BUD FOX RESEARCH · MAGNIFICENT SEVEN
Mag7 Desk Note #218
WEDNESDAY, OCTOBER 28, 2026
OPEN PREVIEWDESK NOTE 218 · 28 OCT 2026 · 06:05 ET
Published 6:05 AM ET · Market data through 6:03 AM ET
Leadership
TSLA strongest trend · AMZN cleanest relative
Positioning
3/7 ABOVE EMA20 · 11% AVG CONV
Risk
4/7 BELOW EMA20 · META WEAKEST RELATIVE
Watch
NVDA -1.3% vs EMA20
Deltas
Since last note
- CHANGED TSLA widened its outperformance versus auto peers GM and F to a 10.0pp trend margin.
- CHANGED META's relative weakness deepened, now lagging its social peers by 7.3pp.
- CHANGED NVDA closed its relative performance gap, moving in-line with semiconductor peers AMD and AVGO.
Desk Synthesis
Executive Takeaway
The structural AI hardware buildout remains the dominant market force, with the CapexIndex tracking $965.6B in combined spend and TSMC revenue accelerating 53.3% YoY. Despite near-term weakness dragging several mega-caps below their moving averages, physical foundry output invalidates any hardware-slowdown narrative. We are siding with the structural infrastructure data over short-term tape noise.
Positioning
- TSLA: Leading the tape with an 8.3% premium to its EMA20 and an RSI of 65.5. It is currently crushing traditional auto peers GM and F by a massive 10.0pp trend margin.
- META & GOOGL: Both are severely lagging their moving averages and flashing oversold signals (META RSI 31.9; GOOGL RSI 34.0). META is lagging its social peers by 7.3pp as the market punishes ad platforms.
- NVDA: Maintain a structural hardware bias. While trading 1.3% below its EMA20, NVDA is backed by accelerating TSMC output and massive hyperscaler CapEx commitments.
Key Risks
- Yield Pressure: The 10Y Treasury remains elevated at 5.15%, creating a hostile valuation environment for long-duration tech multiples.
- Earnings Event Risk: News flow highlights intense scrutiny on AI cash flow drain ahead of imminent Microsoft, Alphabet, and Amazon prints.
Watch
NVDA · CapexIndex combined CapEx $965.6B · TSMC YoY accelerating +53.3% validates the physical AI buildout against any short-term equipment tape weakness.
What Changed
- TSLA widened its outperformance versus auto peers GM and F to a 10.0pp trend margin.
- META's relative weakness deepened, now lagging its social peers by 7.3pp.
- NVDA closed its relative performance gap, moving in-line with semiconductor peers AMD and AVGO.
Universe
Magnificent Seven · 7 names
SOURCE Yahoo Finance · AS OF 28 OCT 2026 06:05 ET
Price = daily close · vs SPY = 24h relative · equity as of Oct 28, 6:05 AM ET · options as of Oct 29, 6:03 AM ET
| Symbol | Price | Trend | RSI | RVOL | RV20 | IV30 | IV−RV | Skew | vs SPY | Conv |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| AAPL | 347.10 | +1.8% | 61.1 | 1.02x | 13.3 | 31.4 | +18.0 | — | +0.37% | 7% |
| MSFT | 531.33 | +1.0% | 56.3 | 0.97x | 19.6 | 30.9 | +11.3 | — | -0.80% | 18% |
| GOOGL | 320.58 | -4.8% | 34.0 | 1.19x | 21.9 | 48.8 | +26.9 | — | +0.63% | 10% |
| AMZN | 253.10 | -0.5% | 48.6 | 0.96x | 32.8 | 52.8 | +20.0 | — | +1.05% | 0% |
| NVDA | 217.94 | -1.3% | 46.3 | 0.82x | 30.5 | 40.9 | +10.4 | — | +0.34% | 31% |
| META | 620.19 | -9.8% | 31.9 | 2.64x | 37.1 | 52.7 | +15.6 | — | -2.21% | 9% |
| TSLA | 407.46 | +8.3% | 65.5 | 1.22x | 38.7 | 57.0 | +18.3 | — | +3.48% | 0% |
Community
TradingView strategies · Mag7
Strategy bench not available this generation.
