BUD FOX RESEARCH · MAGNIFICENT SEVEN
Mag7 Desk Note #56
WEDNESDAY, AUGUST 26, 2026
OPEN PREVIEWDESK NOTE 056 · 26 AUG 2026 · 06:47 ET
Published 6:47 AM ET · Market data through 5:37 AM ET
Leadership
MSFT strongest trend · NVDA cleanest relative
Positioning
3/7 ABOVE EMA20 · 11% AVG CONV
Risk
4/7 BELOW EMA20 · META WEAKEST RELATIVE
Watch
NVDA -0.7% vs EMA20
Deltas
Since last note
- CHANGED Above-EMA20 4 → 3: GOOGL lost trend (+0.1% → -0.2%); NVDA and META repaired sharply but stayed below.
- CHANGED Short interest rolled to 8/14: AAPL -17.9% and MSFT -15.7% covering, GOOGL +3.1% and TSLA +1.0% the only names adding shorts.
- CHANGED AMZN insider distribution broadened to Jassy and Garman on 8/21; [NEW] WSJ questions MSFT's AI disclosure.
Desk Synthesis
Executive Takeaway
Breadth thinned to three above EMA20, but the composition improved: GOOGL's slip was marginal while NVDA (-2.9% → -0.7%) and META (-2.9% → -0.9%) repaired hard without reclaiming trend. RSI compressed into 46.4–65.7 and every name still screens NEUTRAL at a 31% conviction ceiling. This is hedged pre-event positioning ahead of NVDA tonight, not a directional turn.
Positioning
- MSFT is still the only name with trend, momentum and peer confirmation aligned (+3.8% vs EMA20, RSI 65.7, +3.9pp over GOOGL/AMZN). Hold, don't extend — the AI-disclosure headline is the first pushback on the narrative doing the work.
- NVDA's 3.5pp edge over AMD/AVGO is again peer attrition (AVGO -7.3%), and it narrowed from +3.7pp. Size to the event; don't add hardware beta while equipment stays broken on 21d.
- META and AAPL remain funding candidates, not value: META RSI 46.4, 18th percentile, 7.2pp behind GOOGL/SNAP with SNAP +12.9%; AAPL 2.4pp behind MSFT/GOOGL despite -17.9% short-interest covering.
- Fade AMZN's new "outperformance" over WMT/COST — WMT at -4.8% supplies the entire 2.1pp against CEO and AWS-CEO selling on 8/21.
Key Risks
- URA +19.4% on 21d prices the power buildout while AMAT -7.0% and KLAC -9.7% say fab capacity isn't confirmed. One-day SMH/TSM strength is not an inflection.
- TSLA's 2.7pp edge over GM/F comes with copper +5.0% 5d and platinum +16.5% 21d — input costs are moving against the margin story.
- Cached NVDA/META/TSLA/AMZN option rows are stale (NVDA prints 223.96 vs 213.05 cash). Unusable for live pricing.
Watch
NVDA -0.7% vs EMA20 into tonight AMC (EPS est 2.13, rev est $93.6B), IV30 41.1% with IV−RV +5.6 — the only Mag7 name where insurance is bid meaningfully above realized.
What Changed
- Above-EMA20 4 → 3: GOOGL lost trend (+0.1% → -0.2%); NVDA and META repaired sharply but stayed below.
- Short interest rolled to 8/14: AAPL -17.9% and MSFT -15.7% covering, GOOGL +3.1% and TSLA +1.0% the only names adding shorts.
- AMZN insider distribution broadened to Jassy and Garman on 8/21; [NEW] WSJ questions MSFT's AI disclosure.
