BUD FOX RESEARCH · MAGNIFICENT SEVEN
Mag7 Desk Note #233
TUESDAY, NOVEMBER 3, 2026
OPEN PREVIEWDESK NOTE 233 · 03 NOV 2026 · 06:04 ET
Published 6:04 AM ET · Market data through 6:04 AM ET
Leadership
TSLA strongest trend · AMZN cleanest relative
Positioning
1/7 ABOVE EMA20 · 11% AVG CONV
Risk
6/7 BELOW EMA20 · GOOGL WEAKEST RELATIVE
Watch
NVDA -6.7% vs EMA20
Deltas
Since last note
- NEW AAPL: What analysts are saying as Apple’s stock falls after earnings report
Desk Synthesis
Executive Takeaway
The Mag7 tape is in a defensive crouch, with six of the seven mega-caps now trading below their 20-day EMAs. A hostile macro backdrop featuring a 4.94% 10-year yield and broad semiconductor equipment weakness is capping tech multiples. TSLA stands alone as the sole momentum survivor above trend.
Positioning
- GOOGL capitulation: Alphabet is severely oversold (RSI 21.2, 6th percentile of its 52-week range) and lagging its ad/cloud peers by 7.2pp, presenting a potential mean-reversion setup despite post-earnings search concerns.
- AAPL relative strength: Despite post-earnings chip cost headlines and a slip below its EMA20, Apple is outperforming platform peers MSFT and GOOGL by a 7.2pp trend margin.
- NVDA defensive holding: Trading 6.7% below its EMA20 with elevated implied volatility (IV-RV +11.5 pts), Nvidia is absorbing headlines about trimming China exposure, though it still outperforms AMD and AVGO by 3.4pp.
Key Risks
- Semi-cap breakdown: The wafer fab equipment tape is cracking (LRCX -4.8%, AMAT -4.0%), signaling potential capex digestion or escalating export restriction fears.
- Macro headwinds: Energy inflation (Brent >$105) and an elevated VIX (19.42) are creating a toxic environment for duration-sensitive tech multiples.
Watch
NVDA · Q3 earnings countdown (14 days to print, EPS est $2.53) against a backdrop of mandated China exposure reductions and broad semiconductor equipment weakness.
What Changed
First issue in this series.
Universe
Magnificent Seven · 7 names
SOURCE Yahoo Finance · AS OF 03 NOV 2026 06:04 ET
Price = daily close · vs SPY = 24h relative · equity as of Nov 3, 6:04 AM ET · options as of Nov 3, 6:02 AM ET
| Symbol | Price | Trend | RSI | RVOL | RV20 | IV30 | IV−RV | Skew | vs SPY | Conv |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| AAPL | 338.32 | -1.0% | 47.9 | 1.58x | 16.2 | 25.5 | +9.3 | — | -1.35% | 7% |
| MSFT | 507.12 | -3.3% | 40.1 | 1.57x | 22.0 | 20.1 | -1.9 | — | -2.35% | 18% |
| GOOGL | 278.99 | -13.2% | 21.2 | 1.46x | 50.8 | 27.1 | -23.6 | — | +0.18% | 10% |
| AMZN | 245.63 | -2.3% | 43.9 | 1.40x | 37.2 | 27.3 | -9.9 | — | +2.68% | 0% |
| NVDA | 202.06 | -6.7% | 33.3 | 1.17x | 30.8 | 42.4 | +11.5 | — | -0.78% | 31% |
| META | 606.73 | -8.6% | 31.7 | 0.84x | 36.6 | 36.0 | -0.7 | — | -0.86% | 9% |
| TSLA | 403.82 | +4.9% | 62.5 | 1.19x | 36.0 | 50.2 | +14.2 | — | +1.48% | 0% |
Community
TradingView strategies · Mag7
Strategy bench not available this generation.