Macro
US macro + FX · 13 series
SOURCE FRED · AS OF 29 OCT 2026 06:00 ET
| Series | Label | Latest | Change | As of |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| DFF | Fed funds effective | 3.88% | +0.00 | 2026-10-27 LAGGED |
| DGS2 | 2Y Treasury | 4.70% | +0.02 | 2026-10-27 LAGGED |
| DGS10 | 10Y Treasury | 4.99% | -0.01 | 2026-10-27 LAGGED |
| T10Y2Y | 10Y–2Y spread | 0.38% | +0.09 | 2026-10-28 |
| T10YIE | 10Y breakeven inflation | 2.38% | +0.03 | 2026-10-28 |
| BAMLH0A0HYM2 | HY OAS | 3.18% | -0.12 | 2026-10-27 LAGGED |
| UNRATE | Unemployment rate | 4.20% | +0.10 | 2026-09-01 LAGGED |
| CPIAUCSL | CPI (all urban, SA) | 336.3 | +4.02% YoY | 2026-09-01 LAGGED |
| DTWEXBGS | Broad USD index | 121.3 | -0.03 | 2026-10-23 LAGGED |
| DEXUSEU | EURUSD | 1.1199 | -0.0013 | 2026-10-23 LAGGED |
| DEXJPUS | USDJPY | 156.87 | -0.24 | 2026-10-23 LAGGED |
| DEXCHUS | USDCNY (CNH proxy) | 6.6702 | -0.0043 | 2026-10-23 LAGGED |
| VIXCLS | VIX | 17.52 | -0.87 | 2026-10-27 LAGGED |
Metals
Precious & auto metals · 5
SOURCE Yahoo Finance · Futures · AS OF 29 OCT 2026 06:01 ET
Pt / Pd / Ag / Au + Cu
| ID | Metal | Price | 1d | 5d | 21d | Auto relevance |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| PL | Platinum | $1,497.8 | -3.24% | -4.45% | -12.01% | Catalytic converters (ICE); cost input for auto OEMs / suppliers |
| PA | Palladium | $993.50 | -1.58% | -5.52% | -17.30% | Gasoline catalytic converters; sharp moves hit auto input costs |
| SI | Silver | $52.60 | -1.60% | -3.95% | -12.48% | Electronics / EV contacts; industrial demand proxy |
| GC | Gold | $4,038.1 | -0.33% | -0.55% | -3.55% | Macro risk / real-rate proxy; can affect auto valuation multiples |
| HG | Copper | $6.5895 | -0.78% | +3.57% | +0.47% | EV wiring / motors; not precious but core auto cost input |
Power
Power & energy · 9
SOURCE Yahoo Finance · AS OF 29 OCT 2026 06:01 ET
Oil / gas / utilities / uranium for AI & industrial power costs
| ID | Name | Price | 1d | 5d | 21d | Relevance |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| CL | WTI crude | $101.58 | -1.17% | +2.12% | +12.34% | Oil complex; logistics & broader industrial cost pressure |
| BZ | Brent crude | $110.53 | -4.15% | -2.33% | +6.76% | Global oil benchmark; energy inflation proxy |
| NG | Natural gas | $3.054 | +8.41% | +9.23% | +0.93% | US power-gen feedstock; data-center / utility cost sensitivity |
| XLU | Utilities ETF | 42.49 | -0.84% | +1.17% | +7.00% | Grid / power-utility equity basket; AI power demand narrative |
| URA | Uranium ETF | 36.55 | +1.92% | +2.81% | -8.72% | Nuclear fuel chain; long-duration AI power buildout proxy |
| XLE | Energy Select ETF | 68.45 | +0.35% | +0.43% | +11.23% | Integrated energy equity beta |
| EQIX | Equinix | $1,007.7 | +0.83% | +1.27% | -0.75% | Datacenter REIT — colo capacity / interconnection demand proxy |
| DLR | Digital Realty | $179.77 | +0.42% | +1.96% | +1.82% | Hyperscale datacenter real-estate / power shell deployment |
| VRT | Vertiv | $242.94 | +16.48% | +14.51% | -2.17% | Datacenter power & thermal infrastructure orders |
Semis
Semiconductor supply chain · 6
SOURCE Yahoo Finance · AS OF 29 OCT 2026 06:01 ET
Foundry + equipment bottleneck tape