Universe
Magnificent Seven · 7 names
SOURCE Yahoo Finance · AS OF 26 AUG 2026 06:47 ET
Price = daily close · vs SPY = 24h relative · equity as of Aug 26, 6:47 AM ET · options as of Aug 26, 6:45 AM ET
| Symbol | Price | Trend | RSI | RVOL | RV20 | IV30 | IV−RV | Skew | vs SPY | Conv |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| AAPL | 309.90 | -0.6% | 47.8 | 0.49x | 32.6 | 24.6 | -8.0 | — | -0.46% | 7% |
| MSFT | 491.71 | +3.8% | 65.7 | 0.54x | 56.9 | 30.1 | -26.8 | — | +0.58% | 18% |
| GOOGL | 346.96 | -0.2% | 48.7 | 0.78x | 37.8 | 26.8 | -11.0 | — | -0.64% | 10% |
| AMZN | 261.06 | +0.1% | 51.6 | 0.54x | 59.6 | 37.2 | -22.4 | — | -0.70% | 0% |
| NVDA | 213.05 | -0.7% | 49.6 | 1.05x | 35.5 | 41.1 | +5.6 | — | +1.87% | 31% |
| META | 570.05 | -0.9% | 46.4 | 0.56x | 48.4 | 36.7 | -11.7 | — | +1.65% | 9% |
| TSLA | 350.25 | +2.0% | 51.9 | 0.86x | 39.7 | 42.7 | +3.0 | — | +0.05% | 0% |
Community
TradingView strategies · Mag7
Strategy bench not available this generation.
Macro
US macro + FX · 13 series
SOURCE FRED · AS OF 26 AUG 2026 04:00 ET
| Series | Label | Latest | Change | As of |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| DFF | Fed funds effective | 3.63% | +0.00 | 2026-08-24 |
| DGS2 | 2Y Treasury | 4.24% | +0.00 | 2026-08-24 |
| DGS10 | 10Y Treasury | 4.69% | +0.04 | 2026-08-20 LAGGED |
| T10Y2Y | 10Y–2Y spread · legs imply +0.45 as of 2026-08-24 | 0.51% | +0.03 | 2026-08-14 LAGGED |
| T10YIE | 10Y breakeven inflation | 2.27% | +0.03 | 2026-08-14 LAGGED |
| BAMLH0A0HYM2 | HY OAS | 2.71% | +0.00 | 2026-08-13 LAGGED |
| UNRATE | Unemployment rate | 4.10% | -0.10 | 2026-07-01 LAGGED |
| CPIAUCSL | CPI (all urban, SA) | 332.8 | +3.54% YoY | 2026-07-01 LAGGED |
| DTWEXBGS | Broad USD index | 119.1 | -0.45 | 2026-08-07 LAGGED |
| DEXUSEU | EURUSD | 1.1559 | +0.0038 | 2026-08-07 LAGGED |
| DEXJPUS | USDJPY | 157.54 | -0.91 | 2026-08-07 LAGGED |
| DEXCHUS | USDCNY (CNH proxy) | 6.7474 | -0.0014 | 2026-08-07 LAGGED |
| VIXCLS | VIX | 14.63 | +0.08 | 2026-08-13 LAGGED |
Metals
Precious & auto metals · 5
SOURCE Yahoo Finance · Futures · AS OF 26 AUG 2026 06:45 ET
Pt / Pd / Ag / Au + Cu
| ID | Metal | Price | 1d | 5d | 21d | Auto relevance |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| PL | Platinum | $1,878.5 | +1.40% | +4.21% | +16.52% | Catalytic converters (ICE); cost input for auto OEMs / suppliers |
| PA | Palladium | $1,358 | +1.96% | +1.96% | +7.22% | Gasoline catalytic converters; sharp moves hit auto input costs |
| SI | Silver | $68.55 | -0.13% | +4.28% | +19.64% | Electronics / EV contacts; industrial demand proxy |
| GC | Gold | $4,675.4 | +0.80% | +4.14% | +15.83% | Macro risk / real-rate proxy; can affect auto valuation multiples |
