BUD FOX RESEARCH · MAGNIFICENT SEVEN
Mag7 Desk Note #154
TUESDAY, SEPTEMBER 29, 2026
OPEN PREVIEWDESK NOTE 154 · 29 SEPT 2026 · 06:04 ET
Published 6:04 AM ET · Market data through 6:04 AM ET
Leadership
META strongest trend · NVDA cleanest relative
Positioning
4/7 ABOVE EMA20 · 11% AVG CONV
Risk
3/7 BELOW EMA20 · AMZN WEAKEST RELATIVE
Watch
NVDA +3.0% vs EMA20
Deltas
Since last note
- CHANGED NVIDIA announced a record $150 billion share buyback, a significant delta from prior notes that focused on operational metrics.
- CHANGED AMD’s $8 billion acquisition of an AI research startup introduces new competitive dynamics in the enterprise AI space, previously unmentioned.
- CHANGED Meta’s enterprise AI push caused a temporary tumble in Microsoft and Oracle stocks, highlighting shifting competitive tensions in the cloud/enterprise sector.
Desk Synthesis
Executive Takeaway
NVIDIA’s $150 billion buyback is a structural floor, not just a liquidity event; it signals management’s view that current valuations do not reflect the durability of AI infrastructure demand. While the broader Mag7 complex faces macro headwinds from a deepening bond sell-off and fading geopolitical resolutions, NVDA remains the sole anchor of conviction. The divergence between NVDA’s structural cash flow dominance and the relative weakness in Google and Amazon highlights a bifurcation in the market: capital is rotating toward proven hardware monetization rather than speculative software or ad-revenue growth.
Positioning
- NVDA · Buyback as Support: The record repurchase program provides a tangible valuation anchor. With NVDA trading above its EMA20 and showing relative strength against peers, the buyback mitigates downside risk from the broader risk-off sentiment driven by rising Treasury yields.
- META · Execution vs. Insider Selling: Meta is outperforming ad peers by a wide margin, yet CEO Mark Zuckerberg’s continued selling creates a sentiment cap. The high implied volatility suggests the market is pricing in execution risk despite strong trend data.
- MSFT · Cloud Leadership: Microsoft continues to outperform cloud peers, but the recent tumble following Meta’s enterprise AI push indicates competitive anxiety. The stock is consolidating above the EMA20, suggesting institutional accumulation despite short-term noise.
- GOOGL/AMZN · Relative Weakness: Both names are below their EMA20s and lagging peers. Google’s slip in pre-market trading and Amazon’s lack of immediate catalysts suggest these names are in a holding pattern until macro conditions stabilize.
Key Risks
- Macro Overhang: The deepening bond sell-off and rising 10Y yields threaten to compress multiples across the entire Mag7, particularly for high-valuation names like NVDA and META, regardless of their individual fundamentals.
- Meta Insider Activity: The volume of shares sold by Zuckerberg and other executives at elevated prices may signal that insiders view current valuations as fully priced, creating a psychological ceiling for upside.
- AI Consolidation Uncertainty: AMD’s $8 billion acquisition of Fei-Fei Li’s AI startup intensifies the talent war and could disrupt the competitive landscape, potentially impacting NVDA’s moat in enterprise AI model development.
Watch
NVDA · $150B Buyback execution and volume relative to the 222.27 spot price — if the buyback sustains price above the EMA20 despite the broader bond sell-off, it confirms structural demand.
What Changed
- NVIDIA announced a record $150 billion share buyback, a significant delta from prior notes that focused on operational metrics.
- AMD’s $8 billion acquisition of an AI research startup introduces new competitive dynamics in the enterprise AI space, previously unmentioned.
- Meta’s enterprise AI push caused a temporary tumble in Microsoft and Oracle stocks, highlighting shifting competitive tensions in the cloud/enterprise sector.
Universe
Magnificent Seven · 7 names
SOURCE Yahoo Finance · AS OF 29 SEPT 2026 06:04 ET
Price = daily close · vs SPY = 24h relative · equity as of Sep 29, 6:04 AM ET · options as of Sep 29, 6:03 AM ET
| Symbol | Price | Trend | RSI | RVOL | RV20 | IV30 | IV−RV | Skew | vs SPY | Conv |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| AAPL | 338.40 | +2.2% | 61.8 | 0.76x | 22.1 | 22.6 | +0.5 | — | -0.04% | 7% |
| MSFT | 509.22 | +2.2% | 58.6 | 0.90x | 24.9 | 28.4 | +3.6 | — | -0.60% | 18% |
| GOOGL | 342.75 | -0.3% | 48.8 | 0.72x | 26.7 | 34.8 | +8.1 | — | +0.40% | 10% |
| AMZN | 246.15 | -2.7% | 41.2 | 0.90x | 23.3 | 41.5 | +18.2 | — | -0.67% | 0% |
| NVDA | 228.86 | +3.0% | 58.6 | 1.22x | 28.0 | 45.9 | +17.9 | — | +2.43% | 31% |
| META | 715.62 | +5.0% | 60.9 | 1.21x | 54.7 | 115.7 | +61.0 | — | -4.05% | 9% |
| TSLA | 357.45 | -2.0% | 47.1 | 0.99x | 45.9 | 60.9 | +15.0 | — | -3.20% | 0% |
Community
TradingView strategies · Mag7
Strategy bench not available this generation.
