BUD FOX RESEARCH · MAGNIFICENT SEVEN

Bud

Mag7 desk

Mag7 Desk Note #42

WEDNESDAY, AUGUST 12, 2026

OPEN PREVIEWDESK NOTE 042 · 12 AUG 2026 · 07:03 ET

Published 7:03 AM ET · Market data through 7:08 AM ET

Leadership

MSFT strongest trend · META cleanest relative

Positioning

4/7 ABOVE EMA20 · 11% AVG CONV

Risk

3/7 BELOW EMA20 · AAPL WEAKEST RELATIVE

Watch

META +0.3% vs EMA20

Deltas

Since last note

CHANGED COMPS populated (was n/a in the prior FACTS block) — laggards now peer-confirmed, not just trend-weak.
CHANGED Form 4 flow now available and uniformly sales across MSFT/META/AMZN. Note: the prior note's Bezos AMZN sale is not in this FACTS block; do not carry it forward.
CHANGED Six [NEW] headlines, all narrative: Burry on NVDA, IBD CPI preview, MSFT view-change, AMZN valuation defense, Zuckerberg manifesto, WSJ Tesla–SpaceX merger.

Desk Synthesis

Executive Takeaway

Nothing in the grid moved: same prices, same 4/3 EMA20 split, seven NEUTRALs, 31% conviction ceiling at NVDA. What changed is the reporting stack — COMPS and Form 4 flow are now visible in FACTS — which converts a tape-weak laggard call into a peer-confirmed one. Trade dispersion, not beta.

Positioning

MSFT is the only clean structural lead (+11.8% vs EMA20, +10.5pp over GOOGL/AMZN) and the worst entry in the group at RSI 77.7 — mean-reversion candidate, not new capital.
AMZN (+4.8pp vs WMT/COST, 84th %ile) and NVDA (+3.9pp vs AMD/AVGO, with AMD trending -4.0%) are the peer-clearing relative longs; respect that FACTS marks AMZN at 0% conviction.
Fund from AAPL (-8.2pp vs MSFT/GOOGL, sub-EMA20, SI +4.3%), GOOGL (-8.4pp vs META/MSFT) and TSLA (-3.1pp vs GM/F with GM +4.5%, 18th %ile).

Key Risks

The vol "gift" stays suspect: MSFT and AMZN both show IV-RV -32.8 pts off RV20 of 57–62% — realized-vol artifact until verified, not free optionality.
Distribution caps the leadership call: one-way Form 4 sales in MSFT (Althoff 10,000 @ 487.89, Numoto), META (Andreessen, Kimmitt) and AMZN (Herrington), plus MSFT P/C volume 2.96.
Narrative risk on NVDA is now two-sided — Burry's "Wall Street stunt" attack against the [SEEN] Bloomberg credit-soothing piece — with no price confirmation either way.

Watch

META +0.3% vs EMA20 — lose it and above-EMA20 breadth falls to three, isolating MSFT/AMZN/NVDA; META already lags GOOGL/SNAP by 3.4pp with SNAP +9.8%.

What Changed

COMPS populated (was n/a in the prior FACTS block) — laggards now peer-confirmed, not just trend-weak.
Form 4 flow now available and uniformly sales across MSFT/META/AMZN. Note: the prior note's Bezos AMZN sale is not in this FACTS block; do not carry it forward.
Six [NEW] headlines, all narrative: Burry on NVDA, IBD CPI preview, MSFT view-change, AMZN valuation defense, Zuckerberg manifesto, WSJ Tesla–SpaceX merger.

