d | Relevance |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| LIN | Linde | $477.57 | -0.96% | -2.12% | -2.24% | Largest industrial gas franchise; fab specialty-gas exposure |
| APD | Air Products | $301.27 | -0.97% | -2.21% | +0.45% | Hydrogen / electronic gases for semiconductors & refining |
| AIQUY | Air Liquide ADR | $39.53 | -1.50% | +0.25% | -0.78% | Electronics / specialty gases for chip manufacturing |
News
Mag7 headlines · 7
SOURCE News wire · AS OF 08 SEPT 2026 06:38 ET
| Symbol | Name | Headlines |
|---|---|---|
| AAPL | Apple | |
| MSFT | Microsoft | |
| GOOGL | Alphabet | |
| AMZN | Amazon | |
| NVDA | NVIDIA | |
| META | Meta | |
| TSLA | Tesla |
News
Front-page semantics · 3
SOURCE Front-page wire · AS OF 08 SEPT 2026 06:38 ET
CNBC · FT · TipRanks · TheStreet · Fool · CNN · Fox Business
Today's Mag7 news highlights Apple's potential $14 billion iPhone challenge and the broader push for top-tier credit ratings by AI firms Anthropic and OpenAI post-IPO. The market is also watching BofA's bullish stance on a cloud titan, indicating continued interest in the cloud and AI sectors despite recent dips.
| Urgency | Theme | Story | Mag7 | Source |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| HIGH | consumer | John Ternus’s first test at Apple: selling a $2,000 foldable iPhone | AAPL | Financial Times |
| MEDIUM | AI/chips | Anthropic and OpenAI bankers push for top-tier credit ratings post-IPO | GOOGL, MSFT, NVDA, AMZN, META | Financial Times |
| MEDIUM | cloud | BofA stays bullish on a cloud titan that is down 25% | AMZN, MSFT, GOOGL | TheStreet |
Influencers
Donald J. Trump · Truth Social · 7
SOURCE Trump's Truth · AS OF 08 SEPT 2026 06:38 ET
| Symbol | Name | Date | Latest Truth |
|---|---|---|---|
| AAPL | Apple | September 2, 2026, 4:09 PM | |
| MSFT | Microsoft | August 10, 2024, 11:01 PM | |
| GOOGL | Alphabet | August 30, 2026, 5:36 PM | |
| AMZN | Amazon | December 30, 2025, 4:18 PM | |
| NVDA | NVIDIA | September 1, 2026, 3:39 PM | |
| META | Meta | February 9, 2023, 1:46 PM | |
| TSLA | Tesla | March 11, 2025, 4:12 PM |
Options
Mag7 options · 4
SOURCE Options · Massive · AS OF 08 SEPT 2026 06:39 ET
Front expiry ATM IV · put/call
| Symbol | Spot | Expiry | ATM IV | P/C vol | P/C OI | Skew |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| AAPL | 328.21 | 2026-10-09 | 17.0% | 0.84 | — | — |
| MSFT | 510.12 | 2026-10-09 | 17.4% | 1.52 | — | — |
| GOOGL | 342.48 | 2026-10-09 | 24.2% | 0.00 | — | — |
| AMZN | 258.90 | 2026-10-09 | 31.3% | 0.35 | — | — |
| NVDA | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| META | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| TSLA | — | — | — | — | — | — |
Alt data
Congress trades · Mag7
No Mag7 trades extracted; No Mag7 trades extracted
Alt data
Insider trades · Mag7 · 20
SOURCE SEC EDGAR · AS OF 04 SEPT 2026 07:55 ET
Open-market purchases / sales
| Symbol | Side | Shares | Price | Filer | Title | Date |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| AAPL | Sale | 1,439 | 317.01 | Newstead Jennifer | SVP, GC and Government Affairs | 2026-09-01 |