Macro
US macro + FX · 13 series
SOURCE FRED · AS OF 29 SEPT 2026 06:00 ET
| Series | Label | Latest | Change | As of |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| DFF | Fed funds effective | 3.88% | +0.25 | 2026-09-17 LAGGED |
| DGS2 | 2Y Treasury | 4.67% | -0.07 | 2026-09-17 LAGGED |
| DGS10 | 10Y Treasury | 4.94% | -0.07 | 2026-09-17 LAGGED |
| T10Y2Y | 10Y–2Y spread | 0.25% | -0.02 | 2026-09-18 LAGGED |
| T10YIE | 10Y breakeven inflation | 2.33% | +0.00 | 2026-09-18 LAGGED |
| BAMLH0A0HYM2 | HY OAS | 2.70% | +0.00 | 2026-09-17 LAGGED |
| UNRATE | Unemployment rate | 4.10% | +0.00 | 2026-08-01 LAGGED |
| CPIAUCSL | CPI (all urban, SA) | 334.1 | +3.71% YoY | 2026-08-01 LAGGED |
| DTWEXBGS | Broad USD index | 118.2 | +0.13 | 2026-09-11 LAGGED |
| DEXUSEU | EURUSD | 1.1604 | -0.0025 | 2026-09-11 LAGGED |
| DEXJPUS | USDJPY | 153.71 | -0.35 | 2026-09-11 LAGGED |
| DEXCHUS | USDCNY (CNH proxy) | 6.7080 | +0.0019 | 2026-09-11 LAGGED |
| VIXCLS | VIX | 15.44 | -2.27 | 2026-09-17 LAGGED |
Metals
Precious & auto metals · 5
SOURCE Yahoo Finance · Futures · AS OF 29 SEPT 2026 06:01 ET
Pt / Pd / Ag / Au + Cu
| ID | Metal | Price | 1d | 5d | 21d | Auto relevance |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| PL | Platinum | $1,715.6 | -0.33% | -5.87% | -7.14% | Catalytic converters (ICE); cost input for auto OEMs / suppliers |
| PA | Palladium | $1,229 | +1.59% | -4.94% | -13.97% | Gasoline catalytic converters; sharp moves hit auto input costs |
| SI | Silver | $61.06 | -0.27% | -7.40% | -8.87% | Electronics / EV contacts; industrial demand proxy |
| GC | Gold | $4,177.7 | +0.22% | -4.54% | -7.77% | Macro risk / real-rate proxy; can affect auto valuation multiples |
| HG | Copper | $6.6075 | +0.63% | -2.25% | +0.69% | EV wiring / motors; not precious but core auto cost input |
Power
Power & energy · 9
SOURCE Yahoo Finance · AS OF 29 SEPT 2026 06:01 ET
Oil / gas / utilities / uranium for AI & industrial power costs
| ID | Name | Price | 1d | 5d | 21d | Relevance |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| CL | WTI crude | $92.27 | -0.36% | -2.45% | +10.64% | Oil complex; logistics & broader industrial cost pressure |
| BZ | Brent crude | $97.36 | -7.52% | -1.90% | +9.01% | Global oil benchmark; energy inflation proxy |
| NG | Natural gas | $3.085 | +2.83% | +4.05% | +6.82% | US power-gen feedstock; data-center / utility cost sensitivity |
| XLU | Utilities ETF | 39.25 | -0.66% | -3.47% | -8.43% | Grid / power-utility equity basket; AI power demand narrative |
| URA | Uranium ETF | 40.13 | -1.91% | -6.63% | -17.04% | Nuclear fuel chain; long-duration AI power buildout proxy |
| XLE | Energy Select ETF | 62.10 | +0.10% | -0.58% | +0.29% | Integrated energy equity beta |
| EQIX | Equinix | $1,011.1 | +0.30% | -4.37% | -6.07% | Datacenter REIT — colo capacity / interconnection demand proxy |
| DLR | Digital Realty | $177.18 | -0.80% | -4.91% | -7.13% | Hyperscale datacenter real-estate / power shell deployment |
| VRT | Vertiv | $244.04 | -3.65% | -2.72% | -9.35% | Datacenter power & thermal infrastructure orders |
