BUD FOX RESEARCH · MAGNIFICENT SEVEN
Mag7 Desk Note #52
FRIDAY, AUGUST 21, 2026
OPEN PREVIEWDESK NOTE 052 · 21 AUG 2026 · 07:40 ET
Published 7:40 AM ET · Market data through 6:51 AM ET
Leadership
MSFT strongest trend · META cleanest relative
Positioning
3/7 ABOVE EMA20 · 11% AVG CONV
Risk
4/7 BELOW EMA20 · META WEAKEST RELATIVE
Watch
NVDA +0.6% vs EMA20
Deltas
Since last note
- CHANGED Above-EMA20 5 → 3; AAPL (+1.4% → -0.3%) and AMZN (+1.8% → -0.3%) both round-tripped in one session.
- CHANGED Complex-wide IV collapse: AAPL -20.5pts, AMZN -22.2pts IV30, both front-months flipping to put premium.
- CHANGED COMPS shifted: TSLA's edge over GM/F closed to in-line from +2.6pp; META insider distribution now visible.
Desk Synthesis
Executive Takeaway
Breadth gave back the reclaim — three above EMA20 versus five yesterday, with AAPL and AMZN failing within a single session on sub-0.8x RVOL. The real signal isn't the equity tape, it's the vol tape: implied vol was marked sharply lower across AAPL/AMZN/GOOGL and front-month premiums inverted put-heavy, while gold (+15% 21d) and silver (+21%) bid hard. Cheap equity insurance plus aggressive metals hedging into an NVDA print and Jackson Hole is not a coherent risk-on setup. Everything reads NEUTRAL, ceiling 31%.
Positioning
- NVDA is leadership by peer attrition, not extension: +6.4pp over AMD/AVGO but only +0.6% trend cushion, and its own edge narrowed from +7.8pp. Size to the 8/26 print; don't chase.
- MSFT is the cleanest platform stance (+3.9pp over GOOGL/AMZN) but flow disagrees — P/C volume 0.64 → 1.40 with IV-RV still -33.5 pts. Hold, not add.
- META stays an avoid, not a value entry: RSI 37.0, 9th percentile, 5.7pp behind GOOGL/SNAP, CFO Li distributing across a dozen tranches on 8/18 into a pending Instagram trial.
- AMZN's 4.4pp "outperformance" of WMT/COST is mostly WMT at -7.8% — Claude's catch. Peer collapse, not share gain.
Key Risks
- The upstream tape stays broken: KLAC -11.1%, AMAT -7.1%, SMH -4.5% over five sessions. Mega-cap breadth has been multiple repair, not confirmed AI capex.
- 10Y 4.72%, VIX 14.63, HY OAS 2.71% — credit still isn't pricing duration risk to AI multiples.
- False comfort: option-row spots are cached above current prints (NVDA 223.96 vs 216.85; META 592.10 vs 545.83). Don't read live skew off them.
Watch
NVDA +0.6% vs EMA20 into 8/26 AMC (EPS est 2.13, rev est $93.6B) — the only name whose IV30 (41.1%) was not marked down. Lose EMA20 and the equipment tape wins the argument.
What Changed
- Above-EMA20 5 → 3; AAPL (+1.4% → -0.3%) and AMZN (+1.8% → -0.3%) both round-tripped in one session.
- Complex-wide IV collapse: AAPL -20.5pts, AMZN -22.2pts IV30, both front-months flipping to put premium.
- COMPS shifted: TSLA's edge over GM/F closed to in-line from +2.6pp; META insider distribution now visible.