| ID | Name | Price | 1d | 5d | 21d | Relevance |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SMH | Semi ETF (SMH) | 567.67 | +1.74% | +1.97% | -6.46% | Broad semiconductor supply-chain beta |
| TSM | TSMC | $439.51 | +0.60% | +1.76% | -3.81% | Leading-edge foundry capacity for NVDA / Apple / AMD |
| ASML | ASML | $1,662.8 | +1.67% | -0.69% | -9.23% | EUV lithography bottleneck for advanced nodes |
| AMAT | Applied Materials | $416.00 | +5.07% | +1.73% | -18.75% | Wafer fab equipment — deposition / etch / CMP |
| LRCX | Lam Research | $253.82 | +5.39% | -2.68% | -21.63% | Etch / deposition equipment for logic & memory |
| KLAC | KLA | $158.77 | +3.33% | -2.85% | -19.21% | Process control / inspection — yield bottleneck |
Gases
Specialty gases · 3
SOURCE Yahoo Finance · AS OF 29 OCT 2026 06:01 ET
Industrial-gas proxies for fab specialty gases
| ID | Name | Price | 1d | 5d | 21d | Relevance |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| LIN | Linde | $508.16 | -0.10% | +1.52% | +7.35% | Largest industrial gas franchise; fab specialty-gas exposure |
| APD | Air Products | $307.20 | +0.03% | +1.50% | +10.75% | Hydrogen / electronic gases for semiconductors & refining |
| AIQUY | Air Liquide ADR | $38.95 | +0.13% | +0.18% | +1.78% | Electronics / specialty gases for chip manufacturing |
News
Mag7 headlines · 7
SOURCE News wire · AS OF 29 OCT 2026 06:00 ET
| Symbol | Name | Headlines |
|---|---|---|
| AAPL | Apple | |
| MSFT | Microsoft | |
| GOOGL | Alphabet | |
| AMZN | Amazon | |
| NVDA | NVIDIA | |
| META | Meta | |
| TSLA | Tesla |
News
Front-page semantics
CNBC: HTTP 402; Financial Times: HTTP 402; TipRanks: HTTP 402
Influencers
Donald J. Trump
No Mag7 Truth posts found
Options
Mag7 options · 7
SOURCE Options · Massive · AS OF 29 OCT 2026 06:03 ET
Front expiry ATM IV · put/call
| Symbol | Spot | Expiry | ATM IV | P/C vol | P/C OI | Skew |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| AAPL | 347.10 | 2026-11-27 | 21.8% | 3.35 | — | — |
| MSFT | 531.33 | 2026-11-27 | 32.7% | 0.29 | — | — |
| GOOGL | 320.58 | 2026-11-27 | 46.3% | 8.46 | — | — |
| AMZN | 253.10 | 2026-11-27 | 47.5% | 0.00 | — | — |
| NVDA | 233.95 | 2026-11-06 | 40.9% | 1.86 | — | — |
| META | 728.08 | 2026-11-06 | 52.7% | 1.02 | — | — |
| TSLA | 370.59 | 2026-11-06 | 57.0% | 0.00 | — | — |
Alt data
Congress trades · Mag7 · 20
SOURCE Capitol Trades · AS OF 29 OCT 2026 06:01 ET
STOCK Act disclosures
| Symbol | Side | Range | Member | Party / chamber | Date |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| MSFT | sell | 500K–1M | Scott Peters | Democrat · House | 2026-12-12 |
| AMZN | sell | 15K–50K | Pete Sessions | Republican · House | 2026-10-26 |
| NVDA | buy | 1K–15K | Cleo Fields | Democrat · House | 2026-09-30 |
| AMZN | buy | 1K–15K | Ro Khanna | Democrat · House | 2026-09-03 |
| MSFT | buy | 1K–15K | Ro Khanna | Democrat · House | 2026-09-03 |
| GOOGL | sell | 100K–250K | Pete Sessions | Republican · House | 2026-10-01 |
| AMZN | sell | 100K–250K | Pete Sessions | Republican · House | 2026-10-01 |
| AAPL | sell | 250K–500K | Pete Sessions | Republican · House | 2026-10-01 |
| MSFT | sell | 1K–15K | Michael Rulli | Republican · House | 2026-09-27 |
| MSFT | buy | 15K–50K | Diana Harshbarger | Republican · House | 2026-09-30 |