| HG | Copper | $6.8120 | +1.53% | +5.00% | +7.75% | EV wiring / motors; not precious but core auto cost input |
Power
Power & energy · 6
SOURCE Yahoo Finance · AS OF 26 AUG 2026 06:45 ET
Oil / gas / utilities / uranium for AI & industrial power costs
| ID | Name | Price | 1d | 5d | 21d | Relevance |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| CL | WTI crude | $80.16 | -2.67% | -6.61% | +1.14% | Oil complex; logistics & broader industrial cost pressure |
| BZ | Brent crude | $85.03 | -4.01% | -7.19% | +1.12% | Global oil benchmark; energy inflation proxy |
| NG | Natural gas | $2.879 | +3.94% | +2.31% | +8.15% | US power-gen feedstock; data-center / utility cost sensitivity |
| XLU | Utilities ETF | 43.31 | +0.21% | -1.61% | -5.19% | Grid / power-utility equity basket; AI power demand narrative |
| URA | Uranium ETF | 48.14 | +5.36% | +10.36% | +19.39% | Nuclear fuel chain; long-duration AI power buildout proxy |
| XLE | Energy Select ETF | 62.06 | -1.66% | -2.54% | +6.34% | Integrated energy equity beta |
Semis
Semiconductor supply chain · 6
SOURCE Yahoo Finance · AS OF 26 AUG 2026 06:45 ET
Foundry + equipment bottleneck tape
| ID | Name | Price | 1d | 5d | 21d | Relevance |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SMH | Semi ETF (SMH) | 555.82 | +1.65% | -2.45% | +1.33% | Broad semiconductor supply-chain beta |
| TSM | TSMC | $417.41 | +1.78% | +0.97% | +4.59% | Leading-edge foundry capacity for NVDA / Apple / AMD |
| ASML | ASML | $1,744.2 | +0.23% | -3.26% | +5.51% | EUV lithography bottleneck for advanced nodes |
| AMAT | Applied Materials | $480.04 | -0.86% | -6.57% | -7.03% | Wafer fab equipment — deposition / etch / CMP |
| LRCX | Lam Research | $314.66 | +1.45% | -4.04% | +7.90% | Etch / deposition equipment for logic & memory |
| KLAC | KLA | $183.34 | +0.97% | -5.88% | -9.74% | Process control / inspection — yield bottleneck |
Gases
Specialty gases · 3
SOURCE Yahoo Finance · AS OF 26 AUG 2026 06:45 ET
Industrial-gas proxies for fab specialty gases
| ID | Name | Price | 1d | 5d | 21d | Relevance |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| LIN | Linde | $487.20 | -0.58% | +1.77% | -3.91% | Largest industrial gas franchise; fab specialty-gas exposure |
| APD | Air Products | $303.85 | -0.78% | +0.20% | +3.85% | Hydrogen / electronic gases for semiconductors & refining |
| AIQUY | Air Liquide ADR | $39.14 | -0.31% | +1.27% | -2.97% | Electronics / specialty gases for chip manufacturing |
News
Mag7 headlines · 7
SOURCE News wire · AS OF 26 AUG 2026 06:45 ET
| Symbol | Name | Headlines |
|---|---|---|
| AAPL | Apple | |
| MSFT | Microsoft | |
| GOOGL | Alphabet | |
| AMZN | Amazon | |
| NVDA | NVIDIA | |
| META | Meta | |
| TSLA | Tesla |
News
Front-page semantics
No front-page news extraction in this generation.