Universe

Magnificent Seven · 7 names

SOURCE Yahoo Finance · AS OF 12 AUG 2026 07:03 ET

Price = daily close · vs SPY = 24h relative · equity as of Aug 12, 7:03 AM ET · options as of Aug 12, 7:40 AM ET

Symbol	Price	Trend	RSI	RVOL	RV20	IV30	IV−RV	Skew	vs SPY	Conv
AAPL	304.91	-3.4%	41.9	0.66x	38.4	23.9	-14.5	—	-0.77%	7%
MSFT	503.81	+11.8%	77.7	0.58x	57.2	24.4	-32.8	—	-0.13%	18%
GOOGL	343.80	-2.3%	45.9	0.89x	52.6	29.6	-23.0	—	-3.52%	10%
AMZN	272.27	+5.1%	61.0	0.64x	62.2	29.4	-32.8	—	-1.77%	0%
NVDA	217.50	+3.8%	58.0	0.80x	39.4	41.1	+1.6	—	+0.30%	31%
META	599.12	+0.3%	49.9	0.77x	45.6	36.7	-8.9	—	+1.03%	9%
TSLA	332.81	-1.7%	43.5	0.60x	64.2	42.7	-21.5	—	+0.90%	0%

Community

TradingView strategies · Mag7

Strategy bench not available this generation.

Macro

US macro + FX · 9 series

SOURCE FRED · AS OF 12 AUG 2026 04:00 ET

Series	Label	Latest	Change	As of
DFF	Fed funds effective	3.63%	+0.00	2026-08-10
DGS2	2Y Treasury	4.25%	+0.06	2026-08-10
DGS10	10Y Treasury	4.72%	+0.07	2026-08-10
T10Y2Y	10Y–2Y spread · legs imply +0.47 as of 2026-08-10	0.46%	+0.02	2026-08-07 LAGGED
T10YIE	10Y breakeven inflation	2.25%	-0.01	2026-08-07 LAGGED
UNRATE	Unemployment rate	4.10%	-0.10	2026-07-01 LAGGED
CPIAUCSL	CPI (all urban, SA)	332.6	+3.73% YoY	2026-06-01 LAGGED
DTWEXBGS	Broad USD index	119.7	+0.03	2026-07-31 LAGGED
VIXCLS	VIX	15.15	-0.66	2026-08-06 LAGGED

Metals

Precious & auto metals · 5

SOURCE Yahoo Finance · Futures · AS OF 12 AUG 2026 07:00 ET

Pt / Pd / Ag / Au + Cu

ID	Metal	Price	1d	5d	21d	Auto relevance
PL	Platinum	$1,780.5	+1.99%	+2.48%	+9.13%	Catalytic converters (ICE); cost input for auto OEMs / suppliers
PA	Palladium	$1,391	+1.82%	+1.93%	+7.12%	Gasoline catalytic converters; sharp moves hit auto input costs
SI	Silver	$66.32	+2.39%	+6.79%	+12.83%	Electronics / EV contacts; industrial demand proxy
GC	Gold	$4,469	+1.96%	+5.26%	+10.04%	Macro risk / real-rate proxy; can affect auto valuation multiples
HG	Copper	$6.6740	+0.94%	-0.43%	+5.43%	EV wiring / motors; not precious but core auto cost input

Power

Power & energy · 6

SOURCE Yahoo Finance · AS OF 12 AUG 2026 07:00 ET

Oil / gas / utilities / uranium for AI & industrial power costs

ID	Name	Price	1d	5d	21d	Relevance
CL	WTI crude	$83.50	+0.36%	+11.01%	+5.24%	Oil complex; logistics & broader industrial cost pressure
BZ	Brent crude	$89.22	+0.35%	+12.30%	+5.30%	Global oil benchmark; energy inflation proxy
NG	Natural gas	$2.794	+0.98%	+3.94%	-3.79%	US power-gen feedstock; data-center / utility cost sensitivity
XLU	Utilities ETF	43.63	+1.16%	-1.09%	-4.57%	Grid / power-utility equity basket; AI power demand narrative
URA	Uranium ETF	45.17	+1.78%	+6.31%	+10.93%	Nuclear fuel chain; long-duration AI power buildout proxy
XLE	Energy Select ETF	60.93	+1.25%	+4.12%	+7.38%	Integrated energy equity beta

