BUD FOX RESEARCH · MAGNIFICENT SEVEN
Mag7 Desk Note #35
MONDAY, AUGUST 10, 2026
OPEN PREVIEWDESK NOTE 035 · 10 AUG 2026 · 09:28 ET
Published 9:28 AM ET · Market data through 9:28 AM ET
Leadership
MSFT strongest trend · TSLA cleanest relative
Positioning
4/7 ABOVE EMA20 · 11% AVG CONV
Risk
3/7 BELOW EMA20 · TSLA WEAKEST RELATIVE
Watch
NVDA +7.7% vs EMA20 · equipment tape remains broken
Deltas
Since last note
- CHANGED No material deltas — tape, COMPS, options, macro, insider, short interest and congressional prints are identical
- CHANGED all headlines [SEEN].
- CHANGED Two small ones: the Trump archive repopulated with older posts (AAPL $30B chip investment, Jul 10
Desk Synthesis
Executive Takeaway
Nothing here pays for beta. Hold the NVDA/AMZN core, freeze MSFT at RSI 78, own GOOGL as sponsorship rather than trend, keep the three laggards as stubs. Calibration caveat: NVDA's IV-RV is only -1.4 pts, so the cheap-vol route works in AMZN/MSFT, not the fulcrum.
Positioning
- No directional edge: seven NEUTRALs, 31% conviction ceiling (NVDA), sub-1.0x RVOL everywhere but TSLA, VIX 15.15. The 4/3 EMA20 split is sizing input, not signal.
- NVDA and AMZN are the only trends both intact and non-extended while clearing comps (NVDA +5.5pp on AMD/AVGO, AMD outright -3.1%; AMZN +7.5pp on flat WMT/COST).
- MSFT has the best structure (+10.1pp vs GOOGL/AMZN) and the worst entry (RSI 78.1) — hold, don't add.
- AAPL/META/TSLA stay stubs; all three lag peer sets, TSLA weakest at the 15th 52w percentile.
Watch
Whether NVDA holds its +7.7% EMA20 premium — the fulcrum for the AI complex while the 21-day equipment tape (KLAC -13.7%, LRCX -11.8%) stays broken despite SMH +7.8% on 5 days.
What Changed
No material deltas — tape, COMPS, options, macro, insider, short interest and congressional prints are identical; all headlines [SEEN]. Two small ones: the Trump archive repopulated with older posts (AAPL $30B chip investment, Jul 10; NVDA US manufacturing, Jul 27), and minor IV30 drift. Only Claude surfaced these; OpenAI and Gemini declared "no change" without noting the influencer block going from empty to populated.
Portfolio
All three run ~$800 NAV with roughly a third in cash. OpenAI and Gemini are identical books: NVDA $210 / AMZN $190 — about 74% of equity in two names — MSFT capped near $60, GOOGL $50, $10 stubs in AAPL/META/TSLA. Claude is marginally more invested ($250 cash) and slightly more concentrated in the same core (NVDA $215, AMZN $195). The live risk is concentration, not cash discipline.
Universe
Magnificent Seven · 7 names
SOURCE Yahoo Finance · AS OF 10 AUG 2026 09:28 ET
Price = daily close · vs SPY = 24h relative · equity as of Aug 10, 9:28 AM ET · options as of Aug 9, 4:00 PM ET
| Symbol | Price | Trend | RSI | RVOL | RV20 | IV30 | IV−RV | Skew | vs SPY | Conv |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| AAPL | 313.33 | -1.4% | 47.6 | 0.61x | 38.0 | 25.2 | -12.8 | — | -0.32% | 7% |
| MSFT | 499.99 | +14.0% | 78.1 | 0.73x | 57.8 | 28.1 | -29.7 | — | -0.59% | 18% |
| GOOGL | 354.30 | +0.5% | 50.7 | 0.61x | 51.4 | 31.4 | -20.0 | — | -1.58% | 10% |
| AMZN | 274.48 | +7.4% | 64.2 | 0.68x | 61.5 | 30.0 | -31.4 | — | +0.20% | 0% |
| NVDA | 223.96 | +7.7% | 64.4 | 0.82x | 42.5 | 41.1 | -1.4 | — | +1.66% | 31% |
| META | 592.10 | -0.9% | 47.7 | 0.60x | 45.7 | 36.7 | -9.0 | — | -0.24% | 9% |
| TSLA | 328.58 | -3.4% | 41.4 | 1.01x | 64.4 | 42.7 | -21.7 | — | +2.22% | 0% |
Community
TradingView strategies · Mag7
Strategy bench not available this generation.