Universe
Magnificent Seven · 7 names
SOURCE Yahoo Finance · AS OF 21 AUG 2026 07:40 ET
Price = daily close · vs SPY = 24h relative · equity as of Aug 21, 7:40 AM ET · options as of Aug 21, 7:39 AM ET
| Symbol | Price | Trend | RSI | RVOL | RV20 | IV30 | IV−RV | Skew | vs SPY | Conv |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| AAPL | 311.30 | -0.3% | 48.9 | 0.77x | 36.0 | 16.8 | -19.2 | — | -0.91% | 7% |
| MSFT | 481.15 | +2.7% | 61.6 | 0.53x | 57.0 | 23.5 | -33.5 | — | +0.19% | 18% |
| GOOGL | 340.67 | -2.1% | 44.0 | 0.62x | 38.8 | 23.0 | -15.7 | — | -0.33% | 10% |
| AMZN | 260.11 | -0.3% | 50.9 | 0.58x | 59.6 | 20.2 | -39.4 | — | -1.32% | 0% |
| NVDA | 216.85 | +0.6% | 53.4 | 0.78x | 38.2 | 41.1 | +2.8 | — | +0.51% | 31% |
| META | 545.83 | -5.9% | 37.0 | 0.80x | 47.2 | 36.7 | -10.5 | — | +0.80% | 9% |
| TSLA | 345.13 | +1.5% | 50.4 | 0.78x | 34.6 | 42.7 | +8.1 | — | -0.87% | 0% |
Community
TradingView strategies · Mag7
Strategy bench not available this generation.
Macro
US macro + FX · 13 series
SOURCE FRED · AS OF 21 AUG 2026 04:00 ET
| Series | Label | Latest | Change | As of |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| DFF | Fed funds effective | 3.63% | +0.00 | 2026-08-19 |
| DGS2 | 2Y Treasury | 4.19% | +0.00 | 2026-08-19 |
| DGS10 | 10Y Treasury | 4.72% | +0.04 | 2026-08-17 LAGGED |
| T10Y2Y | 10Y–2Y spread · legs imply +0.53 as of 2026-08-19 | 0.51% | +0.03 | 2026-08-14 LAGGED |
| T10YIE | 10Y breakeven inflation | 2.27% | +0.03 | 2026-08-14 LAGGED |
| BAMLH0A0HYM2 | HY OAS | 2.71% | +0.00 | 2026-08-13 LAGGED |
| UNRATE | Unemployment rate | 4.10% | -0.10 | 2026-07-01 LAGGED |
| CPIAUCSL | CPI (all urban, SA) | 332.8 | +3.54% YoY | 2026-07-01 LAGGED |
| DTWEXBGS | Broad USD index | 119.1 | -0.45 | 2026-08-07 LAGGED |
| DEXUSEU | EURUSD | 1.1559 | +0.0038 | 2026-08-07 LAGGED |
| DEXJPUS | USDJPY | 157.54 | -0.91 | 2026-08-07 LAGGED |
| DEXCHUS | USDCNY (CNH proxy) | 6.7474 | -0.0014 | 2026-08-07 LAGGED |
| VIXCLS | VIX | 14.63 | +0.08 | 2026-08-13 LAGGED |
Metals
Precious & auto metals · 5
SOURCE Yahoo Finance · Futures · AS OF 21 AUG 2026 07:38 ET
Pt / Pd / Ag / Au + Cu
| ID | Metal | Price | 1d | 5d | 21d | Auto relevance |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| PL | Platinum | $1,895.1 | +3.50% | +8.29% | +18.51% | Catalytic converters (ICE); cost input for auto OEMs / suppliers |
| PA | Palladium | $1,359.5 | +1.74% | +2.80% | +8.30% | Gasoline catalytic converters; sharp moves hit auto input costs |
| SI | Silver | $69.99 | +2.89% | +7.70% | +21.09% | Electronics / EV contacts; industrial demand proxy |
| GC | Gold | $4,654.3 | +3.06% | +6.25% | +15.02% | Macro risk / real-rate proxy; can affect auto valuation multiples |