Semis
Semiconductor supply chain · 6
SOURCE Yahoo Finance · AS OF 29 SEPT 2026 06:01 ET
Foundry + equipment bottleneck tape
| ID | Name | Price | 1d | 5d | 21d | Relevance |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SMH | Semi ETF (SMH) | 600.01 | -1.08% | +0.67% | +4.71% | Broad semiconductor supply-chain beta |
| TSM | TSMC | $452.88 | +0.50% | +1.74% | +6.27% | Leading-edge foundry capacity for NVDA / Apple / AMD |
| ASML | ASML | $1,771.4 | +1.58% | +3.51% | +2.10% | EUV lithography bottleneck for advanced nodes |
| AMAT | Applied Materials | $486.76 | +0.36% | +4.85% | +0.91% | Wafer fab equipment — deposition / etch / CMP |
| LRCX | Lam Research | $314.47 | -0.23% | +4.14% | -1.19% | Etch / deposition equipment for logic & memory |
| KLAC | KLA | $189.17 | +0.67% | +2.83% | +2.94% | Process control / inspection — yield bottleneck |
Gases
Specialty gases · 3
SOURCE Yahoo Finance · AS OF 29 SEPT 2026 06:01 ET
Industrial-gas proxies for fab specialty gases
| ID | Name | Price | 1d | 5d | 21d | Relevance |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| LIN | Linde | $472.04 | +0.46% | +3.18% | -2.42% | Largest industrial gas franchise; fab specialty-gas exposure |
| APD | Air Products | $278.75 | -1.07% | -0.25% | -8.75% | Hydrogen / electronic gases for semiconductors & refining |
| AIQUY | Air Liquide ADR | $38.28 | +0.03% | +0.71% | -1.37% | Electronics / specialty gases for chip manufacturing |
News
Mag7 headlines · 7
SOURCE News wire · AS OF 29 SEPT 2026 06:00 ET
| Symbol | Name | Headlines |
|---|---|---|
| AAPL | Apple | |
| MSFT | Microsoft | |
| GOOGL | Alphabet | |
| AMZN | Amazon | |
| NVDA | NVIDIA | |
| META | Meta | |
| TSLA | Tesla |
News
Front-page semantics · 5
SOURCE Front-page wire · AS OF 29 SEPT 2026 06:01 ET
CNBC · FT · TipRanks · TheStreet · Fool · CNN · Fox Business
NVIDIA is the primary market mover today following reports of a record $150 billion share buyback, signaling massive confidence in its cash flow and AI demand. Concurrently, AMD's $8 billion acquisition of Fei-Fei Li’s AI startup intensifies the competitive landscape for enterprise AI talent and models, impacting the broader semiconductor and software sectors. Macro headwinds from a deepening bond sell-off and fading Iran-US deal hopes add pressure to risk assets, affecting the Mag7 broadly.
| Urgency | Theme | Story | Mag7 | Source |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| HIGH | AI/chips | Nvidia launches record $150bn share buyback | NVDA | Financial Times |
| HIGH | AI/chips | AMD to buy Fei-Fei Li’s AI start-up for $8bn | NVDA, MSFT, GOOGL | Financial Times |
| MEDIUM | Fed/macro | Bond sell-off deepens and oil rises as Iran-US deal hopes fade | ALL | Financial Times |
| MEDIUM | regulation/antitrust | Anthropic warns of ‘existential risks to humanity’ in IPO prospectus | ALL | Financial Times |
| LOW | tech | SpaceX’s Starship rocket reaches orbit for the first time despite engine failure | ALL | Financial Times |
Influencers
Donald J. Trump
No Mag7 Truth Social posts in this generation.
