BUD FOX RESEARCH · MAGNIFICENT SEVEN
Mag7 Desk Note #213
MONDAY, OCTOBER 26, 2026
OPEN PREVIEWDESK NOTE 213 · 26 OCT 2026 · 06:05 ET
Published 6:05 AM ET · Market data through 6:04 AM ET
Leadership
AAPL strongest trend · MSFT cleanest relative
Positioning
2/7 ABOVE EMA20 · 11% AVG CONV
Risk
5/7 BELOW EMA20 · META WEAKEST RELATIVE
Watch
NVDA -4.8% vs EMA20
Deltas
Since last note
- NEW AAPL: Apple acknowledges iPhone Duo screen cracks; company says: “If users experience issues with their iPhone
Desk Synthesis
Executive Takeaway
Despite weak price action across most of the Magnificent Seven, structural AI capital expenditure remains massive and invalidates the short-term hardware slowdown narrative. With only Apple and Tesla holding above their 20-day moving averages, the broader tape looks heavy, but underlying fundamentals for compute infrastructure are fully intact. We are fading the bearish semiconductor options flow in favor of the $965 billion capex reality.
Positioning
- Stay structurally long NVDA despite its -4.8% lag to the EMA20; TSMC's 53.3% YoY revenue growth and $319.5 billion in AI-attributed capex trump the bearish daily tape.
- Lean into AAPL as a defensive haven; it is outperforming its platform peers by 5.3 points and sits comfortably in the 96th percentile of its 52-week range.
- Reduce exposure to META, which is lagging its digital ad peers by 7.6 points and showing the weakest trend (-8.4% vs EMA20) in the group.
Key Risks
- The 10-year Treasury yield climbing to 5.15% threatens to compress valuation multiples across the entire tech complex.
- Earnings event risk is elevated for MSFT, GOOGL, and AMZN, with implied volatility running 9 to 15 points above realized volatility ahead of their upcoming prints.
Watch
NVDA · CapexIndex combined CapEx $965.6B · TSMC YoY revenue still rising (+53.3%) against a weak semiconductor equipment tape.
What Changed
First issue in this series.
Universe
Magnificent Seven · 7 names
SOURCE Yahoo Finance · AS OF 26 OCT 2026 06:05 ET
Price = daily close · vs SPY = 24h relative · equity as of Oct 26, 6:05 AM ET · options as of Oct 27, 6:04 AM ET
| Symbol | Price | Trend | RSI | RVOL | RV20 | IV30 | IV−RV | Skew | vs SPY | Conv |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| AAPL | 347.73 | +2.3% | 63.9 | 1.04x | 16.5 | 26.2 | +9.7 | — | +0.38% | 7% |
| MSFT | 524.51 | -0.1% | 52.6 | 0.64x | 19.7 | 35.5 | +15.8 | — | +1.18% | 18% |
| GOOGL | 320.21 | -6.0% | 31.3 | 0.73x | 21.1 | 32.2 | +11.1 | — | -0.71% | 10% |
| AMZN | 248.00 | -2.8% | 43.2 | 0.70x | 32.7 | 42.1 | +9.4 | — | -0.43% | 0% |
| NVDA | 210.96 | -4.8% | 38.1 | 0.76x | 29.6 | 40.9 | +11.4 | — | -0.07% | 31% |
| META | 642.62 | -8.4% | 35.7 | 0.75x | 42.3 | 52.7 | +10.4 | — | -0.44% | 9% |
| TSLA | 372.22 | +0.4% | 51.5 | 0.94x | 36.3 | 57.0 | +20.7 | — | -0.11% | 0% |
Community
TradingView strategies · Mag7
Strategy bench not available this generation.