Macro
US macro + FX · 13 series
SOURCE FRED · AS OF 03 NOV 2026 06:00 ET
| Series | Label | Latest | Change | As of |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| DFF | Fed funds effective | 3.88% | +0.00 | 2026-10-30 LAGGED |
| DGS2 | 2Y Treasury | 4.56% | -0.05 | 2026-10-30 LAGGED |
| DGS10 | 10Y Treasury | 4.94% | -0.04 | 2026-10-30 LAGGED |
| T10Y2Y | 10Y–2Y spread | 0.32% | -0.06 | 2026-11-02 |
| T10YIE | 10Y breakeven inflation | 2.29% | -0.05 | 2026-11-02 |
| BAMLH0A0HYM2 | HY OAS | 3.44% | +0.18 | 2026-10-30 LAGGED |
| UNRATE | Unemployment rate | 4.20% | +0.10 | 2026-09-01 LAGGED |
| CPIAUCSL | CPI (all urban, SA) | 336.3 | +4.02% YoY | 2026-09-01 LAGGED |
| DTWEXBGS | Broad USD index | 121.7 | -0.07 | 2026-10-30 LAGGED |
| DEXUSEU | EURUSD | 1.1163 | -0.0002 | 2026-10-30 LAGGED |
| DEXJPUS | USDJPY | 157.47 | -0.36 | 2026-10-30 LAGGED |
| DEXCHUS | USDCNY (CNH proxy) | 6.6538 | -0.0066 | 2026-10-30 LAGGED |
| VIXCLS | VIX | 19.42 | +2.22 | 2026-10-30 LAGGED |
Metals
Precious & auto metals · 5
SOURCE Yahoo Finance · Futures · AS OF 03 NOV 2026 06:00 ET
Pt / Pd / Ag / Au + Cu
| ID | Metal | Price | 1d | 5d | 21d | Auto relevance |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| PL | Platinum | $1,425.7 | -2.28% | -7.12% | -16.47% | Catalytic converters (ICE); cost input for auto OEMs / suppliers |
| PA | Palladium | $937.00 | -2.91% | -8.47% | -19.72% | Gasoline catalytic converters; sharp moves hit auto input costs |
| SI | Silver | $48.97 | -3.44% | -9.80% | -19.54% | Electronics / EV contacts; industrial demand proxy |
| GC | Gold | $3,914.4 | -1.39% | -3.93% | -5.83% | Macro risk / real-rate proxy; can affect auto valuation multiples |
| HG | Copper | $6.3770 | -2.54% | -3.70% | -3.17% | EV wiring / motors; not precious but core auto cost input |
Power
Power & energy · 9
SOURCE Yahoo Finance · AS OF 03 NOV 2026 06:00 ET
Oil / gas / utilities / uranium for AI & industrial power costs
| ID | Name | Price | 1d | 5d | 21d | Relevance |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| CL | WTI crude | $97.74 | +1.33% | -2.16% | +9.29% | Oil complex; logistics & broader industrial cost pressure |
| BZ | Brent crude | $105.91 | +1.09% | -7.00% | +5.57% | Global oil benchmark; energy inflation proxy |
| NG | Natural gas | $2.897 | +1.44% | +7.42% | -5.51% | US power-gen feedstock; data-center / utility cost sensitivity |
| XLU | Utilities ETF | 43.67 | +0.55% | +2.63% | +9.64% | Grid / power-utility equity basket; AI power demand narrative |
| URA | Uranium ETF | 32.93 | -2.37% | -4.16% | -17.24% | Nuclear fuel chain; long-duration AI power buildout proxy |
| XLE | Energy Select ETF | 67.25 | -3.96% | -3.43% | +7.05% | Integrated energy equity beta |
| EQIX | Equinix | $993.69 | -1.97% | +2.69% | -3.12% | Datacenter REIT — colo capacity / interconnection demand proxy |
| DLR | Digital Realty | $175.95 | -2.63% | +0.81% | -1.46% | Hyperscale datacenter real-estate / power shell deployment |
| VRT | Vertiv | $224.24 | -3.55% | +12.24% | -11.08% | Datacenter power & thermal infrastructure orders |
Semis
Semiconductor supply chain · 6
SOURCE Yahoo Finance · AS OF 03 NOV 2026 06:00 ET