| AAPL | buy | 1K–15K | Richard Blumenthal | Democrat · Senate | 2026-09-10 |
| MSFT | buy | 15K–50K | Richard Blumenthal | Democrat · Senate | 2026-09-10 |
| MSFT | buy | 15K–50K | Richard Blumenthal | Democrat · Senate | 2026-08-26 |
| AAPL | buy | 15K–50K | Richard Blumenthal | Democrat · Senate | 2026-08-26 |
| GOOGL | Buy | 15K–50K | Richard Blumenthal | Democrat · Senate | 2026-08-26 |
| AAPL | Sell | 25M–50M | James Justice II | Republican · Senate | 2026-08-13 |
| META | Buy | 1K–15K | Richard Blumenthal | Democrat · Senate | 2026-08-26 |
| MSFT | sell | 1K–15K | Michael Rulli | Republican · House | 2026-10-05 |
| AAPL | sell | 100K–250K | Pete Sessions | Republican · House | 2026-09-21 |
| GOOGL | buy | 1K–15K | Rick Allen | Republican · House | 2026-08-11 |
Alt data
Insider trades · Mag7 · 17
SOURCE SEC EDGAR · AS OF 29 OCT 2026 06:02 ET
Open-market purchases / sales
| Symbol | Side | Shares | Price | Filer | Title | Date |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| META | Sale | 390 | 640.00 | Alford Peggy | — | 2026-10-26 |
| META | Sale | 946 | 640.00 | Olivan Javier | Chief Operating Officer | 2026-10-26 |
| META | Sale | 82 | 640.00 | Olivan Javier | Chief Operating Officer | 2026-10-26 |
| META | Sale | 57 | 640.00 | Olivan Javier | Chief Operating Officer | 2026-10-26 |
| META | Sale | 82 | 640.00 | Olivan Javier | Chief Operating Officer | 2026-10-26 |
| META | Sale | 408 | 640.00 | Olivan Javier | Chief Operating Officer | 2026-10-26 |
| AAPL | Sale | 2,399 | 339.62 | Newstead Jennifer | SVP, GC and Government Affairs | 2026-10-20 |
| AAPL | Sale | 151 | 343.08 | Borders Ben | Principal Accounting Officer | 2026-10-16 |
| AAPL | Sale | 80 | 344.18 | Borders Ben | Principal Accounting Officer | 2026-10-16 |
| AAPL | Sale | 969 | 345.74 | Borders Ben | Principal Accounting Officer | 2026-10-16 |
| AAPL | Sale | 40 | 346.22 | Borders Ben | Principal Accounting Officer | 2026-10-16 |
| AAPL | Sale | 40 | 347.43 | Borders Ben | Principal Accounting Officer | 2026-10-16 |
| MSFT | Sale | 3,387 | 544.80 | Hood Amy | EVP, Chief Financial Officer | 2026-10-13 |
| MSFT | Sale | 2,927 | 545.77 | Hood Amy | EVP, Chief Financial Officer | 2026-10-13 |
| MSFT | Sale | 991 | 546.51 | Hood Amy | EVP, Chief Financial Officer | 2026-10-13 |
| AMZN | Sale | 1,000 | 251.50 | Herrington Douglas J | CEO Worldwide Amazon Stores | 2026-10-01 |
| TSLA | Sale | 2,606 | 360.13 | Taneja Vaibhav | Chief Financial Officer | 2026-09-08 |
Alt data
Short interest · Mag7 · 7
SOURCE Short interest · AS OF 29 OCT 2026 06:02 ET
Days to cover = SI ÷ ADV
| Symbol | Short interest | ADV | Days to cover | Δ SI | Settlement |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| AAPL | 131.59M | 35.50M | 3.71 | +9.0% | 2026-10-15 |
| MSFT | 65.67M | 20.64M | 3.18 | +7.4% | 2026-10-15 |
| GOOGL | 78.44M | 22.96M | 3.42 | -2.4% | 2026-10-15 |
| AMZN | 93.66M | 33.29M | 2.81 | +8.1% | 2026-10-15 |
| NVDA | 301.62M | 103.63M | 2.91 | -3.1% | 2026-10-15 |
| META | 28.42M | 15.79M | 1.80 | -15.4% | 2026-10-15 |
| TSLA | 69.35M | 31.29M | 2.22 | -2.2% | 2026-10-15 |
Calendar
Earnings · Mag7 · 1
SOURCE Finnhub · AS OF 29 OCT 2026 06:02 ET
Window 2026-10-15 → 2026-12-28 · EPS actual / estimate