Macro
US macro + FX · 9 series
SOURCE FRED · AS OF 10 AUG 2026 04:01 ET
| Series | Label | Latest | Change | As of |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| DFF | Fed funds effective | 3.63% | +0.00 | 2026-08-06 LAGGED |
| DGS2 | 2Y Treasury | 4.25% | +0.07 | 2026-08-06 LAGGED |
| DGS10 | 10Y Treasury | 4.69% | +0.06 | 2026-08-06 LAGGED |
| T10Y2Y | 10Y–2Y spread | 0.46% | +0.02 | 2026-08-07 |
| T10YIE | 10Y breakeven inflation | 2.25% | -0.01 | 2026-08-07 |
| UNRATE | Unemployment rate | 4.10% | -0.10 | 2026-07-01 LAGGED |
| CPIAUCSL | CPI (all urban, SA) | 332.6 | +3.73% YoY | 2026-06-01 LAGGED |
| DTWEXBGS | Broad USD index | 119.7 | +0.03 | 2026-07-31 LAGGED |
| VIXCLS | VIX | 15.15 | -0.66 | 2026-08-06 LAGGED |
Metals
Precious & auto metals · 5
SOURCE Yahoo Finance · Futures · AS OF 09 AUG 2026 15:59 ET
Pt / Pd / Ag / Au + Cu
| ID | Metal | Price | 1d | 5d | 21d | Auto relevance |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| PL | Platinum | $1,759.6 | +1.77% | +6.62% | +8.70% | Catalytic converters (ICE); cost input for auto OEMs / suppliers |
| PA | Palladium | $1,378.3 | +0.39% | +8.05% | +10.80% | Gasoline catalytic converters; sharp moves hit auto input costs |
| SI | Silver | $63.50 | +3.35% | +10.26% | +5.17% | Electronics / EV contacts; industrial demand proxy |
| GC | Gold | $4,399.7 | +3.72% | +8.66% | +6.51% | Macro risk / real-rate proxy; can affect auto valuation multiples |
| HG | Copper | $6.5910 | -1.44% | +2.41% | +6.05% | EV wiring / motors; not precious but core auto cost input |
Power
Power & energy · 6
SOURCE Yahoo Finance · AS OF 09 AUG 2026 15:59 ET
Oil / gas / utilities / uranium for AI & industrial power costs
| ID | Name | Price | 1d | 5d | 21d | Relevance |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| CL | WTI crude | $78.18 | +1.15% | -7.67% | +8.46% | Oil complex; logistics & broader industrial cost pressure |
| BZ | Brent crude | $83.55 | +1.29% | -7.29% | +9.50% | Global oil benchmark; energy inflation proxy |
| NG | Natural gas | $2.662 | +0.83% | -3.09% | -11.62% | US power-gen feedstock; data-center / utility cost sensitivity |
| XLU | Utilities ETF | 43.61 | +0.53% | -1.67% | -3.37% | Grid / power-utility equity basket; AI power demand narrative |
| URA | Uranium ETF | 44.91 | +3.96% | +14.95% | +6.04% | Nuclear fuel chain; long-duration AI power buildout proxy |
| XLE | Energy Select ETF | 57.50 | -1.13% | -3.44% | +4.89% | Integrated energy equity beta |
Semis
Semiconductor supply chain · 6
SOURCE Yahoo Finance · AS OF 09 AUG 2026 15:59 ET
Foundry + equipment bottleneck tape