Macro
US macro + FX · 13 series
SOURCE FRED · AS OF 27 OCT 2026 06:00 ET
| Series | Label | Latest | Change | As of |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| DFF | Fed funds effective | 3.88% | +0.00 | 2026-10-19 LAGGED |
| DGS2 | 2Y Treasury | 4.77% | +0.03 | 2026-10-19 LAGGED |
| DGS10 | 10Y Treasury | 5.15% | +0.06 | 2026-10-19 LAGGED |
| T10Y2Y | 10Y–2Y spread | 0.33% | -0.05 | 2026-10-20 LAGGED |
| T10YIE | 10Y breakeven inflation | 2.35% | +0.00 | 2026-10-19 LAGGED |
| BAMLH0A0HYM2 | HY OAS | 3.29% | -0.02 | 2026-10-19 LAGGED |
| UNRATE | Unemployment rate | 4.20% | +0.10 | 2026-09-01 LAGGED |
| CPIAUCSL | CPI (all urban, SA) | 336.3 | +4.02% YoY | 2026-09-01 LAGGED |
| DTWEXBGS | Broad USD index | 121.4 | -0.16 | 2026-10-16 LAGGED |
| DEXUSEU | EURUSD | 1.1231 | +0.0027 | 2026-10-16 LAGGED |
| DEXJPUS | USDJPY | 158.00 | -0.18 | 2026-10-16 LAGGED |
| DEXCHUS | USDCNY (CNH proxy) | 6.6861 | -0.0048 | 2026-10-16 LAGGED |
| VIXCLS | VIX | 18.44 | -1.55 | 2026-10-19 LAGGED |
Metals
Precious & auto metals · 5
SOURCE Yahoo Finance · Futures · AS OF 27 OCT 2026 06:01 ET
Pt / Pd / Ag / Au + Cu
| ID | Metal | Price | 1d | 5d | 21d | Auto relevance |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| PL | Platinum | $1,497.7 | -2.54% | -9.04% | -12.99% | Catalytic converters (ICE); cost input for auto OEMs / suppliers |
| PA | Palladium | $1,019.5 | -2.71% | -7.28% | -15.73% | Gasoline catalytic converters; sharp moves hit auto input costs |
| SI | Silver | $53.28 | -1.53% | -7.67% | -12.97% | Electronics / EV contacts; industrial demand proxy |
| GC | Gold | $4,010.5 | -0.69% | -3.19% | -3.79% | Macro risk / real-rate proxy; can affect auto valuation multiples |
| HG | Copper | $6.6070 | +1.52% | +0.62% | +0.62% | EV wiring / motors; not precious but core auto cost input |
Power
Power & energy · 9
SOURCE Yahoo Finance · AS OF 27 OCT 2026 06:01 ET
Oil / gas / utilities / uranium for AI & industrial power costs
| ID | Name | Price | 1d | 5d | 21d | Relevance |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| CL | WTI crude | $101.88 | +0.12% | +0.09% | +10.02% | Oil complex; logistics & broader industrial cost pressure |
| BZ | Brent crude | $110.93 | -4.21% | +1.97% | +5.37% | Global oil benchmark; energy inflation proxy |
| NG | Natural gas | $3.037 | +16.72% | +2.50% | +1.23% | US power-gen feedstock; data-center / utility cost sensitivity |
| XLU | Utilities ETF | 42.55 | -0.02% | +2.88% | +7.69% | Grid / power-utility equity basket; AI power demand narrative |
| URA | Uranium ETF | 34.36 | +0.73% | -2.58% | -16.01% | Nuclear fuel chain; long-duration AI power buildout proxy |
| XLE | Energy Select ETF | 69.64 | +0.45% | +2.71% | +12.25% | Integrated energy equity beta |
| EQIX | Equinix | $967.65 | +1.32% | -0.83% | -4.01% | Datacenter REIT — colo capacity / interconnection demand proxy |
| DLR | Digital Realty | $174.53 | +1.25% | +0.88% | -2.28% | Hyperscale datacenter real-estate / power shell deployment |
| VRT | Vertiv | $199.78 | +2.81% | -3.06% | -21.12% | Datacenter power & thermal infrastructure orders |
Semis
Semiconductor supply chain · 6
SOURCE Yahoo Finance · AS OF 27 OCT 2026 06:00 ET
Foundry + equipment bottleneck tape