| HG | Copper | $6.6030 | +2.21% | +0.05% | +4.73% | EV wiring / motors; not precious but core auto cost input |
Power
Power & energy · 6
SOURCE Yahoo Finance · AS OF 21 AUG 2026 07:38 ET
Oil / gas / utilities / uranium for AI & industrial power costs
| ID | Name | Price | 1d | 5d | 21d | Relevance |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| CL | WTI crude | $86.38 | -1.65% | +4.83% | -6.30% | Oil complex; logistics & broader industrial cost pressure |
| BZ | Brent crude | $93.36 | -0.45% | +5.47% | -7.28% | Global oil benchmark; energy inflation proxy |
| NG | Natural gas | $2.784 | +1.87% | +1.87% | -4.53% | US power-gen feedstock; data-center / utility cost sensitivity |
| XLU | Utilities ETF | 43.77 | -0.57% | -0.61% | -4.70% | Grid / power-utility equity basket; AI power demand narrative |
| URA | Uranium ETF | 43.84 | -2.60% | -3.12% | +7.01% | Nuclear fuel chain; long-duration AI power buildout proxy |
| XLE | Energy Select ETF | 63.75 | +0.27% | +4.41% | +7.69% | Integrated energy equity beta |
Semis
Semiconductor supply chain · 6
SOURCE Yahoo Finance · AS OF 21 AUG 2026 07:38 ET
Foundry + equipment bottleneck tape
| ID | Name | Price | 1d | 5d | 21d | Relevance |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SMH | Semi ETF (SMH) | 562.65 | +0.31% | -4.49% | -4.13% | Broad semiconductor supply-chain beta |
| TSM | TSMC | $416.00 | +0.95% | -3.37% | -1.24% | Leading-edge foundry capacity for NVDA / Apple / AMD |
| ASML | ASML | $1,750.3 | -0.08% | -5.28% | -2.74% | EUV lithography bottleneck for advanced nodes |
| AMAT | Applied Materials | $496.21 | +0.11% | -7.07% | -10.32% | Wafer fab equipment — deposition / etch / CMP |
| LRCX | Lam Research | $310.53 | +1.09% | -7.86% | -2.74% | Etch / deposition equipment for logic & memory |
| KLAC | KLA | $185.86 | -0.75% | -11.13% | -13.33% | Process control / inspection — yield bottleneck |
Gases
Specialty gases · 3
SOURCE Yahoo Finance · AS OF 21 AUG 2026 07:38 ET
Industrial-gas proxies for fab specialty gases
| ID | Name | Price | 1d | 5d | 21d | Relevance |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| LIN | Linde | $481.29 | +0.03% | +0.65% | -5.38% | Largest industrial gas franchise; fab specialty-gas exposure |
| APD | Air Products | $300.33 | -0.95% | -1.70% | +1.12% | Hydrogen / electronic gases for semiconductors & refining |
| AIQUY | Air Liquide ADR | $38.98 | +0.41% | +0.10% | -3.20% | Electronics / specialty gases for chip manufacturing |
News
Mag7 headlines · 7
SOURCE News wire · AS OF 21 AUG 2026 07:38 ET
| Symbol | Name | Headlines |
|---|---|---|
| AAPL | Apple | |
| MSFT | Microsoft | |
| GOOGL | Alphabet | |
| AMZN | Amazon | |
| NVDA | NVIDIA | |
| META | Meta | |
| TSLA | Tesla |
News
Front-page semantics
No front-page news extraction in this generation.
