BUD FOX RESEARCH · MAGNIFICENT SEVEN
Mag7 Desk Note #38
MONDAY, AUGUST 10, 2026
CLOSE PREVIEWDESK NOTE 038 · 10 AUG 2026 · 15:15 ET
Published 3:15 PM ET · Market data through 3:16 PM ET
Leadership
MSFT strongest trend · AMZN cleanest relative
Positioning
4/7 ABOVE EMA20 · 11% AVG CONV
Risk
3/7 BELOW EMA20 · AAPL WEAKEST RELATIVE
Watch
NVDA +4.9% vs EMA20 · equipment tape remains broken
Deltas
Since last note
- CHANGED prices, trends and RSI essentially flat (RSI floor 41.6→41.8).
- CHANGED COMPS confirm the prior peer read now that they're populated
- CHANGED Form 4 remains the substantive new desk information.
Desk Synthesis
Executive Takeaway
Nothing on this tape pays for Mag7 beta; the only usable information is relative. Leadership is two names deep, and both come with a caveat — MSFT frozen on RSI 79.1, AMZN trending but carrying 0% conviction and one-directional insider supply. NVDA leads its comps on aggregate but not on the session. GOOGL is sponsorship (repeat House buying) without trend. AAPL/META/TSLA are peer-relative laggards. Where upside is wanted, the IV-RV discount sits in MSFT and AMZN, not NVDA.
Positioning
- No directional edge in Mag7 beta: seven NEUTRALs, 31% conviction ceiling (NVDA), sub-1.0x RVOL everywhere but TSLA, VIX 15.15.
- Leadership is two names deep on COMPS — MSFT best structure (+9.5pp vs GOOGL/AMZN) and worst entry (RSI 79.1); AMZN cleanest peer-clearing trend (+7.4pp over flat WMT/COST, 89th percentile).
- AAPL (-10.3pp), META (-4.6pp vs a +7.2% SNAP), TSLA (-4.0pp vs GM/F) lag peers and sit below EMA20 — relative underweights, not merely soft prices.
- NVDA's peer lead (+4.1pp vs AMD/AVGO) is nominal: worst Mag7 session print (-2.08%) into $500B financing scrutiny, with the 21-day equipment tape broken.
Watch
Whether NVDA holds its +4.9% EMA20 premium while KLAC/-16.6%, LRCX/-12.4%, AMAT/-12.3% stay broken and the $500B financing structure draws scrutiny. Losing it leaves MSFT and AMZN as the only intact peer-clearing trends.
What Changed
Collectively: prices, trends and RSI essentially flat (RSI floor 41.6→41.8). COMPS confirm the prior peer read now that they're populated; Form 4 remains the substantive new desk information. OpenAI filed no deltas section — the insider and COMPS transitions are a gap in that read.
Universe
Magnificent Seven · 7 names
SOURCE Yahoo Finance · AS OF 10 AUG 2026 15:15 ET
Price = daily close · vs SPY = 24h relative · equity as of Aug 10, 3:15 PM ET · options as of Aug 10, 3:16 PM ET
| Symbol | Price | Trend | RSI | RVOL | RV20 | IV30 | IV−RV | Skew | vs SPY | Conv |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| AAPL | 307.33 | -3.0% | 43.5 | 0.61x | 38.5 | 37.9 | -0.6 | — | -1.93% | 7% |
| MSFT | 505.66 | +13.7% | 79.1 | 0.73x | 57.8 | 24.7 | -33.1 | — | +1.12% | 18% |
| GOOGL | 355.83 | +0.9% | 51.5 | 0.61x | 51.2 | 32.2 | -18.9 | — | +0.42% | 10% |
| AMZN | 276.97 | +7.5% | 65.4 | 0.68x | 61.5 | 27.0 | -34.5 | — | +0.89% | 0% |
| NVDA | 219.31 | +4.9% | 59.7 | 0.82x | 41.0 | 41.1 | +0.1 | — | -2.09% | 31% |
| META | 593.59 | -0.6% | 48.1 | 0.60x | 45.5 | 36.7 | -8.8 | — | +0.24% | 9% |
| TSLA | 329.45 | -2.8% | 41.8 | 1.01x | 64.0 | 42.7 | -21.3 | — | +0.25% | 0% |
Community
TradingView strategies · Mag7
Strategy bench not available this generation.