Semis

Semiconductor supply chain · 6

SOURCE Yahoo Finance · AS OF 12 AUG 2026 07:00 ET

Foundry + equipment bottleneck tape

ID	Name	Price	1d	5d	21d	Relevance
SMH	Semi ETF (SMH)	572.93	+0.62%	-0.48%	-2.17%	Broad semiconductor supply-chain beta
TSM	TSMC	$422.06	+0.86%	+1.17%	+0.11%	Leading-edge foundry capacity for NVDA / Apple / AMD
ASML	ASML	$1,799.4	+3.80%	+5.11%	+4.38%	EUV lithography bottleneck for advanced nodes
AMAT	Applied Materials	$525.61	+0.67%	-3.84%	-8.65%	Wafer fab equipment — deposition / etch / CMP
LRCX	Lam Research	$311.41	+1.64%	-1.99%	-5.61%	Etch / deposition equipment for logic & memory
KLAC	KLA	$200.47	+4.01%	+2.57%	-9.80%	Process control / inspection — yield bottleneck

Gases

Specialty gases · 3

SOURCE Yahoo Finance · AS OF 12 AUG 2026 07:00 ET

Industrial-gas proxies for fab specialty gases

ID	Name	Price	1d	5d	21d	Relevance
LIN	Linde	$490.53	-0.39%	+1.22%	-6.67%	Largest industrial gas franchise; fab specialty-gas exposure
APD	Air Products	$309.31	+0.37%	+4.95%	+2.43%	Hydrogen / electronic gases for semiconductors & refining
AIQUY	Air Liquide ADR	$39.58	+0.15%	-0.25%	-1.42%	Electronics / specialty gases for chip manufacturing

News

Mag7 headlines · 7

SOURCE News wire · AS OF 12 AUG 2026 07:00 ET

Symbol	Name	Headlines
AAPL	Apple	10 Information Technology Stocks Whale Activity In Today’s Session Benzinga · 17 hours ago Jefferies downgrades Apple stock to sell over canceled glass iPhone Yahoo Finance · 22 hours ago Apple Stock Downgraded to Sell as Analyst Claims All-Glass iPhone Is Dead Barron's · 1 day ago
MSFT	Microsoft	I've Been Wrong About Microsoft Stock for Years. Here's Why I'm Finally Changing My Mind. NEW The Motley Fool · 39 minutes ago MSFT Vs Its Peers: The Return Does Not Match The Rank Trefis · 13 hours ago Microsoft stock just cleared a big hurdle but still trails the S&P 500 Yahoo Finance · 22 hours ago
GOOGL	Alphabet	Alphabet (NASDAQ:GOOGL) Stock Price Down 3.8% - Time to Sell? MarketBeat · 13 hours ago Alphabet Stock Drops 1.5% as DeepMind Turnover Deepens Yahoo Finance · 16 hours ago Alphabet's AI Story No Longer Runs Through The Business That Funds Everything Else Yahoo Finance · 16 hours ago
AMZN	Amazon	Amazon Grew Revenue 20%. Here's the Only Reason I Can Think Of for Why Amazon Trades at Just 22 Times Forward Earnings. NEW The Globe and Mail · 2 hours ago What Could Push AMZN Stock Higher From Here? Trefis · 13 hours ago Amazon eyes $5B data center in Greater Cincinnati The Business Journals · 19 hours ago
NVDA	NVIDIA	Michael Burry Calls Nvidia’s $500 Billion AI Financing Push a ‘Wall Street Stunt’: ‘Meet the New Boss…' NEW Yahoo Finance · 36 minutes ago Futures: Three AI Winners Late; CPI Report Due NEW Investor's Business Daily · 5 hours ago Nvidia’s Show of Financial Force Soothes Jittery Credit Markets Bloomberg.com · 9 hours ago
META	Meta	Zuckerberg manifesto sketches out Meta’s ambitions for world-changing AI technology NEW Jamaica Gleaner · 6 hours ago Manus to Return as an Independent Company as Meta Deal Unwinds The Information · 21 hours ago Zuckerberg lays out vision to put superintelligent AI in everyone's hands Fox Business · 1 day ago
TSLA	Tesla	See How a Tesla-SpaceX Merger Gives Musk a Shortcut to His $1 Trillion Payday NEW WSJ · 36 minutes ago Elon Musk Says Optimus Will Be a $10 Trillion Business. Here Are 2 Industrial Stocks That Could Actually Cash In The Motley Fool · 1 hour ago Tesla has one big financial question to answer for investors: Morgan Stanley Teslarati · 11 hours ago