| ID | Name | Price | 1d | 5d | 21d | Relevance |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SMH | Semi ETF (SMH) | 582.70 | +1.96% | +7.80% | -4.12% | Broad semiconductor supply-chain beta |
| TSM | TSMC | $420.04 | +0.44% | +3.91% | -3.87% | Leading-edge foundry capacity for NVDA / Apple / AMD |
| ASML | ASML | $1,741 | +2.15% | +6.87% | -3.38% | EUV lithography bottleneck for advanced nodes |
| AMAT | Applied Materials | $539.14 | +2.21% | +6.20% | -8.41% | Wafer fab equipment — deposition / etch / CMP |
| LRCX | Lam Research | $311.35 | +1.82% | +6.26% | -11.84% | Etch / deposition equipment for logic & memory |
| KLAC | KLA | $198.11 | +2.53% | +8.36% | -13.69% | Process control / inspection — yield bottleneck |
Gases
Specialty gases · 3
SOURCE Yahoo Finance · AS OF 09 AUG 2026 15:59 ET
Industrial-gas proxies for fab specialty gases
| ID | Name | Price | 1d | 5d | 21d | Relevance |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| LIN | Linde | $489.98 | -0.03% | +2.42% | -6.77% | Largest industrial gas franchise; fab specialty-gas exposure |
| APD | Air Products | $303.44 | +1.17% | +2.90% | +2.57% | Hydrogen / electronic gases for semiconductors & refining |
| AIQUY | Air Liquide ADR | $39.80 | -0.10% | +1.12% | +0.51% | Electronics / specialty gases for chip manufacturing |
News
Mag7 headlines · 7
SOURCE News wire · AS OF 09 AUG 2026 15:34 ET
| Symbol | Name | Headlines |
|---|---|---|
| AAPL | Apple | |
| MSFT | Microsoft | |
| GOOGL | Alphabet | |
| AMZN | Amazon | |
| NVDA | NVIDIA | |
| META | Meta | |
| TSLA | Tesla |
News
Front-page semantics
No front-page news extraction in this generation.
Influencers
Donald J. Trump · Truth Social · 7
SOURCE Trump's Truth · AS OF 09 AUG 2026 15:59 ET
| Symbol | Name | Date | Latest Truth |
|---|---|---|---|
| AAPL | Apple | July 10, 2026, 8:19 PM | |
| MSFT | Microsoft | August 10, 2024, 11:01 PM | |
| GOOGL | Alphabet | August 17, 2024, 8:15 AM | |
| AMZN | Amazon | December 30, 2025, 4:18 PM | |
| NVDA | NVIDIA | July 27, 2026, 7:20 PM | |
| META | Meta | February 9, 2023, 1:46 PM | |
| TSLA | Tesla | March 11, 2025, 4:12 PM |
Options
Mag7 options · 7
SOURCE Options · Massive · AS OF 09 AUG 2026 16:00 ET
Front expiry ATM IV · put/call
| Symbol | Spot | Expiry | ATM IV | P/C vol | P/C OI | Skew |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| AAPL | 313.33 | 2026-09-11 | 25.2% | 1.26 | — | — |
| MSFT | 499.99 | 2026-09-11 | 28.1% | 1.03 | — | — |
| GOOGL | 354.30 | 2026-09-11 | 31.4% | 6.25 | — | — |
| AMZN | 274.48 | 2026-09-11 | 30.0% | 0.20 | — | — |
| NVDA | 223.96 | 2026-09-04 | 41.1% | 0.12 | — | — |