Macro
US macro + FX · 9 series
SOURCE FRED · AS OF 10 AUG 2026 12:01 ET
| Series | Label | Latest | Change | As of |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| DFF | Fed funds effective | 3.63% | +0.00 | 2026-08-06 LAGGED |
| DGS2 | 2Y Treasury | 4.25% | +0.07 | 2026-08-06 LAGGED |
| DGS10 | 10Y Treasury | 4.69% | +0.06 | 2026-08-06 LAGGED |
| T10Y2Y | 10Y–2Y spread | 0.46% | +0.02 | 2026-08-07 |
| T10YIE | 10Y breakeven inflation | 2.25% | -0.01 | 2026-08-07 |
| UNRATE | Unemployment rate | 4.10% | -0.10 | 2026-07-01 LAGGED |
| CPIAUCSL | CPI (all urban, SA) | 332.6 | +3.73% YoY | 2026-06-01 LAGGED |
| DTWEXBGS | Broad USD index | 119.7 | +0.03 | 2026-07-31 LAGGED |
| VIXCLS | VIX | 15.15 | -0.66 | 2026-08-06 LAGGED |
Metals
Precious & auto metals · 5
SOURCE Yahoo Finance · Futures · AS OF 10 AUG 2026 13:53 ET
Pt / Pd / Ag / Au + Cu
| ID | Metal | Price | 1d | 5d | 21d | Auto relevance |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| PL | Platinum | $1,751.6 | +0.09% | +8.26% | +8.25% | Catalytic converters (ICE); cost input for auto OEMs / suppliers |
| PA | Palladium | $1,381 | +0.50% | +10.40% | +9.06% | Gasoline catalytic converters; sharp moves hit auto input costs |
| SI | Silver | $65.33 | +3.16% | +13.30% | +9.24% | Electronics / EV contacts; industrial demand proxy |
| GC | Gold | $4,421.4 | +1.86% | +9.61% | +7.73% | Macro risk / real-rate proxy; can affect auto valuation multiples |
| HG | Copper | $6.6170 | +0.71% | +1.58% | +6.15% | EV wiring / motors; not precious but core auto cost input |
Power
Power & energy · 6
SOURCE Yahoo Finance · AS OF 10 AUG 2026 13:53 ET
Oil / gas / utilities / uranium for AI & industrial power costs
| ID | Name | Price | 1d | 5d | 21d | Relevance |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| CL | WTI crude | $81.76 | +4.58% | +1.77% | +14.49% | Oil complex; logistics & broader industrial cost pressure |
| BZ | Brent crude | $87.35 | +4.55% | +4.27% | +14.92% | Global oil benchmark; energy inflation proxy |
| NG | Natural gas | $2.784 | +4.58% | +0.11% | -5.31% | US power-gen feedstock; data-center / utility cost sensitivity |
| XLU | Utilities ETF | 43.27 | -0.78% | -2.46% | -4.71% | Grid / power-utility equity basket; AI power demand narrative |
| URA | Uranium ETF | 44.51 | -0.90% | +9.05% | +3.57% | Nuclear fuel chain; long-duration AI power buildout proxy |
| XLE | Energy Select ETF | 59.92 | +4.20% | +1.91% | +8.78% | Integrated energy equity beta |
Semis
Semiconductor supply chain · 6
SOURCE Yahoo Finance · AS OF 10 AUG 2026 13:53 ET
Foundry + equipment bottleneck tape
| ID | Name | Price | 1d | 5d | 21d | Relevance |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SMH | Semi ETF (SMH) | 573.80 | -1.53% | +5.20% | -6.09% | Broad semiconductor supply-chain beta |