| AMZN | Sale | 1,000 | 254.77 | Herrington Douglas J | CEO Worldwide Amazon Stores | 2026-09-01 |
| MSFT | Sale | 1,040 | 498.24 | Nadella Satya | Chief Executive Officer | 2026-09-01 |
| MSFT | Sale | 5,080 | 499.45 | Nadella Satya | Chief Executive Officer | 2026-09-01 |
| MSFT | Sale | 24,723 | 500.47 | Nadella Satya | Chief Executive Officer | 2026-09-01 |
| MSFT | Sale | 32,901 | 501.12 | Nadella Satya | Chief Executive Officer | 2026-09-01 |
| MSFT | Sale | 4,520 | 502.29 | Nadella Satya | Chief Executive Officer | 2026-09-01 |
| MSFT | Sale | 7,067 | 503.44 | Nadella Satya | Chief Executive Officer | 2026-09-01 |
| MSFT | Sale | 9,834 | 504.11 | Nadella Satya | Chief Executive Officer | 2026-09-01 |
| MSFT | Sale | 1,360 | 505.20 | Nadella Satya | Chief Executive Officer | 2026-09-01 |
| NVDA | Sale | 447,400 | 220.10 | STEVENS MARK A | — | 2026-08-31 |
| NVDA | Sale | 137,600 | 220.91 | STEVENS MARK A | — | 2026-08-31 |
| NVDA | Sale | 63,501 | 220.06 | STEVENS MARK A | — | 2026-09-01 |
| NVDA | Sale | 300,000 | 220.08 | STEVENS MARK A | — | 2026-09-02 |
| NVDA | Sale | 300,000 | 222.92 | STEVENS MARK A | — | 2026-09-02 |
| NVDA | Sale | 300,000 | 224.07 | STEVENS MARK A | — | 2026-09-02 |
| NVDA | Sale | 300,000 | 226.27 | STEVENS MARK A | — | 2026-09-02 |
| NVDA | Sale | 6,692 | 216.84 | Teter Timothy S. | EVP, General Counsel and Sec | 2026-08-31 |
| NVDA | Sale | 13,913 | 217.95 | Teter Timothy S. | EVP, General Counsel and Sec | 2026-08-31 |
| NVDA | Sale | 9,395 | 218.53 | Teter Timothy S. | EVP, General Counsel and Sec | 2026-08-31 |
Alt data
Short interest · Mag7 · 7
SOURCE Short interest · AS OF 08 SEPT 2026 06:38 ET
Days to cover = SI ÷ ADV
| Symbol | Short interest | ADV | Days to cover | Δ SI | Settlement |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| AAPL | 116.33M | 46.07M | 2.53 | -17.9% | 2026-08-14 |
| MSFT | 68.54M | 33.44M | 2.05 | -15.7% | 2026-08-14 |
| GOOGL | 72.71M | 27.23M | 2.67 | +3.1% | 2026-08-14 |
| AMZN | 95.30M | 42.07M | 2.27 | -3.2% | 2026-08-14 |
| NVDA | 285.96M | 113.58M | 2.52 | -2.3% | 2026-08-14 |
| META | 28.05M | 14.46M | 1.94 | -10.8% | 2026-08-14 |
| TSLA | 69.20M | 32.13M | 2.15 | +1.0% | 2026-08-14 |
Calendar
Earnings · Mag7 · 5
SOURCE Finnhub · AS OF 04 SEPT 2026 07:55 ET
Window 2026-08-21 → 2026-11-03 · EPS actual / estimate
| Symbol | Date | Timing | Session | Period | EPS A/E |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| MSFT | 2026-10-27 | In 53d | — | Q1 2027 | — / 4.82 |
| GOOGL | 2026-10-27 | In 53d | AMC | Q3 2026 | — / 3.11 |
| META | 2026-10-27 | In 53d | AMC | Q3 2026 | — / 6.66 |
| AAPL | 2026-10-28 | In 54d | AMC | Q4 2026 | — / 2.02 |
| AMZN | 2026-10-28 | In 54d | AMC | Q3 2026 | — / 1.99 |
| NVDA | No print in window | ||||
| TSLA | No print in window | ||||
Comps
Competitive peers · Mag7 · 7
SOURCE Competitive peers · AS OF 08 SEPT 2026 06:38 ET
| Primary | Price | Trend | Peer 1 | Price | Trend | RVOL | Peer 2 | Price | Trend | RVOL | Note |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| AAPL | 319.97 | +1.0% | MSFT | 499.70 | +2.0% | 0.77x | GOOGL | 338.46 | -1.4% | 1.05x | Platform + consumer software peers |