News

Front-page semantics

No front-page news extraction in this generation.

Influencers

Donald J. Trump · Truth Social · 7

SOURCE Trump's Truth · AS OF 12 AUG 2026 07:00 ET

Symbol	Name	Date	Latest Truth
AAPL	Apple	July 10, 2026, 8:19 PM	Apple to invest $30 billion in US chip manufacturing: https://www.foxbusiness.com/media/apple-invest-30-billion-us-chip-manufacturing — Apple announced it is investing more than $30 billion in chip manufacturing in the U.S. that will produce a whopping 15 billion chips as part of its $600 billion … archive
MSFT	Microsoft	August 10, 2024, 11:01 PM	We were just informed by Microsoft Corporation that one of our many websites was hacked by the Iranian Government - Never a nice thing to do! They were only able to … archive
GOOGL	Alphabet	August 17, 2024, 8:15 AM	Google is a Crooked, Election Interference Machine. Totally Illegal, they will pay a big price for what they are doing! https://townhall.com/tipsheet/rebeccadowns/2024/08/16/rep-lance … archive
AMZN	Amazon	December 30, 2025, 4:18 PM	Amazon to invest up to $50B to build AI infrastructure for US government agencies: https://www.foxbusiness.com/markets/amazon-invest-up-50b-build-ai-infrastructure-us-government-agencies archive
NVDA	NVIDIA	July 27, 2026, 7:20 PM	NVIDIA: Building in America, for America: https://www.nvidia.com/en-us/made-in-usa/ — Together with our partners, NVIDIA is investing in American manufacturing, leading to more jobs and a new era of growth and prosperity. archive
META	Meta	February 9, 2023, 1:46 PM	Meta restores Trump's access to Facebook, Instagram following ban after Jan. 6 riothttps://www.washingtontimes.com/news/2023/feb/9/meta-restores-donald-trumps-access-facebook-instag/?utm_source … — Meta has restored former President Donald Trump’s access to Facebook and Instagram, allowing his return for the first time since banning him following the Capitol riot two years ago. archive
TSLA	Tesla	March 11, 2025, 4:12 PM	The Tesla Model S — BEAUTIFUL! archive

Options

Mag7 options · 7

SOURCE Options · Massive · AS OF 12 AUG 2026 07:40 ET

Front expiry ATM IV · put/call

Symbol	Spot	Expiry	ATM IV	P/C vol	P/C OI	Skew
AAPL	304.91	2026-09-11	23.9%	1.48	—	—
MSFT	503.81	2026-09-11	24.4%	2.96	—	—
GOOGL	343.80	2026-09-11	29.6%	1.39	—	—
AMZN	272.27	2026-09-11	29.4%	0.00	—	—
NVDA	223.96	2026-09-04	41.1%	0.12	—	—
META	592.10	2026-09-04	36.7%	1.07	—	—
TSLA	328.58	2026-09-04	42.7%	0.13	—	—