| META | 592.10 | 2026-09-04 | 36.7% | 1.07 | — | — |
| TSLA | 328.58 | 2026-09-04 | 42.7% | 0.13 | — | — |
Alt data
Congress trades · Mag7 · 5
SOURCE Capitol Trades · AS OF 09 AUG 2026 15:35 ET
STOCK Act disclosures
| Symbol | Side | Range | Member | Party / chamber | Date |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| GOOGL | buy | 1K–15K | David Taylor | Republican · House | 2026-07-16 |
| MSFT | buy | 1K–15K | David Taylor | Republican · House | 2026-07-23 |
| AAPL | sell | 1K–15K | David Taylor | Republican · House | 2026-07-23 |
| MSFT | buy | 1K–15K | David Taylor | Republican · House | 2026-08-07 |
| GOOGL | buy | 1K–15K | David Taylor | Republican · House | 2026-08-07 |
Alt data
Insider trades · Mag7 · 12
SOURCE SEC EDGAR · AS OF 08 AUG 2026 16:45 ET
Open-market purchases / sales
| Symbol | Side | Shares | Price | Filer | Title | Date |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| MSFT | Sale | 10,000 | 487.89 | Althoff Judson | CEO Microsoft Commercial | 2026-08-05 |
| META | Sale | 250 | 588.16 | Andreessen Marc L | Director | 2026-08-04 |
| META | Sale | 87 | 589.24 | Andreessen Marc L | Director | 2026-08-04 |
| META | Sale | 44 | 590.39 | Andreessen Marc L | Director | 2026-08-04 |
| META | Sale | 45 | 591.69 | Andreessen Marc L | Director | 2026-08-04 |
| MSFT | Sale | 4,810 | 496.48 | Numoto Takeshi | EVP, Chief Marketing Officer | 2026-08-04 |
| AMZN | Sale | 1,000 | 278.39 | Herrington Douglas J | CEO Worldwide Amazon Stores | 2026-08-03 |
| AMZN | Sale | 1,209,649 | 286.41 | BEZOS JEFFREY P | Executive Chair | 2026-08-03 |
| META | Sale | 500 | 561.56 | KIMMITT ROBERT M | — | 2026-08-03 |
| GOOGL | Sale | 82 | 333.39 | ARNOLD FRANCES | Director | 2026-07-30 |
| AAPL | Sale | 116 | 295.14 | Borders Ben | Principal Accounting Officer | 2026-06-16 |
| TSLA | Sale | 2,606 | 402.20 | Taneja Vaibhav | Chief Financial Officer | 2026-06-08 |
Alt data
Short interest · Mag7 · 7
SOURCE Short interest · AS OF 08 AUG 2026 16:48 ET
Days to cover = SI ÷ ADV
| Symbol | Short interest | ADV | Days to cover | Δ SI | Settlement |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| AAPL | 146.55M | 47.95M | 3.06 | +4.3% | 2026-07-15 |
| MSFT | 92.37M | 32.42M | 2.85 | +3.7% | 2026-07-15 |
| GOOGL | 78.67M | 22.91M | 3.43 | -8.4% | 2026-07-15 |
| AMZN | 106.57M | 38.65M | 2.76 | +6.2% | 2026-07-15 |
| NVDA | 324.05M | 131.17M | 2.47 | +4.5% | 2026-07-15 |
| META | 37.85M | 23.55M | 1.61 | +9.7% | 2026-07-15 |
| TSLA | 70.65M | 39.66M | 1.78 | -10.7% | 2026-07-15 |
Calendar
Earnings · Mag7
No Mag7 earnings in this generation.