| MSFT | 499.70 | +2.0% | GOOGL | 338.46 | -1.4% | 1.05x | AMZN | 258.51 | -0.4% | 0.93x | Cloud / enterprise software peers |
| GOOGL | 338.46 | -1.4% | META | 616.77 | +5.7% | 1.01x | MSFT | 499.70 | +2.0% | 0.77x | Ad platforms + cloud peers |
| AMZN | 258.51 | -0.4% | WMT | 107.14 | -0.7% | 0.74x | COST | 915.74 | -2.8% | 1.19x | Commerce / retail scale peers |
| NVDA | 230.36 | +5.0% | AMD | 477.57 | +0.6% | 1.10x | AVGO | 357.90 | -4.2% | 1.45x | AI / semiconductor peers |
| META | 616.77 | +5.7% | GOOGL | 338.46 | -1.4% | 1.05x | SNAP | 5.47 | +1.6% | 0.54x | Social / digital ads peers |
| TSLA | 354.08 | +0.6% | GM | 87.76 | +1.9% | 1.06x | F | 14.62 | +3.4% | 0.98x | Auto / EV peers |
Patents
USPTO · Mag7 · 21 grants
SOURCE USPTO · AS OF 09 SEPT 2026 06:54 ET
| Symbol | Granted | Age | Patent | Title | Assignee |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| GOOGL | 2026-05-19 | 4mo ago | US12632461B2 | Application prediction based on a visual search determination | Google LLC |
| AAPL | 2026-05-12 | 4mo ago | USD1126244S1 | Display screen or portion thereof with animated graphical user interface | Apple Inc |
| GOOGL | 2026-05-12 | 4mo ago | US12625895B2 | Generating a personal database entry for a user based on natural language user input | Google LLC |
| GOOGL | 2026-05-12 | 4mo ago | US12625918B2 | Automatic navigation of interactive web documents | Google LLC |
| AMZN | 2026-05-12 | 4mo ago | USD1125979S1 | Wall mount | Amazon Technologies, Inc. |
| MSFT | 2026-05-12 | 4mo ago | US12627818B2 | Constraints on locations of reference blocks for intra block copy prediction | Microsoft Technology Licensing, Llc |
| META | 2026-05-12 | 4mo ago | US12625557B2 | Detecting head gestures using inertial measurement unit signals | Meta Platforms, Inc |
| AAPL | 2026-05-05 | 4mo ago | USD1125246S1 | Display screen or portion thereof with icon | Apple Inc |
| NVDA | 2026-05-05 | 4mo ago | US12619596B2 | Automatical generation and maintenance of data cards for datasets | Nvidia Corporation |
| GOOGL | 2026-04-28 | 4mo ago | US12613915B2 | Structured video documents | Google LLC |
| AMZN | 2026-04-28 | 4mo ago | USD1123902S1 | Electronic device | Amazon Technologies, Inc. |
| AMZN | 2026-04-28 | 4mo ago | USJPCAUSD1123902S1 | Electronic device | Amazon Technologies, Inc. |
| GOOGL | 2026-04-21 | 5mo ago | US12608369B2 | Methods, systems, and computer readable media related to generating a combined search query | Google LLC |
| META | 2026-04-21 | 5mo ago | US12608435B2 | Accessing content via a logged-out experience | Meta Platforms, Inc |
| AMZN | 2026-04-14 | 5mo ago | USD1122257S1 | Electronic device | Amazon Technologies, Inc. |
| NVDA | 2026-04-14 | 5mo ago | US12602332B1 | Distributed page table, memory map and routing table for multiple node systems | NVIDIA Corporation |
| AMZN | 2026-04-07 | 5mo ago | USD1121603S1 | Wireless connectivity device | Amazon Technologies, Inc |