| TSM | TSMC | $421.73 | +0.40% | +3.85% | -2.85% | Leading-edge foundry capacity for NVDA / Apple / AMD |
| ASML | ASML | $1,749 | +0.46% | +6.48% | -2.56% | EUV lithography bottleneck for advanced nodes |
| AMAT | Applied Materials | $528.42 | -1.99% | +1.97% | -12.30% | Wafer fab equipment — deposition / etch / CMP |
| LRCX | Lam Research | $306.76 | -1.47% | +4.12% | -12.44% | Etch / deposition equipment for logic & memory |
| KLAC | KLA | $193.21 | -2.47% | +5.72% | -16.55% | Process control / inspection — yield bottleneck |
Gases
Specialty gases · 3
SOURCE Yahoo Finance · AS OF 10 AUG 2026 13:53 ET
Industrial-gas proxies for fab specialty gases
| ID | Name | Price | 1d | 5d | 21d | Relevance |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| LIN | Linde | $488.80 | -0.24% | +1.74% | -7.74% | Largest industrial gas franchise; fab specialty-gas exposure |
| APD | Air Products | $305.73 | +0.76% | +4.37% | +2.07% | Hydrogen / electronic gases for semiconductors & refining |
| AIQUY | Air Liquide ADR | $39.49 | -0.78% | +0.84% | -0.70% | Electronics / specialty gases for chip manufacturing |
News
Mag7 headlines · 7
SOURCE News wire · AS OF 10 AUG 2026 13:53 ET
| Symbol | Name | Headlines |
|---|---|---|
| AAPL | Apple | |
| MSFT | Microsoft | |
| GOOGL | Alphabet | |
| AMZN | Amazon | |
| NVDA | NVIDIA | |
| META | Meta | |
| TSLA | Tesla |
News
Front-page semantics
No front-page news extraction in this generation.
Influencers
Donald J. Trump · Truth Social · 7
SOURCE Trump's Truth · AS OF 10 AUG 2026 13:53 ET
| Symbol | Name | Date | Latest Truth |
|---|---|---|---|
| AAPL | Apple | July 10, 2026, 8:19 PM | |
| MSFT | Microsoft | August 10, 2024, 11:01 PM | |
| GOOGL | Alphabet | August 17, 2024, 8:15 AM | |
| AMZN | Amazon | December 30, 2025, 4:18 PM | |
| NVDA | NVIDIA | July 27, 2026, 7:20 PM | |
| META | Meta | February 9, 2023, 1:46 PM | |
| TSLA | Tesla | March 11, 2025, 4:12 PM |
Options
Mag7 options · 7
SOURCE Options · Massive · AS OF 10 AUG 2026 15:16 ET
Front expiry ATM IV · put/call
| Symbol | Spot | Expiry | ATM IV | P/C vol | P/C OI | Skew |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| AAPL | 307.33 | 2026-09-11 | 36.8% | 2.25 | — | — |
| MSFT | 505.66 | 2026-09-11 | 24.5% | 0.66 | — | — |
| GOOGL | 355.83 | 2026-09-11 | 29.9% | 0.00 | — | — |
| AMZN | 276.97 | 2026-09-11 | 26.4% | 0.20 | — | — |
| NVDA | 223.96 | 2026-09-04 | 41.1% | 0.12 | — | — |
| META | 592.10 | 2026-09-04 | 36.7% | 1.07 | — | — |
| TSLA | 328.58 | 2026-09-04 | 42.7% | 0.13 | — | — |
Alt data
Congress trades · Mag7 · 10
SOURCE Capitol Trades · AS OF 10 AUG 2026 13:53 ET
STOCK Act disclosures