| Symbol | Date | Timing | Session | Period | EPS A/E |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| NVDA | 2026-11-17 | In 19d | AMC | Q3 2027 | — / 2.53 |
| AAPL | No print in window | ||||
| AMZN | No print in window | ||||
| GOOGL | No print in window | ||||
| META | No print in window | ||||
| MSFT | No print in window | ||||
| TSLA | No print in window | ||||
Comps
Competitive peers · Mag7 · 7
SOURCE Competitive peers · AS OF 29 OCT 2026 06:02 ET
| Primary | Price | Trend | Peer 1 | Price | Trend | RVOL | Peer 2 | Price | Trend | RVOL | Note |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| AAPL | 347.10 | +1.8% | MSFT | 531.33 | +1.0% | 0.97x | GOOGL | 320.58 | -4.8% | 1.19x | Platform + consumer software peers |
| MSFT | 531.33 | +1.0% | GOOGL | 320.58 | -4.8% | 1.19x | AMZN | 253.10 | -0.5% | 0.96x | Cloud / enterprise software peers |
| GOOGL | 320.58 | -4.8% | META | 620.19 | -9.8% | 2.64x | MSFT | 531.33 | +1.0% | 0.97x | Ad platforms + cloud peers |
| AMZN | 253.10 | -0.5% | WMT | 118.77 | +2.8% | 0.70x | COST | 982.73 | +0.9% | 0.81x | Commerce / retail scale peers |
| NVDA | 217.94 | -1.3% | AMD | 578.44 | +2.9% | 0.97x | AVGO | 351.81 | +2.3% | 1.04x | AI / semiconductor peers |
| META | 620.19 | -9.8% | GOOGL | 320.58 | -4.8% | 1.19x | SNAP | 5.96 | -2.1% | 0.87x | Social / digital ads peers |
| TSLA | 407.46 | +8.3% | GM | 82.48 | +2.5% | 1.14x | F | 11.95 | -1.5% | 1.35x | Auto / EV peers |
Patents
USPTO · Mag7 · 21 grants
SOURCE USPTO · AS OF 29 OCT 2026 06:02 ET
| Symbol | Granted | Age | Patent | Title | Assignee |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| NVDA | 2026-08-18 | 2mo ago | US12709014B2 | Spatial mapping and planning with language models using knowledge graphs | NVIDIA Corporation |
| NVDA | 2026-08-18 | 2mo ago | US12710961B2 | Application programming interface to wait on matrix multiply-accumulate | NVIDIA Corporation |
| META | 2026-08-18 | 2mo ago | USD1142324S1 | Wearable device | Meta Platforms, Inc |
| AAPL | 2026-08-18 | 2mo ago | USD1142471S1 | Display screen or portion thereof with animated graphical user interface | Apple Inc |
| AAPL | 2026-08-18 | 2mo ago | USD1142463S1 | Display screen or portion thereof with graphical user interface | Apple Inc |
| AAPL | 2026-08-18 | 2mo ago | USD1142481S1 | Display screen or portion thereof with graphical user interface | Apple Inc |
| AAPL | 2026-08-18 | 2mo ago | USD1142462S1 | Display screen or portion thereof with graphical user interface | Apple Inc |
| AMZN | 2026-08-18 | 2mo ago | USD1142279S1 | Display device | Amazon Technologies, Inc |
| AAPL | 2026-08-11 | 2mo ago | USD1140954S1 | Display screen or portion thereof with graphical user interface | Apple Inc |
| NVDA | 2026-08-11 | 2mo ago | US12705061B2 | Application programming interface to indicate accelerator error handlers | NVIDIA Corporation |
| AAPL | 2026-08-04 | 2mo ago | USD1139462S1 | Display screen or portion thereof with graphical user interface | Apple Inc |
| AAPL | 2026-08-04 | 2mo ago | USD1139423S1 | Display screen or portion thereof with graphical user interface | Apple Inc |
| AMZN | 2026-08-04 | 2mo ago | USD1139252S1 | Wireless connectivity device | Amazon Technologies, Inc |