Influencers
Donald J. Trump · Truth Social · 7
SOURCE Trump's Truth · AS OF 24 AUG 2026 06:51 ET
| Symbol | Name | Date | Latest Truth |
|---|---|---|---|
| AAPL | Apple | July 10, 2026, 8:19 PM | |
| MSFT | Microsoft | August 10, 2024, 11:01 PM | |
| GOOGL | Alphabet | August 17, 2024, 8:15 AM | |
| AMZN | Amazon | December 30, 2025, 4:18 PM | |
| NVDA | NVIDIA | July 27, 2026, 7:20 PM | |
| META | Meta | February 9, 2023, 1:46 PM | |
| TSLA | Tesla | March 11, 2025, 4:12 PM |
Options
Mag7 options · 7
SOURCE Options · Massive · AS OF 21 AUG 2026 07:39 ET
Front expiry ATM IV · put/call
| Symbol | Spot | Expiry | ATM IV | P/C vol | P/C OI | Skew |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| AAPL | 316.83 | 2026-09-18 | 16.8% | 0.64 | — | — |
| MSFT | 484.31 | 2026-09-18 | 23.5% | 1.40 | — | — |
| GOOGL | 344.72 | 2026-09-18 | 23.0% | 0.29 | — | — |
| AMZN | 265.84 | 2026-09-18 | 20.2% | 0.23 | — | — |
| NVDA | 223.96 | 2026-09-04 | 41.1% | 0.12 | — | — |
| META | 592.10 | 2026-09-04 | 36.7% | 1.07 | — | — |
| TSLA | 328.58 | 2026-09-04 | 42.7% | 0.13 | — | — |
Alt data
Congress trades · Mag7 · 20
SOURCE Capitol Trades · AS OF 21 AUG 2026 07:39 ET
STOCK Act disclosures
| Symbol | Side | Range | Member | Party / chamber | Date |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| AAPL | sell | 100K–250K | Shri Thanedar | Democrat · House | 2026-01-08 |
| AAPL | buy | 1K–15K | Tracey Mann | Republican · House | 2024-08-19 |
| GOOGL | buy | 1K–15K | Tracey Mann | Republican · House | 2024-08-19 |
| GOOGL | buy | 1K–15K | David Taylor | Republican · House | 2026-07-16 |
| MSFT | buy | 1K–15K | David Taylor | Republican · House | 2026-07-23 |
| AAPL | sell | 1K–15K | David Taylor | Republican · House | 2026-07-23 |
| MSFT | buy | 50K–100K | Scott Peters | Democrat · House | 2026-07-29 |
| MSFT | buy | 15K–50K | Scott Peters | Democrat · House | 2026-07-27 |
| MSFT | buy | 500K–1M | Scott Peters | Democrat · House | 2026-07-26 |
| MSFT | sell | 50K–100K | Scott Peters | Democrat · House | 2026-07-26 |
| MSFT | buy | 1K–15K | David Taylor | Republican · House | 2026-08-07 |
| GOOGL | buy | 1K–15K | Josh Gottheimer | Democrat · House | 2026-08-11 |
| MSFT | sell | 50K–100K | Scott Peters | Democrat · House | 2026-07-23 |
| MSFT | sell | 50K–100K | Scott Peters | Democrat · House | 2026-07-22 |
| MSFT | sell | 250K–500K | Scott Peters | Democrat · House | 2026-07-21 |
| GOOGL | buy | 1K–15K | David Taylor | Republican · House | 2026-08-07 |
| AMZN | sell | 1K–15K | Josh Gottheimer | Democrat · House | 2026-07-16 |
| AAPL | buy | 1K–15K | John Boozman | Republican · Senate | 2026-07-08 |
| GOOGL | buy | 1K–15K | Josh Gottheimer | Democrat · House | 2026-07-23 |
| GOOGL | sell | 1K–15K | Josh Gottheimer | Democrat · House | 2026-07-16 |
Alt data
Insider trades · Mag7 · 20
SOURCE SEC EDGAR · AS OF 21 AUG 2026 07:38 ET
Open-market purchases / sales
| Symbol | Side | Shares | Price | Filer | Title | Date |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| AAPL | Sale | 1,439 | 307.49 | Newstead Jennifer | SVP, GC and Secretary | 2026-08-18 |
| META | Sale | 1,559 | 558.00 | Mahoney Curtis J. | Chief Legal Officer | 2026-08-18 |
| META | Sale | 1,845 | 547.51 | LI SUSAN J | Chief Financial Officer | 2026-08-18 |