Foundry + equipment bottleneck tape
| ID | Name | Price | 1d | 5d | 21d | Relevance |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SMH | Semi ETF (SMH) | 508.31 | -2.71% | -6.15% | -19.39% | Broad semiconductor supply-chain beta |
| TSM | TSMC | $398.63 | -1.85% | -6.07% | -15.68% | Leading-edge foundry capacity for NVDA / Apple / AMD |
| ASML | ASML | $1,526.1 | -2.54% | -3.94% | -18.16% | EUV lithography bottleneck for advanced nodes |
| AMAT | Applied Materials | $374.53 | -3.99% | -3.37% | -30.65% | Wafer fab equipment — deposition / etch / CMP |
| LRCX | Lam Research | $227.56 | -4.83% | -4.19% | -34.51% | Etch / deposition equipment for logic & memory |
| KLAC | KLA | $153.11 | -3.04% | +2.61% | -25.99% | Process control / inspection — yield bottleneck |
Gases
Specialty gases · 3
SOURCE Yahoo Finance · AS OF 03 NOV 2026 06:00 ET
Industrial-gas proxies for fab specialty gases
| ID | Name | Price | 1d | 5d | 21d | Relevance |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| LIN | Linde | $519.72 | +1.07% | +2.40% | +8.39% | Largest industrial gas franchise; fab specialty-gas exposure |
| APD | Air Products | $316.03 | -0.13% | +3.37% | +13.86% | Hydrogen / electronic gases for semiconductors & refining |
| AIQUY | Air Liquide ADR | $40.72 | +0.87% | +4.14% | +6.82% | Electronics / specialty gases for chip manufacturing |
News
Mag7 headlines · 7
SOURCE News wire · AS OF 03 NOV 2026 06:00 ET
| Symbol | Name | Headlines |
|---|---|---|
| AAPL | Apple | |
| MSFT | Microsoft | |
| GOOGL | Alphabet | |
| AMZN | Amazon | |
| NVDA | NVIDIA | |
| META | Meta | |
| TSLA | Tesla |
News
Front-page semantics
No front-page news extraction in this generation.
Influencers
Donald J. Trump
No Mag7 Truth Social posts in this generation.
Options
Mag7 options · 7
SOURCE Options · Massive · AS OF 03 NOV 2026 06:02 ET
Front expiry ATM IV · put/call
| Symbol | Spot | Expiry | ATM IV | P/C vol | P/C OI | Skew |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| AAPL | 348.91 | 2026-12-04 | 25.5% | 0.18 | — | — |
| MSFT | 530.14 | 2026-12-04 | 20.1% | 1.03 | — | — |
| GOOGL | 283.82 | 2026-12-04 | 27.1% | 0.00 | — | — |
| AMZN | 243.79 | 2026-12-04 | 27.3% | 0.14 | — | — |
| NVDA | 204.64 | 2026-12-04 | 42.4% | 1.08 | — | — |
| META | 614.99 | 2026-12-04 | 36.0% | 0.45 | — | — |
| TSLA | 399.81 | 2026-12-04 | 50.2% | 0.00 | — | — |
Alt data
Congress trades · Mag7 · 20
SOURCE Capitol Trades · AS OF 03 NOV 2026 06:01 ET
STOCK Act disclosures
| Symbol | Side | Range | Member | Party / chamber | Date |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| MSFT | sell | 500K–1M | Scott Peters | Democrat · House | 2026-12-12 |
| AAPL | buy | 1K–15K | David Taylor | Republican · House | 2026-10-14 |
| GOOGL | buy | 100K–250K | Dave McCormick | Republican · Senate | 2026-10-06 |
| GOOGL | buy | 250K–500K | Dave McCormick | Republican · Senate | 2026-10-13 |
| AMZN | sell | 15K–50K | Pete Sessions | Republican · House | 2026-10-26 |
| NVDA | buy | 1K–15K | Cleo Fields | Democrat · House | 2026-09-30 |
| MSFT | sell | 1K–15K | Sheldon Whitehouse | Democrat · Senate | 2026-10-14 |
| AAPL | sell | 15K–50K | Sheldon Whitehouse | Democrat · Senate | 2026-10-14 |