| AMZN | 2026-08-04 | 2mo ago | USD1139331S1 | Content streaming device | Amazon Technologies, Inc |
| AMZN | 2026-08-04 | 2mo ago | USD1139463S1 | Electronic device | Amazon Technologies, Inc |
| NVDA | 2026-08-04 | 2mo ago | USD1139319S1 | Graphics card | NVIDIA Corporation |
| MSFT | 2026-08-04 | 2mo ago | US12701249B2 | Rules for intra-picture prediction modes when wavefront parallel processing is ... | Microsoft Technology Licensing, LLC |
| AMZN | 2026-08-04 | 2mo ago | USJPCAUSD1139463S1 | Electronic device | Amazon Technologies, Inc. |
| MSFT | 2026-07-28 | 3mo ago | US12694027B2 | Generative graph-enhanced information retrieval | Microsoft Technology Licensing LLC |
| GOOGL | 2026-07-28 | 3mo ago | USD1137184S1 | Speaker device with lights | Google Llc |
| NVDA | 2026-07-28 | 3mo ago | US12694551B2 | Foundation model for zero-shot stereo matching | NVIDIA Corporation |
Forward look
Stock Prediction for Tomorrow
Summary
The session setup is dominated by the persistent AI infrastructure buildout, evidenced by massive CapEx commitments and accelerating foundry revenue, which overrides short-term tape weakness and elevated Treasury yields. While several mega-caps trade below their key moving averages, the underlying demand for AI hardware remains the dominant catalyst. Mixed overnight sentiment and macro headwinds create crosscurrents, but the structural data supports a cautious upward bias.
Mag7 Calls
- AAPL · Up · medium — Trading above EMA20 with a positive trend (1.8%), but recent insider selling by SVP and PAO warrants caution.
- MSFT · Flat · medium — Above EMA20 with a positive trend (1.0%), but earnings focus on AI cash flow and insider selling create mixed signals.
- GOOGL · Down · high — Below EMA20 with a weak trend (-4.8%) and oversold RSI (34.0), despite being the top CapEx spender, indicating near-term pressure.
- AMZN · Flat · low — Trading near EMA20 with a neutral RSI (48.6) and mixed news flow, suggesting a lack of strong directional conviction.
- META · Down · high — Below EMA20 with a severe trend lag (-9.8%) and oversold RSI (31.9), indicating continued selling pressure despite AI infrastructure spending.
- NVDA · Up · medium — Trading below EMA20 but supported by accelerating TSMC revenue and strong AI hardware demand signals, overriding short-term equipment tape weakness.
- TSLA · Up · high — Leading the tape with a strong trend (8.3% vs EMA20) and RSI (65.5), outperforming auto peers significantly.
Catalysts to Watch
- Treasury Yields: The 10Y Treasury at 5.15% continues to pressure growth stock valuations and may limit upside.
- Earnings Scrutiny: Upcoming earnings for MSFT and GOOGL will focus on AI cash flow and revenue growth, potentially driving volatility.
- CapexIndex Data: Continued strength in AI-attributed CapEx ($319.5B) validates the long-term hardware demand narrative.
Risks
- Options Market Pricing: High IV-RV spreads on names like GOOGL (+26.9 pts) and AMZN (+20.0 pts) suggest significant expected volatility that could materialize.
- Insider Selling: Consistent insider sales in AAPL and MSFT, though potentially for diversification, can weigh on sentiment.
Hypothetical next-session read from tape + desk synthesis. Not investment advice.