| ID | Name | Price | 1d | 5d | 21d | Relevance |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SMH | Semi ETF (SMH) | 541.62 | +2.74% | -1.25% | -10.71% | Broad semiconductor supply-chain beta |
| TSM | TSMC | $424.37 | +1.40% | +0.99% | -5.82% | Leading-edge foundry capacity for NVDA / Apple / AMD |
| ASML | ASML | $1,590.9 | +1.22% | -3.41% | -8.78% | EUV lithography bottleneck for advanced nodes |
| AMAT | Applied Materials | $387.59 | +2.74% | -6.18% | -20.08% | Wafer fab equipment — deposition / etch / CMP |
| LRCX | Lam Research | $237.50 | +3.22% | -12.75% | -24.65% | Etch / deposition equipment for logic & memory |
| KLAC | KLA | $149.21 | +2.47% | -10.33% | -20.60% | Process control / inspection — yield bottleneck |
Gases
Specialty gases · 3
SOURCE Yahoo Finance · AS OF 27 OCT 2026 06:00 ET
Industrial-gas proxies for fab specialty gases
| ID | Name | Price | 1d | 5d | 21d | Relevance |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| LIN | Linde | $507.56 | -0.25% | +0.82% | +8.02% | Largest industrial gas franchise; fab specialty-gas exposure |
| APD | Air Products | $305.72 | -0.47% | +2.37% | +9.21% | Hydrogen / electronic gases for semiconductors & refining |
| AIQUY | Air Liquide ADR | $39.10 | +0.23% | +0.96% | +2.17% | Electronics / specialty gases for chip manufacturing |
News
Mag7 headlines · 7
SOURCE News wire · AS OF 27 OCT 2026 06:00 ET
| Symbol | Name | Headlines |
|---|---|---|
| AAPL | Apple | |
| MSFT | Microsoft | |
| GOOGL | Alphabet | |
| AMZN | Amazon | |
| NVDA | NVIDIA | |
| META | Meta | |
| TSLA | Tesla |
News
Front-page semantics
CNBC: HTTP 402; Financial Times: HTTP 402; TipRanks: HTTP 402
Influencers
Donald J. Trump
No Mag7 Truth posts found
Options
Mag7 options · 7
SOURCE Options · Massive · AS OF 27 OCT 2026 06:04 ET
Front expiry ATM IV · put/call
| Symbol | Spot | Expiry | ATM IV | P/C vol | P/C OI | Skew |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| AAPL | 347.73 | 2026-11-27 | 21.9% | 1.12 | — | — |
| MSFT | 524.51 | 2026-11-27 | 40.0% | 0.04 | — | — |
| GOOGL | 320.21 | 2026-11-27 | 33.8% | 0.00 | — | — |
| AMZN | 248.00 | 2026-11-27 | 47.0% | 0.29 | — | — |
| NVDA | 233.95 | 2026-11-06 | 40.9% | 1.86 | — | — |
| META | 728.08 | 2026-11-06 | 52.7% | 1.02 | — | — |
| TSLA | 370.59 | 2026-11-06 | 57.0% | 0.00 | — | — |
Alt data
Congress trades · Mag7 · 20
SOURCE Capitol Trades · AS OF 27 OCT 2026 06:01 ET
STOCK Act disclosures
| Symbol | Side | Range | Member | Party / chamber | Date |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| MSFT | sell | 500K–1M | Scott Peters | Democrat · House | 2026-12-12 |
| NVDA | buy | 1K–15K | Cleo Fields | Democrat · House | 2026-09-30 |
| AMZN | buy | 1K–15K | Ro Khanna | Democrat · House | 2026-09-03 |
| MSFT | buy | 1K–15K | Ro Khanna | Democrat · House | 2026-09-03 |
| MSFT | sell | 1K–15K | Michael Rulli | Republican · House | 2026-09-27 |
| MSFT | buy | 15K–50K | Diana Harshbarger | Republican · House | 2026-09-30 |
| AAPL | buy | 1K–15K | Richard Blumenthal | Democrat · Senate | 2026-09-10 |
| MSFT | buy | 15K–50K | Richard Blumenthal | Democrat · Senate | 2026-09-10 |
| MSFT | buy | 15K–50K | Richard Blumenthal | Democrat · Senate | 2026-08-26 |
| AAPL | buy | 15K–50K | Richard Blumenthal | Democrat · Senate | 2026-08-26 |