| AMZN | buy | 1K–15K | Ro Khanna | Democrat · House | 2026-09-03 |
| MSFT | buy | 1K–15K | Ro Khanna | Democrat · House | 2026-09-03 |
| GOOGL | sell | 100K–250K | Pete Sessions | Republican · House | 2026-10-01 |
| AMZN | sell | 100K–250K | Pete Sessions | Republican · House | 2026-10-01 |
| AAPL | sell | 250K–500K | Pete Sessions | Republican · House | 2026-10-01 |
| MSFT | sell | 1K–15K | Michael Rulli | Republican · House | 2026-09-27 |
| MSFT | buy | 15K–50K | Diana Harshbarger | Republican · House | 2026-09-30 |
| AAPL | buy | 100K–250K | Dave McCormick | Republican · Senate | 2026-10-05 |
| MSFT | buy | 250K–500K | Dave McCormick | Republican · Senate | 2026-10-06 |
| GOOGL | sell | 250K–500K | Dave McCormick | Republican · Senate | 2026-10-07 |
| AMZN | buy | 500K–1M | Dave McCormick | Republican · Senate | 2026-10-06 |
| NVDA | sell | 100K–250K | Dave McCormick | Republican · Senate | 2026-10-07 |
Alt data
Insider trades · Mag7 · 14
SOURCE SEC EDGAR · AS OF 03 NOV 2026 06:01 ET
Open-market purchases / sales
| Symbol | Side | Shares | Price | Filer | Title | Date |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| GOOGL | Sale | 82 | 284.00 | ARNOLD FRANCES | Director | 2026-10-29 |
| AAPL | Sale | 2,399 | 343.36 | Newstead Jennifer | SVP, GC and Government Affairs | 2026-10-27 |
| META | Sale | 390 | 640.00 | Alford Peggy | — | 2026-10-26 |
| META | Sale | 946 | 640.00 | Olivan Javier | Chief Operating Officer | 2026-10-26 |
| META | Sale | 82 | 640.00 | Olivan Javier | Chief Operating Officer | 2026-10-26 |
| META | Sale | 57 | 640.00 | Olivan Javier | Chief Operating Officer | 2026-10-26 |
| META | Sale | 82 | 640.00 | Olivan Javier | Chief Operating Officer | 2026-10-26 |
| META | Sale | 408 | 640.00 | Olivan Javier | Chief Operating Officer | 2026-10-26 |
| AAPL | Sale | 2,399 | 339.62 | Newstead Jennifer | SVP, GC and Government Affairs | 2026-10-20 |
| MSFT | Sale | 3,387 | 544.80 | Hood Amy | EVP, Chief Financial Officer | 2026-10-13 |
| MSFT | Sale | 2,927 | 545.77 | Hood Amy | EVP, Chief Financial Officer | 2026-10-13 |
| MSFT | Sale | 991 | 546.51 | Hood Amy | EVP, Chief Financial Officer | 2026-10-13 |
| AMZN | Sale | 1,000 | 251.50 | Herrington Douglas J | CEO Worldwide Amazon Stores | 2026-10-01 |
| TSLA | Sale | 2,606 | 360.13 | Taneja Vaibhav | Chief Financial Officer | 2026-09-08 |
Alt data
Short interest · Mag7 · 7
SOURCE Short interest · AS OF 03 NOV 2026 06:02 ET
Days to cover = SI ÷ ADV
| Symbol | Short interest | ADV | Days to cover | Δ SI | Settlement |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| AAPL | 131.59M | 35.50M | 3.71 | +9.0% | 2026-10-15 |
| MSFT | 65.67M | 20.64M | 3.18 | +7.4% | 2026-10-15 |
| GOOGL | 78.44M | 22.96M | 3.42 | -2.4% | 2026-10-15 |
| AMZN | 93.66M | 33.29M | 2.81 | +8.1% | 2026-10-15 |
| NVDA | 301.62M | 103.63M | 2.91 | -3.1% | 2026-10-15 |
| META | 28.42M | 15.79M | 1.80 | -15.4% | 2026-10-15 |
| TSLA | 69.35M | 31.29M | 2.22 | -2.2% | 2026-10-15 |
Calendar
Earnings · Mag7 · 1
SOURCE Finnhub · AS OF 03 NOV 2026 06:01 ET
Window 2026-10-20 → 2027-01-02 · EPS actual / estimate