| Symbol | Side | Range | Member | Party / chamber | Date |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| GOOGL | buy | 1K–15K | David Taylor | Republican · House | 2026-07-16 |
| MSFT | buy | 1K–15K | David Taylor | Republican · House | 2026-07-23 |
| AAPL | sell | 1K–15K | David Taylor | Republican · House | 2026-07-23 |
| MSFT | buy | 1K–15K | David Taylor | Republican · House | 2026-08-07 |
| GOOGL | buy | 1K–15K | David Taylor | Republican · House | 2026-08-07 |
| GOOGL | buy | 1K–15K | Michael Rulli | Republican · House | 2026-06-28 |
| GOOGL | buy | 1K–15K | Michael Rulli | Republican · House | 2026-06-24 |
| GOOGL | sell | 1K–15K | Michael Rulli | Republican · House | 2025-07-02 |
| AMZN | sell | 1K–15K | Michael Rulli | Republican · House | 2025-07-02 |
| AMZN | sell | 1K–15K | Michael Rulli | Republican · House | 2026-06-24 |
Alt data
Insider trades · Mag7 · 12
SOURCE SEC EDGAR · AS OF 08 AUG 2026 16:45 ET
Open-market purchases / sales
| Symbol | Side | Shares | Price | Filer | Title | Date |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| MSFT | Sale | 10,000 | 487.89 | Althoff Judson | CEO Microsoft Commercial | 2026-08-05 |
| META | Sale | 250 | 588.16 | Andreessen Marc L | Director | 2026-08-04 |
| META | Sale | 87 | 589.24 | Andreessen Marc L | Director | 2026-08-04 |
| META | Sale | 44 | 590.39 | Andreessen Marc L | Director | 2026-08-04 |
| META | Sale | 45 | 591.69 | Andreessen Marc L | Director | 2026-08-04 |
| MSFT | Sale | 4,810 | 496.48 | Numoto Takeshi | EVP, Chief Marketing Officer | 2026-08-04 |
| AMZN | Sale | 1,000 | 278.39 | Herrington Douglas J | CEO Worldwide Amazon Stores | 2026-08-03 |
| AMZN | Sale | 1,209,649 | 286.41 | BEZOS JEFFREY P | Executive Chair | 2026-08-03 |
| META | Sale | 500 | 561.56 | KIMMITT ROBERT M | — | 2026-08-03 |
| GOOGL | Sale | 82 | 333.39 | ARNOLD FRANCES | Director | 2026-07-30 |
| AAPL | Sale | 116 | 295.14 | Borders Ben | Principal Accounting Officer | 2026-06-16 |
| TSLA | Sale | 2,606 | 402.20 | Taneja Vaibhav | Chief Financial Officer | 2026-06-08 |
Alt data
Short interest · Mag7 · 7
SOURCE Short interest · AS OF 08 AUG 2026 16:48 ET
Days to cover = SI ÷ ADV
| Symbol | Short interest | ADV | Days to cover | Δ SI | Settlement |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| AAPL | 146.55M | 47.95M | 3.06 | +4.3% | 2026-07-15 |
| MSFT | 92.37M | 32.42M | 2.85 | +3.7% | 2026-07-15 |
| GOOGL | 78.67M | 22.91M | 3.43 | -8.4% | 2026-07-15 |
| AMZN | 106.57M | 38.65M | 2.76 | +6.2% | 2026-07-15 |
| NVDA | 324.05M | 131.17M | 2.47 | +4.5% | 2026-07-15 |
| META | 37.85M | 23.55M | 1.61 | +9.7% | 2026-07-15 |
| TSLA | 70.65M | 39.66M | 1.78 | -10.7% | 2026-07-15 |
Calendar
Earnings · Mag7
No Mag7 earnings in this generation.