| GOOGL | Buy | 15K–50K | Richard Blumenthal | Democrat · Senate | 2026-08-26 |
| AAPL | Sell | 25M–50M | James Justice II | Republican · Senate | 2026-08-13 |
| META | Buy | 1K–15K | Richard Blumenthal | Democrat · Senate | 2026-08-26 |
| MSFT | sell | 1K–15K | Michael Rulli | Republican · House | 2026-10-05 |
| AAPL | sell | 100K–250K | Pete Sessions | Republican · House | 2026-09-21 |
| GOOGL | buy | 1K–15K | Rick Allen | Republican · House | 2026-08-11 |
| AAPL | buy | 1K–15K | Sheri Biggs | Republican · House | 2026-08-27 |
| MSFT | buy | 1K–15K | John Boozman | Republican · Senate | 2026-09-23 |
| GOOGL | buy | 1K–15K | John Boozman | Republican · Senate | 2026-09-23 |
| AMZN | buy | 1K–15K | John Boozman | Republican · Senate | 2026-09-23 |
Alt data
Insider trades · Mag7 · 20
SOURCE SEC EDGAR · AS OF 27 OCT 2026 06:02 ET
Open-market purchases / sales
| Symbol | Side | Shares | Price | Filer | Title | Date |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| AAPL | Sale | 2,399 | 339.62 | Newstead Jennifer | SVP, GC and Government Affairs | 2026-10-20 |
| META | Sale | 946 | 707.20 | Olivan Javier | Chief Operating Officer | 2026-10-19 |
| META | Sale | 82 | 707.20 | Olivan Javier | Chief Operating Officer | 2026-10-19 |
| META | Sale | 57 | 707.20 | Olivan Javier | Chief Operating Officer | 2026-10-19 |
| META | Sale | 82 | 707.20 | Olivan Javier | Chief Operating Officer | 2026-10-19 |
| META | Sale | 408 | 707.20 | Olivan Javier | Chief Operating Officer | 2026-10-19 |
| AAPL | Sale | 151 | 343.08 | Borders Ben | Principal Accounting Officer | 2026-10-16 |
| AAPL | Sale | 80 | 344.18 | Borders Ben | Principal Accounting Officer | 2026-10-16 |
| AAPL | Sale | 969 | 345.74 | Borders Ben | Principal Accounting Officer | 2026-10-16 |
| AAPL | Sale | 40 | 346.22 | Borders Ben | Principal Accounting Officer | 2026-10-16 |
| AAPL | Sale | 40 | 347.43 | Borders Ben | Principal Accounting Officer | 2026-10-16 |
| MSFT | Sale | 3,387 | 544.80 | Hood Amy | EVP, Chief Financial Officer | 2026-10-13 |
| MSFT | Sale | 2,927 | 545.77 | Hood Amy | EVP, Chief Financial Officer | 2026-10-13 |
| MSFT | Sale | 991 | 546.51 | Hood Amy | EVP, Chief Financial Officer | 2026-10-13 |
| META | Sale | 946 | 728.10 | Olivan Javier | Chief Operating Officer | 2026-10-12 |
| META | Sale | 82 | 728.10 | Olivan Javier | Chief Operating Officer | 2026-10-12 |
| META | Sale | 57 | 728.10 | Olivan Javier | Chief Operating Officer | 2026-10-12 |
| META | Sale | 82 | 728.10 | Olivan Javier | Chief Operating Officer | 2026-10-12 |
| META | Sale | 408 | 728.10 | Olivan Javier | Chief Operating Officer | 2026-10-12 |
| AMZN | Sale | 1,000 | 251.50 | Herrington Douglas J | CEO Worldwide Amazon Stores | 2026-10-01 |
Alt data
Short interest · Mag7 · 7
SOURCE Short interest · AS OF 27 OCT 2026 06:03 ET
Days to cover = SI ÷ ADV
| Symbol | Short interest | ADV | Days to cover | Δ SI | Settlement |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| AAPL | 131.59M | 35.50M | 3.71 | +9.0% | 2026-10-15 |
| MSFT | 65.67M | 20.64M | 3.18 | +7.4% | 2026-10-15 |
| GOOGL | 78.44M | 22.96M | 3.42 | -2.4% | 2026-10-15 |
| AMZN | 93.66M | 33.29M | 2.81 | +8.1% | 2026-10-15 |
| NVDA | 301.62M | 103.63M | 2.91 | -3.1% | 2026-10-15 |
| META | 28.42M | 15.79M | 1.80 | -15.4% | 2026-10-15 |