Influencers
Donald J. Trump · Truth Social · 7
SOURCE Trump's Truth · AS OF 26 AUG 2026 06:45 ET
| Symbol | Name | Date | Latest Truth |
|---|---|---|---|
| AAPL | Apple | July 10, 2026, 8:19 PM | |
| MSFT | Microsoft | August 10, 2024, 11:01 PM | |
| GOOGL | Alphabet | August 17, 2024, 8:15 AM | |
| AMZN | Amazon | December 30, 2025, 4:18 PM | |
| NVDA | NVIDIA | July 27, 2026, 7:20 PM | |
| META | Meta | February 9, 2023, 1:46 PM | |
| TSLA | Tesla | March 11, 2025, 4:12 PM |
Options
Mag7 options · 7
SOURCE Options · Massive · AS OF 26 AUG 2026 06:45 ET
Front expiry ATM IV · put/call
| Symbol | Spot | Expiry | ATM IV | P/C vol | P/C OI | Skew |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| AAPL | 310.34 | 2026-09-25 | 24.6% | 0.23 | — | — |
| MSFT | 487.31 | 2026-09-25 | 30.1% | 0.41 | — | — |
| GOOGL | 348.06 | 2026-09-25 | 26.8% | 0.00 | — | — |
| AMZN | 258.63 | 2026-09-25 | 37.2% | 0.00 | — | — |
| NVDA | 223.96 | 2026-09-04 | 41.1% | 0.12 | — | — |
| META | 592.10 | 2026-09-04 | 36.7% | 1.07 | — | — |
| TSLA | 328.58 | 2026-09-04 | 42.7% | 0.13 | — | — |
Alt data
Congress trades · Mag7 · 20
SOURCE Capitol Trades · AS OF 26 AUG 2026 06:45 ET
STOCK Act disclosures
| Symbol | Side | Range | Member | Party / chamber | Date |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| AAPL | sell | 100K–250K | Shri Thanedar | Democrat · House | 2026-01-08 |
| AAPL | buy | 1K–15K | Tracey Mann | Republican · House | 2024-08-19 |
| GOOGL | buy | 1K–15K | Tracey Mann | Republican · House | 2024-08-19 |
| GOOGL | buy | 1K–15K | David Taylor | Republican · House | 2026-08-21 |
| MSFT | sell | 15K–50K | David Taylor | Republican · House | 2026-08-21 |
| GOOGL | buy | 1K–15K | David Taylor | Republican · House | 2026-07-16 |
| MSFT | buy | 1K–15K | David Taylor | Republican · House | 2026-07-23 |
| AAPL | sell | 1K–15K | David Taylor | Republican · House | 2026-07-23 |
| MSFT | buy | 50K–100K | Scott Peters | Democrat · House | 2026-07-29 |
| MSFT | buy | 15K–50K | Scott Peters | Democrat · House | 2026-07-27 |
| MSFT | buy | 500K–1M | Scott Peters | Democrat · House | 2026-07-26 |
| MSFT | sell | 50K–100K | Scott Peters | Democrat · House | 2026-07-26 |
| MSFT | buy | 1K–15K | David Taylor | Republican · House | 2026-08-07 |
| GOOGL | buy | 1K–15K | Josh Gottheimer | Democrat · House | 2026-08-11 |
| MSFT | sell | 50K–100K | Scott Peters | Democrat · House | 2026-07-23 |
| MSFT | sell | 50K–100K | Scott Peters | Democrat · House | 2026-07-22 |
| MSFT | sell | 250K–500K | Scott Peters | Democrat · House | 2026-07-21 |
| GOOGL | buy | 1K–15K | David Taylor | Republican · House | 2026-08-07 |
| AMZN | sell | 1K–15K | Josh Gottheimer | Democrat · House | 2026-07-16 |
| AAPL | buy | 1K–15K | John Boozman | Republican · Senate | 2026-07-08 |
Alt data
Insider trades · Mag7 · 20
SOURCE SEC EDGAR · AS OF 26 AUG 2026 06:45 ET
Open-market purchases / sales
| Symbol | Side | Shares | Price | Filer | Title | Date |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| AMZN | Sale | 3,197 | 257.63 | Jassy Andrew R | President and CEO | 2026-08-21 |
| AMZN | Sale | 7,478 | 258.67 | Jassy Andrew R | President and CEO | 2026-08-21 |