| Symbol | Date | Timing | Session | Period | EPS A/E |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| NVDA | 2026-11-17 | In 14d | AMC | Q3 2027 | — / 2.53 |
| AAPL | No print in window | ||||
| AMZN | No print in window | ||||
| GOOGL | No print in window | ||||
| META | No print in window | ||||
| MSFT | No print in window | ||||
| TSLA | No print in window | ||||
Comps
Competitive peers · Mag7 · 7
SOURCE Competitive peers · AS OF 03 NOV 2026 06:02 ET
| Primary | Price | Trend | Peer 1 | Price | Trend | RVOL | Peer 2 | Price | Trend | RVOL | Note |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| AAPL | 338.32 | -1.0% | MSFT | 507.12 | -3.3% | 1.57x | GOOGL | 278.99 | -13.2% | 1.46x | Platform + consumer software peers |
| MSFT | 507.12 | -3.3% | GOOGL | 278.99 | -13.2% | 1.46x | AMZN | 245.63 | -2.3% | 1.40x | Cloud / enterprise software peers |
| GOOGL | 278.99 | -13.2% | META | 606.73 | -8.6% | 0.84x | MSFT | 507.12 | -3.3% | 1.57x | Ad platforms + cloud peers |
| AMZN | 245.63 | -2.3% | WMT | 127.69 | +8.4% | 1.39x | COST | 1,040.55 | +5.6% | 1.45x | Commerce / retail scale peers |
| NVDA | 202.06 | -6.7% | AMD | 466.84 | -14.9% | 1.56x | AVGO | 322.23 | -5.3% | 0.91x | AI / semiconductor peers |
| META | 606.73 | -8.6% | GOOGL | 278.99 | -13.2% | 1.46x | SNAP | 5.45 | -8.1% | 0.97x | Social / digital ads peers |
| TSLA | 403.82 | +4.9% | GM | 89.94 | +9.2% | 1.02x | F | 12.60 | +3.2% | 1.30x | Auto / EV peers |
Patents
USPTO · Mag7 · 21 grants
SOURCE USPTO · AS OF 03 NOV 2026 06:01 ET
| Symbol | Granted | Age | Patent | Title | Assignee |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| NVDA | 2026-08-18 | 2mo ago | US12709014B2 | Spatial mapping and planning with language models using knowledge graphs | NVIDIA Corporation |
| NVDA | 2026-08-18 | 2mo ago | US12710961B2 | Application programming interface to wait on matrix multiply-accumulate | NVIDIA Corporation |
| META | 2026-08-18 | 2mo ago | USD1142324S1 | Wearable device | Meta Platforms, Inc |
| AAPL | 2026-08-18 | 2mo ago | USD1142471S1 | Display screen or portion thereof with animated graphical user interface | Apple Inc |
| AAPL | 2026-08-18 | 2mo ago | USD1142463S1 | Display screen or portion thereof with graphical user interface | Apple Inc |
| AAPL | 2026-08-18 | 2mo ago | USD1142481S1 | Display screen or portion thereof with graphical user interface | Apple Inc |
| AAPL | 2026-08-18 | 2mo ago | USD1142462S1 | Display screen or portion thereof with graphical user interface | Apple Inc |
| AMZN | 2026-08-18 | 2mo ago | USD1142279S1 | Display device | Amazon Technologies, Inc |
| AAPL | 2026-08-11 | 2mo ago | USD1140954S1 | Display screen or portion thereof with graphical user interface | Apple Inc |
| NVDA | 2026-08-11 | 2mo ago | US12705061B2 | Application programming interface to indicate accelerator error handlers | NVIDIA Corporation |
| AAPL | 2026-08-04 | 3mo ago | USD1139462S1 | Display screen or portion thereof with graphical user interface | Apple Inc |
| AAPL | 2026-08-04 | 3mo ago | USD1139423S1 | Display screen or portion thereof with graphical user interface | Apple Inc |
| AMZN | 2026-08-04 | 3mo ago | USD1139252S1 | Wireless connectivity device | Amazon Technologies, Inc |