| TSLA | 69.35M | 31.29M | 2.22 | -2.2% | 2026-10-15 |
Calendar
Earnings · Mag7 · 1
SOURCE Finnhub · AS OF 27 OCT 2026 06:02 ET
Window 2026-10-13 → 2026-12-26 · EPS actual / estimate
| Symbol | Date | Timing | Session | Period | EPS A/E |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| NVDA | 2026-11-25 | In 29d | AMC | Q3 2027 | — / 2.53 |
| AAPL | No print in window | ||||
| AMZN | No print in window | ||||
| GOOGL | No print in window | ||||
| META | No print in window | ||||
| MSFT | No print in window | ||||
| TSLA | No print in window | ||||
Comps
Competitive peers · Mag7 · 7
SOURCE Competitive peers · AS OF 27 OCT 2026 06:03 ET
| Primary | Price | Trend | Peer 1 | Price | Trend | RVOL | Peer 2 | Price | Trend | RVOL | Note |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| AAPL | 347.73 | +2.3% | MSFT | 524.51 | -0.1% | 0.64x | GOOGL | 320.21 | -6.0% | 0.73x | Platform + consumer software peers |
| MSFT | 524.51 | -0.1% | GOOGL | 320.21 | -6.0% | 0.73x | AMZN | 248.00 | -2.8% | 0.70x | Cloud / enterprise software peers |
| GOOGL | 320.21 | -6.0% | META | 642.62 | -8.4% | 0.75x | MSFT | 524.51 | -0.1% | 0.64x | Ad platforms + cloud peers |
| AMZN | 248.00 | -2.8% | WMT | 120.29 | +4.8% | 0.76x | COST | 1,005.16 | +3.5% | 1.11x | Commerce / retail scale peers |
| NVDA | 210.96 | -4.8% | AMD | 531.28 | -5.2% | 0.86x | AVGO | 329.17 | -4.0% | 0.86x | AI / semiconductor peers |
| META | 642.62 | -8.4% | GOOGL | 320.21 | -6.0% | 0.73x | SNAP | 6.34 | +3.9% | 1.16x | Social / digital ads peers |
| TSLA | 372.22 | +0.4% | GM | 76.31 | -4.9% | 0.66x | F | 11.58 | -5.1% | 0.88x | Auto / EV peers |
Patents
USPTO · Mag7 · 21 grants
SOURCE USPTO · AS OF 27 OCT 2026 06:02 ET
| Symbol | Granted | Age | Patent | Title | Assignee |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| NVDA | 2026-08-18 | 2mo ago | US12709014B2 | Spatial mapping and planning with language models using knowledge graphs | NVIDIA Corporation |
| NVDA | 2026-08-18 | 2mo ago | US12710961B2 | Application programming interface to wait on matrix multiply-accumulate | NVIDIA Corporation |
| META | 2026-08-18 | 2mo ago | USD1142324S1 | Wearable device | Meta Platforms, Inc |
| AAPL | 2026-08-18 | 2mo ago | USD1142471S1 | Display screen or portion thereof with animated graphical user interface | Apple Inc |
| AAPL | 2026-08-18 | 2mo ago | USD1142463S1 | Display screen or portion thereof with graphical user interface | Apple Inc |
| AAPL | 2026-08-18 | 2mo ago | USD1142481S1 | Display screen or portion thereof with graphical user interface | Apple Inc |
| AAPL | 2026-08-18 | 2mo ago | USD1142462S1 | Display screen or portion thereof with graphical user interface | Apple Inc |
| AMZN | 2026-08-18 | 2mo ago | USD1142279S1 | Display device | Amazon Technologies, Inc |
| AAPL | 2026-08-11 | 2mo ago | USD1140954S1 | Display screen or portion thereof with graphical user interface | Apple Inc |
| NVDA | 2026-08-11 | 2mo ago | US12705061B2 | Application programming interface to indicate accelerator error handlers | NVIDIA Corporation |
| AAPL | 2026-08-04 | 2mo ago | USD1139462S1 | Display screen or portion thereof with graphical user interface | Apple Inc |
| AAPL | 2026-08-04 | 2mo ago | USD1139423S1 | Display screen or portion thereof with graphical user interface | Apple Inc |