| AMZN | Sale | 7,514 | 259.61 | Jassy Andrew R | President and CEO | 2026-08-21 |
| AMZN | Sale | 1,811 | 260.39 | Jassy Andrew R | President and CEO | 2026-08-21 |
| AMZN | Sale | 2,159 | 257.60 | Garman Matthew S | CEO Amazon Web Services | 2026-08-21 |
| AMZN | Sale | 5,191 | 258.66 | Garman Matthew S | CEO Amazon Web Services | 2026-08-21 |
| AMZN | Sale | 5,240 | 259.57 | Garman Matthew S | CEO Amazon Web Services | 2026-08-21 |
| AMZN | Sale | 1,951 | 260.34 | Garman Matthew S | CEO Amazon Web Services | 2026-08-21 |
| AAPL | Sale | 1,439 | 307.49 | Newstead Jennifer | SVP, GC and Secretary | 2026-08-18 |
| META | Sale | 1,559 | 558.00 | Mahoney Curtis J. | Chief Legal Officer | 2026-08-18 |
| META | Sale | 1,845 | 547.51 | LI SUSAN J | Chief Financial Officer | 2026-08-18 |
| META | Sale | 1,864 | 548.20 | LI SUSAN J | Chief Financial Officer | 2026-08-18 |
| META | Sale | 1,219 | 549.25 | LI SUSAN J | Chief Financial Officer | 2026-08-18 |
| META | Sale | 708 | 550.20 | LI SUSAN J | Chief Financial Officer | 2026-08-18 |
| META | Sale | 1,031 | 551.25 | LI SUSAN J | Chief Financial Officer | 2026-08-18 |
| META | Sale | 561 | 552.47 | LI SUSAN J | Chief Financial Officer | 2026-08-18 |
| META | Sale | 768 | 553.42 | LI SUSAN J | Chief Financial Officer | 2026-08-18 |
| META | Sale | 160 | 554.39 | LI SUSAN J | Chief Financial Officer | 2026-08-18 |
| META | Sale | 40 | 555.83 | LI SUSAN J | Chief Financial Officer | 2026-08-18 |
| META | Sale | 720 | 557.57 | LI SUSAN J | Chief Financial Officer | 2026-08-18 |
Alt data
Short interest · Mag7 · 7
SOURCE Short interest · AS OF 26 AUG 2026 06:45 ET
Days to cover = SI ÷ ADV
| Symbol | Short interest | ADV | Days to cover | Δ SI | Settlement |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| AAPL | 116.33M | 46.07M | 2.53 | -17.9% | 2026-08-14 |
| MSFT | 68.54M | 33.44M | 2.05 | -15.7% | 2026-08-14 |
| GOOGL | 72.71M | 27.23M | 2.67 | +3.1% | 2026-08-14 |
| AMZN | 95.30M | 42.07M | 2.27 | -3.2% | 2026-08-14 |
| NVDA | 285.96M | 113.58M | 2.52 | -2.3% | 2026-08-14 |
| META | 28.05M | 14.46M | 1.94 | -10.8% | 2026-08-14 |
| TSLA | 69.20M | 32.13M | 2.15 | +1.0% | 2026-08-14 |
Calendar
Earnings · Mag7 · 2
SOURCE Finnhub · AS OF 26 AUG 2026 06:45 ET
Window 2026-08-12 → 2026-10-25 · EPS actual / estimate
| Symbol | Date | Timing | Session | Period | EPS A/E |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| NVDA | 2026-08-26 | Today | AMC | Q2 2027 | — / 2.13 |
| TSLA | 2026-10-20 | In 55d | AMC | Q3 2026 | — / 0.44 |
| AAPL | No print in window | ||||
| AMZN | No print in window | ||||
| GOOGL | No print in window | ||||
| META | No print in window | ||||
| MSFT | No print in window | ||||
Comps
Competitive peers · Mag7 · 7
SOURCE Competitive peers · AS OF 26 AUG 2026 06:45 ET
| Primary | Price | Trend | Peer 1 | Price | Trend | RVOL | Peer 2 | Price | Trend | RVOL | Note |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| AAPL | 309.90 | -0.6% | MSFT | 491.71 | +3.8% | 0.54x | GOOGL | 346.96 | -0.2% | 0.78x | Platform + consumer software peers |
| MSFT | 491.71 | +3.8% | GOOGL | 346.96 | -0.2% | 0.78x | AMZN | 261.06 | +0.1% | 0.54x | Cloud / enterprise software peers |