Comps
Competitive peers · Mag7 · 7
SOURCE Competitive peers · AS OF 10 AUG 2026 14:22 ET
| Primary | Price | Trend | Peer 1 | Price | Trend | RVOL | Peer 2 | Price | Trend | RVOL | Note |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| AAPL | 307.33 | -3.0% | MSFT | 505.66 | +13.7% | 0.73x | GOOGL | 355.83 | +0.9% | 0.61x | Platform + consumer software peers |
| MSFT | 505.66 | +13.7% | GOOGL | 355.83 | +0.9% | 0.61x | AMZN | 276.97 | +7.5% | 0.68x | Cloud / enterprise software peers |
| GOOGL | 355.83 | +0.9% | META | 593.59 | -0.6% | 0.60x | MSFT | 505.66 | +13.7% | 0.73x | Ad platforms + cloud peers |
| AMZN | 276.97 | +7.5% | WMT | 111.96 | -0.2% | 0.87x | COST | 949.95 | +0.3% | 0.72x | Commerce / retail scale peers |
| NVDA | 219.31 | +4.9% | AMD | 475.26 | -4.3% | 0.89x | AVGO | 424.18 | +6.1% | 0.77x | AI / semiconductor peers |
| META | 593.59 | -0.6% | GOOGL | 355.83 | +0.9% | 0.61x | SNAP | 5.32 | +7.2% | 1.06x | Social / digital ads peers |
| TSLA | 329.45 | -2.8% | GM | 88.45 | +3.9% | 0.55x | F | 14.03 | -1.6% | 0.62x | Auto / EV peers |
Patents
USPTO · Mag7 · 21 grants
SOURCE USPTO · AS OF 10 AUG 2026 13:53 ET
| Symbol | Granted | Age | Patent | Title | Assignee |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| AAPL | 2026-05-05 | 4mo ago | USD1125246S1 | Display screen or portion thereof with icon | Apple Inc |
| GOOGL | 2026-04-28 | 4mo ago | US12613915B2 | Structured video documents | Google Llc |
| AMZN | 2026-04-28 | 4mo ago | USD1123902S1 | Electronic device | Amazon Technologies, Inc |
| GOOGL | 2026-04-21 | 5mo ago | US12608369B2 | Methods, systems, and computer readable media related to generating a combined search query | Google Llc |
| META | 2026-04-21 | 5mo ago | US12608435B2 | Accessing content via a logged-out experience | Meta Platforms, Inc |
| AMZN | 2026-04-14 | 5mo ago | USD1122257S1 | Electronic device | Amazon Technologies, Inc |
| AMZN | 2026-04-07 | 5mo ago | USD1121603S1 | Wireless connectivity device | Amazon Technologies, Inc |
| META | 2026-04-07 | 5mo ago | US12597444B2 | Systems and methods for automated digital editing | Meta Platforms, Inc |
| AAPL | 2026-04-07 | 5mo ago | USD1121665S1 | Display screen or portion thereof with a group of graphical user interfaces | Apple Inc |
| AMZN | 2026-04-07 | 5mo ago | USD1121705S1 | Camera mount | Amazon Technologies, Inc |
| TSLA | 2026-03-24 | 6mo ago | US12583274B2 | Compliant mechanism for suspension height sensor | Tesla, Inc |
| AAPL | 2026-03-24 | 6mo ago | USD1119859S1 | Headphones | Apple Inc |
| MSFT | 2026-03-24 | 6mo ago | US12585346B2 | Double-wheel assembly | Microsoft Technology Licensing, Llc |
| AAPL | 2026-03-17 | 6mo ago | USD1118748S1 | Type font | Apple Inc |
| MSFT | 2026-03-17 | 6mo ago | US12580979B2 | Bidirectional mapping between applications and network content | Microsoft Technology Licensing, Llc |
| NVDA | 2026-03-17 | 6mo ago | US12581100B1 | Video encoding using reconstruction of spatially decimated frames | NVIDIA Corporation |
| TSLA | 2026-03-17 | 6mo ago | US12576807B2 | Vehicle hood hinge assembly | Tesla, Inc |
| AAPL | 2026-03-17 | 6mo ago | USD1118681S1 | Electronic device with animated graphical user interface | Apple Inc |
| GOOGL | 2026-03-17 | 6mo ago | US12576523B2 | Controlling robots using multi-modal language models | Google Llc |
| AMZN | 2026-03-10 | 6mo ago | USD1117210S1 | Content streaming device | Amazon Technologies, Inc |
| AAPL | 2026-03-03 | 6mo ago | USD1115763S1 | Wearable device | Apple Inc |