| AMZN | 2026-08-04 | 2mo ago | USD1139252S1 | Wireless connectivity device | Amazon Technologies, Inc |
| AMZN | 2026-08-04 | 2mo ago | USD1139331S1 | Content streaming device | Amazon Technologies, Inc |
| AMZN | 2026-08-04 | 2mo ago | USD1139463S1 | Electronic device | Amazon Technologies, Inc |
| NVDA | 2026-08-04 | 2mo ago | USD1139319S1 | Graphics card | NVIDIA Corporation |
| MSFT | 2026-08-04 | 2mo ago | US12701249B2 | Rules for intra-picture prediction modes when wavefront parallel processing is enabled | Microsoft Technology Licensing LLC |
| AMZN | 2026-08-04 | 2mo ago | USJPCAUSD1139463S1 | Electronic device | Amazon Technologies, Inc |
| MSFT | 2026-07-28 | 3mo ago | US12694027B2 | Generative graph-enhanced information retrieval | Microsoft Technology Licensing LLC |
| GOOGL | 2026-07-28 | 3mo ago | USD1137184S1 | Speaker device with lights | Google LLC |
| NVDA | 2026-07-28 | 3mo ago | US12694551B2 | Foundation model for zero-shot stereo matching | NVIDIA Corporation |
Forward look
Stock Prediction for Tomorrow
Summary
The session setup is characterized by underlying strength in AI capital expenditure narratives clashing with broad weakness in Mag7 price action, as only two names hold above their 20-day moving averages. Elevated Treasury yields and upcoming earnings for several tech giants create a cautious regime, with the market weighing structural demand against short-term valuation pressures. The dominant catalyst remains the ongoing AI infrastructure buildout versus the immediate impact of higher rates.
Mag7 Calls
- AAPL · Up · medium — Above EMA20 and outperforming peers, signaling continued defensive strength near 52-week highs.
- MSFT · Flat · medium — Neutral trend vs EMA20 and elevated IV suggest consolidation ahead of earnings, despite outperforming peers.
- GOOGL · Down · medium — Significant trend weakness below EMA20 and low RSI indicate downward pressure ahead of earnings.
- AMZN · Down · medium — Lagging peers and below EMA20 with a bearish trend, pointing to continued downside before earnings.
- META · Down · high — Weakest trend vs EMA20, lagging peers, and elevated IV suggest continued selling pressure.
- NVDA · Up · medium — Despite being below EMA20, strong YoY TSMC revenue growth and massive capex invalidate bearish hardware tape signals.
- TSLA · Up · low — Holding above EMA20 with positive trend, but broad auto sector weakness and high IV cap upside.
Catalysts to Watch
- [NEW] Treasury Issues Proposed Rule to Implement Comprehensive Outbound Investment National Security Act: Could impact global tech supply chains or investment flows.
- [NEW] MSFT, GOOGL, AMZN Earnings: Upcoming prints will dictate near-term direction for these giants and influence broader market sentiment.
- [NEW] NVDA's Q3 2027 Earnings (22 days): Key event risk for the AI hardware narrative, with EPS est $2.53 and rev est $111.4B.
Risks
- Rising Treasury yields (10Y at 5.15%) compress valuation multiples across the tech sector.
- Elevated options implied volatility for MSFT, GOOGL, and AMZN (9-15 pts above realized) signals significant event risk around upcoming earnings.
Hypothetical next-session read from tape + desk synthesis. Not investment advice.