Alt data

Congress trades · Mag7 · 17

SOURCE Capitol Trades · AS OF 13 AUG 2026 07:08 ET

STOCK Act disclosures

Symbol	Side	Range	Member	Party / chamber	Date
GOOGL	buy	1K–15K	David Taylor	Republican · House	2026-07-16
MSFT	buy	1K–15K	David Taylor	Republican · House	2026-07-23
AAPL	sell	1K–15K	David Taylor	Republican · House	2026-07-23
MSFT	buy	1K–15K	David Taylor	Republican · House	2026-08-07
GOOGL	buy	1K–15K	Josh Gottheimer	Democrat · House	2026-08-11
GOOGL	buy	1K–15K	David Taylor	Republican · House	2026-08-07
AMZN	sell	1K–15K	Josh Gottheimer	Democrat · House	2026-07-16
GOOGL	buy	1K–15K	Josh Gottheimer	Democrat · House	2026-07-23
GOOGL	sell	1K–15K	Josh Gottheimer	Democrat · House	2026-07-16
GOOGL	buy	1K–15K	Josh Gottheimer	Democrat · House	2026-07-14
GOOGL	buy	1K–15K	Josh Gottheimer	Democrat · House	2026-07-22
AMZN	buy	1K–15K	John McGuire	Republican · House	2026-07-14
GOOGL	buy	1K–15K	Michael Rulli	Republican · House	2026-06-28
GOOGL	buy	1K–15K	Michael Rulli	Republican · House	2026-06-24
GOOGL	sell	1K–15K	Michael Rulli	Republican · House	2025-07-02
AMZN	sell	1K–15K	Michael Rulli	Republican · House	2025-07-02
AMZN	sell	1K–15K	Michael Rulli	Republican · House	2026-06-24

Alt data

Insider trades · Mag7 · 10

SOURCE SEC EDGAR · AS OF 12 AUG 2026 07:00 ET

Open-market purchases / sales

Symbol	Side	Shares	Price	Filer	Title	Date
MSFT	Sale	10,000	487.89	Althoff Judson	CEO Microsoft Commercial	2026-08-05
META	Sale	250	588.16	Andreessen Marc L	Director	2026-08-04
META	Sale	87	589.24	Andreessen Marc L	Director	2026-08-04
META	Sale	44	590.39	Andreessen Marc L	Director	2026-08-04
META	Sale	45	591.69	Andreessen Marc L	Director	2026-08-04
MSFT	Sale	4,810	496.48	Numoto Takeshi	EVP, Chief Marketing Officer	2026-08-04
AMZN	Sale	1,000	278.39	Herrington Douglas J	CEO Worldwide Amazon Stores	2026-08-03
META	Sale	500	561.56	KIMMITT ROBERT M	—	2026-08-03
AAPL	Sale	116	295.14	Borders Ben	Principal Accounting Officer	2026-06-16
TSLA	Sale	2,606	402.20	Taneja Vaibhav	Chief Financial Officer	2026-06-08

Alt data

Short interest · Mag7 · 7

SOURCE Short interest · AS OF 08 AUG 2026 16:48 ET

Days to cover = SI ÷ ADV

Symbol	Short interest	ADV	Days to cover	Δ SI	Settlement
AAPL	146.55M	47.95M	3.06	+4.3%	2026-07-15
MSFT	92.37M	32.42M	2.85	+3.7%	2026-07-15
GOOGL	78.67M	22.91M	3.43	-8.4%	2026-07-15
AMZN	106.57M	38.65M	2.76	+6.2%	2026-07-15
NVDA	324.05M	131.17M	2.47	+4.5%	2026-07-15
META	37.85M	23.55M	1.61	+9.7%	2026-07-15
TSLA	70.65M	39.66M	1.78	-10.7%	2026-07-15

Calendar

Earnings · Mag7

No Mag7 earnings in this generation.