| META | Sale | 1,864 | 548.20 | LI SUSAN J | Chief Financial Officer | 2026-08-18 |
| META | Sale | 1,219 | 549.25 | LI SUSAN J | Chief Financial Officer | 2026-08-18 |
| META | Sale | 708 | 550.20 | LI SUSAN J | Chief Financial Officer | 2026-08-18 |
| META | Sale | 1,031 | 551.25 | LI SUSAN J | Chief Financial Officer | 2026-08-18 |
| META | Sale | 561 | 552.47 | LI SUSAN J | Chief Financial Officer | 2026-08-18 |
| META | Sale | 768 | 553.42 | LI SUSAN J | Chief Financial Officer | 2026-08-18 |
| META | Sale | 160 | 554.39 | LI SUSAN J | Chief Financial Officer | 2026-08-18 |
| META | Sale | 40 | 555.83 | LI SUSAN J | Chief Financial Officer | 2026-08-18 |
| META | Sale | 720 | 557.57 | LI SUSAN J | Chief Financial Officer | 2026-08-18 |
| META | Sale | 120 | 558.12 | LI SUSAN J | Chief Financial Officer | 2026-08-18 |
| META | Sale | 40 | 559.59 | LI SUSAN J | Chief Financial Officer | 2026-08-18 |
| META | Sale | 120 | 560.63 | LI SUSAN J | Chief Financial Officer | 2026-08-18 |
| AMZN | Sale | 1,441 | 262.05 | Herrington Douglas J | CEO Worldwide Amazon Stores | 2026-08-17 |
| AMZN | Sale | 1,900 | 262.82 | Herrington Douglas J | CEO Worldwide Amazon Stores | 2026-08-17 |
| AMZN | Sale | 400 | 265.09 | Herrington Douglas J | CEO Worldwide Amazon Stores | 2026-08-17 |
| AAPL | Sale | 1,439 | 307.75 | Newstead Jennifer | SVP, GC and Secretary | 2026-08-11 |
| MSFT | Sale | 10,000 | 487.89 | Althoff Judson | CEO Microsoft Commercial | 2026-08-05 |
Alt data
Short interest · Mag7 · 7
SOURCE Short interest · AS OF 21 AUG 2026 07:38 ET
Days to cover = SI ÷ ADV
| Symbol | Short interest | ADV | Days to cover | Δ SI | Settlement |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| AAPL | 141.61M | 58.40M | 2.42 | -3.4% | 2026-07-31 |
| MSFT | 81.31M | 40.02M | 2.03 | -12.0% | 2026-07-31 |
| GOOGL | 70.49M | 34.70M | 2.03 | -10.4% | 2026-07-31 |
| AMZN | 98.43M | 51.02M | 1.93 | -7.6% | 2026-07-31 |
| NVDA | 292.67M | 127.01M | 2.30 | -9.7% | 2026-07-31 |
| META | 31.46M | 17.11M | 1.84 | -16.9% | 2026-07-31 |
| TSLA | 68.50M | 44.21M | 1.55 | -3.0% | 2026-07-31 |
Calendar
Earnings · Mag7 · 2
SOURCE Finnhub · AS OF 21 AUG 2026 07:38 ET
Window 2026-08-07 → 2026-10-20 · EPS actual / estimate
| Symbol | Date | Timing | Session | Period | EPS A/E |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| NVDA | 2026-08-26 | In 5d | AMC | Q2 2027 | — / 2.13 |
| TSLA | 2026-10-20 | In 60d | AMC | Q3 2026 | — / 0.44 |
| AAPL | No print in window | ||||
| AMZN | No print in window | ||||
| GOOGL | No print in window | ||||
| META | No print in window | ||||
| MSFT | No print in window | ||||
Comps
Competitive peers · Mag7 · 7
SOURCE Competitive peers · AS OF 21 AUG 2026 07:38 ET
| Primary | Price | Trend | Peer 1 | Price | Trend | RVOL | Peer 2 | Price | Trend | RVOL | Note |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| AAPL | 311.30 | -0.3% | MSFT | 481.15 | +2.7% | 0.53x | GOOGL | 340.67 | -2.1% | 0.62x | Platform + consumer software peers |
| MSFT | 481.15 | +2.7% | GOOGL | 340.67 | -2.1% | 0.62x | AMZN | 260.11 | -0.3% | 0.58x | Cloud / enterprise software peers |
| GOOGL | 340.67 | -2.1% | META | 545.83 | -5.9% | 0.80x | MSFT | 481.15 | +2.7% | 0.53x | Ad platforms + cloud peers |