Comps
Competitive peers · Mag7 · 7
SOURCE Competitive peers · AS OF 09 AUG 2026 15:59 ET
| Primary | Price | Trend | Peer 1 | Price | Trend | RVOL | Peer 2 | Price | Trend | RVOL | Note |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| AAPL | 313.33 | -1.4% | MSFT | 499.99 | +14.0% | 0.73x | GOOGL | 354.30 | +0.5% | 0.61x | Platform + consumer software peers |
| MSFT | 499.99 | +14.0% | GOOGL | 354.30 | +0.5% | 0.61x | AMZN | 274.48 | +7.4% | 0.68x | Cloud / enterprise software peers |
| GOOGL | 354.30 | +0.5% | META | 592.10 | -0.9% | 0.60x | MSFT | 499.99 | +14.0% | 0.73x | Ad platforms + cloud peers |
| AMZN | 274.48 | +7.4% | WMT | 111.85 | -0.3% | 0.87x | COST | 947.82 | +0.1% | 0.72x | Commerce / retail scale peers |
| NVDA | 223.96 | +7.7% | AMD | 483.36 | -3.1% | 0.89x | AVGO | 427.76 | +7.7% | 0.77x | AI / semiconductor peers |
| META | 592.10 | -0.9% | GOOGL | 354.30 | +0.5% | 0.61x | SNAP | 5.33 | +8.2% | 1.06x | Social / digital ads peers |
| TSLA | 328.58 | -3.4% | GM | 87.58 | +3.3% | 0.55x | F | 13.98 | -2.2% | 0.62x | Auto / EV peers |
Patents
USPTO · Mag7 · 21 grants
SOURCE USPTO · AS OF 09 AUG 2026 15:35 ET
| Symbol | Granted | Age | Patent | Title | Assignee |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| AAPL | 2026-05-05 | 4mo ago | USD1125246S1 | Display screen or portion thereof with icon | Apple Inc |
| GOOGL | 2026-04-28 | 4mo ago | US12613915B2 | Structured video documents | Google LLC |
| AMZN | 2026-04-28 | 4mo ago | USD1123902S1 | Electronic device | Amazon Technologies, Inc |
| GOOGL | 2026-04-21 | 5mo ago | US12608369B2 | Methods, systems, and computer readable media related to generating a combined search query based on search parameters of a current search query of a user | Google LLC |
| META | 2026-04-21 | 5mo ago | US12608435B2 | Accessing content via a logged-out experience | Meta Platforms, Inc |
| AMZN | 2026-04-14 | 5mo ago | USD1122257S1 | Electronic device | Amazon Technologies, Inc |
| AMZN | 2026-04-07 | 5mo ago | USD1121603S1 | Wireless connectivity device | Amazon Technologies, Inc |
| META | 2026-04-07 | 5mo ago | US12597444B2 | Systems and methods for automated digital editing | Meta Platforms, Inc |
| AAPL | 2026-04-07 | 5mo ago | USD1121665S1 | Display screen or portion thereof with a group of graphical user interfaces | Apple Inc |
| AMZN | 2026-04-07 | 5mo ago | USD1121705S1 | Camera mount | Amazon Technologies, Inc |
| TSLA | 2026-03-24 | 6mo ago | US12583274B2 | Compliant mechanism for suspension height sensor | Tesla, Inc |
| AAPL | 2026-03-24 | 6mo ago | USD1119859S1 | Headphones | Apple Inc |
| AAPL | 2026-03-17 | 6mo ago | USD1118748S1 | Type font | Apple Inc |
| MSFT | 2026-03-17 | 6mo ago | US12580979B2 | Bidirectional mapping between applications and network content | Microsoft Technology Licensing, Llc |
| NVDA | 2026-03-17 | 6mo ago | US12581100B1 | Video encoding using reconstruction of spatially decimated frames | Nvidia Corporation |
| TSLA | 2026-03-17 | 6mo ago | US12576807B2 | Vehicle hood hinge assembly | Tesla, Inc |
| AAPL | 2026-03-17 | 6mo ago | USD1118681S1 | Electronic device with animated graphical user interface | Apple Inc |
| GOOGL | 2026-03-17 | 6mo ago | US12576523B2 | Controlling robots using multi-modal language models | Google LLC |
| AMZN | 2026-03-10 | 6mo ago | USD1117210S1 | Content streaming device | Amazon Technologies, Inc |
| AAPL | 2026-03-03 | 6mo ago | USD1115763S1 | Wearable device | Apple Inc |
| GOOGL | 2026-03-03 | 6mo ago | US12567019B2 | Container device and delivery systems for using the same | Google LLC |