| META | 2026-04-07 | 5mo ago | US12597444B2 | Systems and methods for automated digital editing | Meta Platforms, Inc |
| AAPL | 2026-04-07 | 5mo ago | USD1121665S1 | Display screen or portion thereof with a group of graphical user interfaces | Apple Inc |
| AMZN | 2026-04-07 | 5mo ago | USD1121705S1 | Camera mount | Amazon Technologies, Inc. |
| NVDA | 2026-04-07 | 5mo ago | US12596148B1 | Jitter injection generator for measuring phase noise and jitter transfer | NVIDIA Corporation |
Forward look
Stock Prediction for Tomorrow
Summary
Dispersion tape, not a beta tape: five of seven above EMA20, RSI compressed 44.8–62.4, and every action flag NEUTRAL with top conviction just 31% (NVDA). Overnight risk is mildly heavier — Nikkei -1.70%, DAX -0.21%, VIX +5.3% to 15.30 — while WTI +19.8% over 21d and 10Y at 4.77% cap multiple expansion. Dominant catalyst is the AI-hardware structure: $947.7B combined CapEx ($319.5B AI-attributed) and TSMC July +44.7% YoY override the equipment/hedging slowdown chatter.
Mag7 Calls
- AAPL · Flat · low — Constructive tape (+1.0% vs EMA20, RSI 53.9, 79th %ile, SI -17.9%) offset by KeyBanc's iPhone 18 "negative catalyst" warning and defensive ATM premium (put $14.41 vs call $6.15).
- MSFT · Up · low — Best cloud relative strength (+2.0% vs EMA20, +2.9pp vs GOOGL/AMZN, RSI 59.4), but P/C vol 1.52 and heavy Nadella Form 4 selling at ~$500 cap the upside.
- GOOGL · Down · medium — Only name with a broken trend and weak momentum (-1.4% vs EMA20, RSI 44.8, -5.3pp vs META/MSFT); market scoring the $185.0B CapEx as cost, and IV30 +2.5pts over realized.
- AMZN · Flat · low — Sub-EMA20 (-0.4%) with RSI 49.5 and 0% conviction; AWS 39% margin and BofA's bullish cloud note support the bid but P/C vol 0.35 shows no urgency.
- META · Up · medium — Strongest leadership at +5.7% vs EMA20 and +5.6pp vs GOOGL/SNAP, RSI 62.4, yet only 36th %ile of 52w range with SI -10.8%.
- NVDA · Up · medium — Highest conviction (31%), +5.0% vs EMA20, 91st %ile, +6.9pp vs AMD/AVGO, confirmed by KLAC +7.3%, LRCX +5.1%, TSM +2.85%; Stevens' sales are supply, not signal.
- TSLA · Flat · low — Yesterday's -5.92% on 1.77x RVOL leaves it barely above EMA20 (+0.6%) with RSI 50.9; oversold bounce potential fights copper +3.3% and Goldman's cautious note.
Catalysts to Watch
- iPhone 18 Pro event framing and the FT foldable/$2,000 pricing story — a genuine AAPL sentiment swing factor either way.
- TSMC's next monthly revenue print versus the "5/5 hyperscalers cutting QoQ CapEx" line; foundry deceleration is what breaks NVDA/META leadership.
- Energy and rates: WTI $93.64 (+9.2% 5d) plus 10Y 4.77% would pressure the whole complex if breakevens (2.35%) start moving.
Risks
- Cheap vol misleads: AAPL/MSFT IV30 sits 4.5–6.0pts below realized, so an unhedged gap hits harder than screens imply.
- GOOGL is a crowded underweight with SI +3.1%; any AI-monetization headline could squeeze the funding short and invert the META/GOOGL pair.
Hypothetical next-session read from tape + desk synthesis. Not investment advice.