| GOOGL | 346.96 | -0.2% | META | 570.05 | -0.9% | 0.56x | MSFT | 491.71 | +3.8% | 0.54x | Ad platforms + cloud peers |
| AMZN | 261.06 | +0.1% | WMT | 105.38 | -4.8% | 0.99x | COST | 960.01 | +0.8% | 0.73x | Commerce / retail scale peers |
| NVDA | 213.05 | -0.7% | AMD | 479.18 | -1.1% | 0.73x | AVGO | 356.74 | -7.3% | 0.90x | AI / semiconductor peers |
| META | 570.05 | -0.9% | GOOGL | 346.96 | -0.2% | 0.78x | SNAP | 5.92 | +12.9% | 1.08x | Social / digital ads peers |
| TSLA | 350.25 | +2.0% | GM | 85.81 | -0.0% | 0.89x | F | 13.95 | -1.4% | 0.74x | Auto / EV peers |
Patents
USPTO · Mag7 · 21 grants
SOURCE USPTO · AS OF 27 AUG 2026 05:37 ET
| Symbol | Granted | Age | Patent | Title | Assignee |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| AAPL | 2026-05-05 | 4mo ago | USD1125246S1 | Display screen or portion thereof with icon | Apple Inc |
| NVDA | 2026-05-05 | 4mo ago | US12619596B2 | Automatical generation and maintenance of data cards for datasets | Nvidia Corporation |
| GOOGL | 2026-04-28 | 4mo ago | US12613915B2 | Structured video documents | Google LLC |
| AMZN | 2026-04-28 | 4mo ago | USD1123902S1 | Electronic device | Amazon Technologies, Inc |
| AMZN | 2026-04-28 | 4mo ago | USJPCAUSD1123902S1 | Electronic device | Amazon Technologies, Inc. |
| GOOGL | 2026-04-21 | 5mo ago | US12608369B2 | Methods, systems, and computer readable media related to generating a combined search query based on search parameters | Google LLC |
| META | 2026-04-21 | 5mo ago | US12608435B2 | Accessing content via a logged-out experience | Meta Platforms, Inc. |
| AMZN | 2026-04-14 | 5mo ago | USD1122257S1 | Electronic device | Amazon Technologies, Inc |
| NVDA | 2026-04-14 | 5mo ago | US12602332B1 | Distributed page table, memory map and routing table for multiple node computing systems | Nvidia Corporation |
| AMZN | 2026-04-07 | 5mo ago | USD1121603S1 | Wireless connectivity device | Amazon Technologies, Inc |
| META | 2026-04-07 | 5mo ago | US12597444B2 | Systems and methods for automated digital editing | Meta Platforms, Inc. |
| AAPL | 2026-04-07 | 5mo ago | USD1121665S1 | Display screen or portion thereof with a group of graphical user interfaces | Apple Inc |
| AMZN | 2026-04-07 | 5mo ago | USD1121705S1 | Camera mount | Amazon Technologies, Inc |
| NVDA | 2026-04-07 | 5mo ago | US12596148B1 | Jitter injection generator for measuring phase noise and jitter transfer function | Nvidia Corporation |
| TSLA | 2026-03-24 | 6mo ago | US12583274B2 | Compliant mechanism for suspension height sensor | Tesla, Inc |
| AAPL | 2026-03-24 | 6mo ago | USD1119859S1 | Headphones | Apple Inc |
| MSFT | 2026-03-24 | 6mo ago | US12585346B2 | Double-wheel assembly | Microsoft Technology Licensing, Llc |
| NVDA | 2026-03-24 | 6mo ago | US12587227B2 | Dynamic bit inversion for reduced overhead DC-balanced coding | Nvidia Corporation |
| AAPL | 2026-03-17 | 6mo ago | USD1118748S1 | Type font | Apple Inc |
| MSFT | 2026-03-17 | 6mo ago | US12580979B2 | Bidirectional mapping between applications and network content | Microsoft Technology Licensing, Llc |
| NVDA | 2026-03-17 | 6mo ago | US12581100B1 | Video encoding using reconstruction of spatially decimated frames | Nvidia Corporation |