| AMZN | 2026-08-04 | 3mo ago | USD1139331S1 | Content streaming device | Amazon Technologies, Inc |
| AMZN | 2026-08-04 | 3mo ago | USD1139463S1 | Electronic device | Amazon Technologies, Inc |
| NVDA | 2026-08-04 | 3mo ago | USD1139319S1 | Graphics card | NVIDIA Corporation |
| MSFT | 2026-08-04 | 3mo ago | US12701249B2 | Rules for intra-picture prediction modes when wavefront parallel processing is … | Microsoft Technology Licensing, LLC |
| AMZN | 2026-08-04 | 3mo ago | USJPCAUSD1139463S1 | Electronic device | Amazon Technologies, Inc. |
| MSFT | 2026-07-28 | 3mo ago | US12694027B2 | Generative graph-enhanced information retrieval | Microsoft Technology Licensing, LLC |
| GOOGL | 2026-07-28 | 3mo ago | USD1137184S1 | Speaker device with lights | Google LLC |
| NVDA | 2026-07-28 | 3mo ago | US12694551B2 | Foundation model for zero-shot stereo matching | NVIDIA Corporation |
Forward look
Stock Prediction for Tomorrow
Summary
The session setup is cautious, with a defensive regime indicated by six of the seven Mag7 names trading below their 20-day EMAs. Broad semiconductor equipment weakness and elevated VIX levels create headwinds for tech multiples, while rising energy costs add a layer of inflation concern.
Mag7 Calls
- AAPL · Flat · medium — Post-earnings chip cost headlines are a headwind, but it remains above its 52w %ile and is outperforming peers MSFT/GOOGL on trend.
- MSFT · Down · medium — Trading below EMA20 with elevated short interest and negative news flow, despite outperforming GOOGL/AMZN on trend.
- GOOGL · Up · high — Severely oversold (RSI 21.2) and lagging peers, presenting a strong mean-reversion setup despite post-earnings search concerns.
- AMZN · Flat · low — CEO outlook is positive, but it lags retail peers WMT/COST and shows no strong tape signals for directional conviction.
- META · Down · medium — Below EMA20 with negative news flow regarding business terms and account suspensions, despite outperforming GOOGL/SNAP on trend.
- NVDA · Down · high — Mandated China exposure reductions and significant weakness in semiconductor equipment tape (AMAT, LRCX) override its relative outperformance vs AMD/AVGO.
- TSLA · Up · medium — The sole name above its EMA20 with positive price action, supported by robotaxi news and a commitment to video on earnings calls, despite insider selling.
Catalysts to Watch
- Semiconductor Equipment Tape: Continued weakness in AMAT, LRCX, KLAC could signal broader capex digestion or escalating geopolitical risks impacting chip supply chains.
- Energy Prices: Brent crude trading above $105 suggests persistent energy inflation, which could pressure consumer spending and corporate margins.
- NVDA Earnings: Upcoming Q3 earnings print (14 days out) will be critical for sentiment, given current news on China exposure cuts.
Risks
- Macro Shock: A sudden spike in yields or inflation data could rapidly reprice duration-sensitive tech assets.
- Broad Market Selloff: Weakness in the semiconductor supply chain could spill over into broader market sentiment, dragging down even strong individual names.
Hypothetical next-session read from tape + desk synthesis. Not investment advice.