| AMZN | 260.11 | -0.3% | WMT | 103.84 | -7.8% | 3.81x | COST | 933.51 | -1.8% | 1.40x | Commerce / retail scale peers |
| NVDA | 216.85 | +0.6% | AMD | 469.46 | -4.1% | 0.55x | AVGO | 364.03 | -7.4% | 1.01x | AI / semiconductor peers |
| META | 545.83 | -5.9% | GOOGL | 340.67 | -2.1% | 0.62x | SNAP | 5.21 | +1.7% | 0.69x | Social / digital ads peers |
| TSLA | 345.13 | +1.5% | GM | 86.15 | +0.8% | 0.83x | F | 13.99 | -1.2% | 0.81x | Auto / EV peers |
Patents
USPTO · Mag7 · 21 grants
SOURCE USPTO · AS OF 21 AUG 2026 07:39 ET
| Symbol | Granted | Age | Patent | Title | Assignee |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| AAPL | 2026-05-05 | 4mo ago | USD1125246S1 | Display screen or portion thereof with icon | Apple Inc |
| GOOGL | 2026-04-28 | 4mo ago | US12613915B2 | Structured video documents | Google LLC |
| AMZN | 2026-04-28 | 4mo ago | USD1123902S1 | Electronic device | Amazon Technologies, Inc |
| AMZN | 2026-04-28 | 4mo ago | USJPCAUSD1123902S1 | Electronic device | Amazon Technologies, Inc. |
| GOOGL | 2026-04-21 | 5mo ago | US12608369B2 | Methods, systems, and computer readable media related to generating a combined search query based on search parameters of a current search query of a user and search parameters of one or more previously submitted search quer(ies) of the user that are determined to be of the same line of inquiry as … | Google LLC |
| META | 2026-04-21 | 5mo ago | US12608435B2 | Accessing content via a logged-out experience | Meta Platforms, Inc |
| AMZN | 2026-04-14 | 5mo ago | USD1122257S1 | Electronic device | Amazon Technologies, Inc |
| NVDA | 2026-04-14 | 5mo ago | US12602332B1 | Distributed page table, memory map and routing table for multiple node … | NVIDIA Corporation |
| AMZN | 2026-04-07 | 5mo ago | USD1121603S1 | Wireless connectivity device | Amazon Technologies, Inc |
| META | 2026-04-07 | 5mo ago | US12597444B2 | Systems and methods for automated digital editing | Meta Platforms, Inc |
| AAPL | 2026-04-07 | 5mo ago | USD1121665S1 | Display screen or portion thereof with a group of graphical user interfaces | Apple Inc |
| AMZN | 2026-04-07 | 5mo ago | USD1121705S1 | Camera mount | Amazon Technologies, Inc |
| NVDA | 2026-04-07 | 5mo ago | US12596148B1 | Jitter injection generator for measuring phase noise and jitter transfer … | NVIDIA Corporation |
| TSLA | 2026-03-24 | 6mo ago | US12583274B2 | Compliant mechanism for suspension height sensor | Tesla, Inc |
| AAPL | 2026-03-24 | 6mo ago | USD1119859S1 | Headphones | Apple Inc |
| MSFT | 2026-03-24 | 6mo ago | US12585346B2 | Double-wheel assembly | Microsoft Technology Licensing, LLC |
| NVDA | 2026-03-24 | 6mo ago | US12587227B2 | Dynamic bit inversion for reduced overhead DC-balanced coding | NVIDIA Corporation |
| AAPL | 2026-03-17 | 6mo ago | USD1118748S1 | Type font | Apple Inc |
| MSFT | 2026-03-17 | 6mo ago | US12580979B2 | Bidirectional mapping between applications and network content | Microsoft Technology Licensing, LLC |
| NVDA | 2026-03-17 | 6mo ago | US12581100B1 | Video encoding using reconstruction of spatially decimated frames | NVIDIA Corporation |
| TSLA | 2026-03-17 | 6mo ago | US12576807B2 | Vehicle hood hinge assembly | Tesla, Inc |