Comps

Competitive peers · Mag7 · 7

SOURCE Competitive peers · AS OF 12 AUG 2026 07:00 ET

Primary	Price	Trend	Peer 1	Price	Trend	RVOL	Peer 2	Price	Trend	RVOL	Note
AAPL	304.91	-3.4%	MSFT	503.81	+11.8%	0.58x	GOOGL	343.80	-2.3%	0.89x	Platform + consumer software peers
MSFT	503.81	+11.8%	GOOGL	343.80	-2.3%	0.89x	AMZN	272.27	+5.1%	0.64x	Cloud / enterprise software peers
GOOGL	343.80	-2.3%	META	599.12	+0.3%	0.77x	MSFT	503.81	+11.8%	0.58x	Ad platforms + cloud peers
AMZN	272.27	+5.1%	WMT	113.26	+0.8%	0.77x	COST	944.32	-0.3%	0.89x	Commerce / retail scale peers
NVDA	217.50	+3.8%	AMD	474.32	-4.0%	0.60x	AVGO	416.08	+3.7%	0.69x	AI / semiconductor peers
META	599.12	+0.3%	GOOGL	343.80	-2.3%	0.89x	SNAP	5.51	+9.8%	0.83x	Social / digital ads peers
TSLA	332.81	-1.7%	GM	89.35	+4.5%	0.66x	F	13.98	-1.8%	0.67x	Auto / EV peers

Patents

USPTO · Mag7 · 21 grants

SOURCE USPTO · AS OF 13 AUG 2026 07:08 ET

Symbol	Granted	Age	Patent	Title	Assignee
AAPL	2026-05-05	4mo ago	USD1125246S1	Display screen or portion thereof with icon	Apple Inc
GOOGL	2026-04-28	4mo ago	US12613915B2	Structured video documents	Google Llc
AMZN	2026-04-28	4mo ago	USD1123902S1	Electronic device	Amazon Technologies, Inc
AMZN	2026-04-28	4mo ago	USJPCAUSD1123902S1	Electronic device	Amazon Technologies, Inc.
GOOGL	2026-04-21	5mo ago	US12608369B2	Methods, systems, and computer readable media related to generating a combined search query	Google Llc
META	2026-04-21	5mo ago	US12608435B2	Accessing content via a logged-out experience	Meta Platforms, Inc
AMZN	2026-04-14	5mo ago	USD1122257S1	Electronic device	Amazon Technologies, Inc
NVDA	2026-04-14	5mo ago	US12602332B1	Distributed page table, memory map and routing table for multiple node systems	Nvidia Corporation
AMZN	2026-04-07	5mo ago	USD1121603S1	Wireless connectivity device	Amazon Technologies, Inc
META	2026-04-07	5mo ago	US12597444B2	Systems and methods for automated digital editing	Meta Platforms, Inc
AAPL	2026-04-07	5mo ago	USD1121665S1	Display screen or portion thereof with a group of graphical user interfaces	Apple Inc
AMZN	2026-04-07	5mo ago	USD1121705S1	Camera mount	Amazon Technologies, Inc
NVDA	2026-04-07	5mo ago	US12596148B1	Jitter injection generator for measuring phase noise and jitter transfer	Nvidia Corporation
TSLA	2026-03-24	6mo ago	US12583274B2	Compliant mechanism for suspension height sensor	Tesla, Inc
AAPL	2026-03-24	6mo ago	USD1119859S1	Headphones	Apple Inc
MSFT	2026-03-24	6mo ago	US12585346B2	Double-wheel assembly	Microsoft Technology Licensing, Llc
NVDA	2026-03-24	6mo ago	US12587227B2	Dynamic bit inversion for reduced overhead DC-balanced coding	Nvidia Corporation
AAPL	2026-03-17	6mo ago	USD1118748S1	Type font	Apple Inc
MSFT	2026-03-17	6mo ago	US12580979B2	Bidirectional mapping between applications and network content	Microsoft Technology Licensing, LLC
NVDA	2026-03-17	6mo ago	US12581100B1	Video encoding using reconstruction of spatially decimated frames	NVIDIA Corporation
TSLA	2026-03-17	6mo ago	US12576807B2	Vehicle hood hinge assembly	Tesla, Inc