Options
Mag7 options · 7
SOURCE Options · Massive · AS OF 29 SEPT 2026 06:03 ET
Front expiry ATM IV · put/call
| Symbol | Spot | Expiry | ATM IV | P/C vol | P/C OI | Skew |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| AAPL | 341.07 | 2026-10-30 | 22.6% | 1.58 | — | — |
| MSFT | 516.17 | 2026-10-30 | 28.4% | 0.11 | — | — |
| GOOGL | 343.92 | 2026-10-30 | 34.8% | 0.00 | — | — |
| AMZN | 249.38 | 2026-10-30 | 41.5% | 1.72 | — | — |
| NVDA | 222.27 | 2026-10-23 | 45.9% | 8.88 | — | — |
| META | 665.75 | 2026-10-23 | 115.7% | 1.50 | — | — |
| TSLA | 364.27 | 2026-10-23 | 60.9% | 1.79 | — | — |
Alt data
Congress trades · Mag7 · 20
SOURCE Capitol Trades · AS OF 29 SEPT 2026 06:02 ET
STOCK Act disclosures
| Symbol | Side | Range | Member | Party / chamber | Date |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| MSFT | sell | 500K–1M | Scott Peters | Democrat · House | 2026-12-12 |
| AAPL | sell | 100K–250K | Pete Sessions | Republican · House | 2026-09-21 |
| GOOGL | buy | 1K–15K | Rick Allen | Republican · House | 2026-08-11 |
| AAPL | buy | 1K–15K | Sheri Biggs | Republican · House | 2026-08-27 |
| AMZN | buy | 100K–250K | Scott Peters | Democrat · House | 2026-08-11 |
| NVDA | buy | 100K–250K | Scott Peters | Democrat · House | 2026-09-22 |
| MSFT | sell | 500K–1M | Scott Peters | Democrat · House | 2026-08-12 |
| AAPL | buy | 1K–15K | Richard Blumenthal | Democrat · Senate | 2026-09-10 |
| MSFT | buy | 1K–15K | Richard Blumenthal | Democrat · Senate | 2026-09-10 |
| MSFT | buy | 15K–50K | Richard Blumenthal | Democrat · Senate | 2026-08-26 |
| AAPL | buy | 15K–50K | Richard Blumenthal | Democrat · Senate | 2026-08-26 |
| MSFT | buy | 100K–250K | Scott Peters | Democrat · House | 2026-09-22 |
| AAPL | buy | 100K–250K | Scott Peters | Democrat · House | 2026-08-19 |
| AAPL | sell | 500K–1M | Scott Peters | Democrat · House | 2026-08-30 |
| TSLA | buy | 1K–15K | Rick Allen | Republican · House | 2026-08-11 |
| GOOGL | buy | 100K–250K | Scott Peters | Democrat · House | 2026-09-22 |
| AMZN | buy | 1K–15K | Rick Allen | Republican · House | 2026-09-23 |
| GOOGL | buy | 250K–500K | Scott Peters | Democrat · House | 2026-08-04 |
| MSFT | sell | 500K–1M | Scott Peters | Democrat · House | 2026-08-02 |
| AMZN | buy | 15K–50K | Scott Peters | Democrat · House | 2026-07-30 |
Alt data
Insider trades · Mag7 · 20
SOURCE SEC EDGAR · AS OF 29 SEPT 2026 06:02 ET
Open-market purchases / sales
| Symbol | Side | Shares | Price | Filer | Title | Date |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| META | Sale | 2,093 | 775.39 | Zuckerberg Mark | COB and CEO | 2026-09-24 |
| META | Sale | 2,516 | 776.56 | Zuckerberg Mark | COB and CEO | 2026-09-24 |
| META | Sale | 7,607 | 777.63 | Zuckerberg Mark | COB and CEO | 2026-09-24 |
| META | Sale | 4,324 | 778.36 | Zuckerberg Mark | COB and CEO | 2026-09-24 |
| META | Sale | 600 | 779.33 | Zuckerberg Mark | COB and CEO | 2026-09-24 |
| META | Sale | 1,133 | 775.32 | Zuckerberg Mark | COB and CEO | 2026-09-24 |
| META | Sale | 1,769 | 776.56 | Zuckerberg Mark | COB and CEO | 2026-09-24 |
| META | Sale | 4,810 | 777.66 | Zuckerberg Mark | COB and CEO | 2026-09-24 |
| META | Sale | 2,146 | 778.40 | Zuckerberg Mark | COB and CEO | 2026-09-24 |
| META | Sale | 476 | 779.28 | Zuckerberg Mark | COB and CEO | 2026-09-24 |
| AAPL | Sale | 2,399 | 340.06 | Newstead Jennifer | SVP, GC and Government Affairs | 2026-09-22 |
| NVDA | Sale | 12,483 | 222.19 | Teter Timothy S. | EVP, General Counsel and Sec | 2026-09-21 |
| NVDA | Sale | 13,478 | 223.05 | Teter Timothy S. | EVP, General Counsel and Sec | 2026-09-21 |
| NVDA | Sale | 4,499 | 223.75 | Teter Timothy S. | EVP, General Counsel and Sec | 2026-09-21 |
| META | Sale | 20,000 | 700.50 | Cox Christopher K | Chief Product Officer | 2026-09-21 |
| META | Sale | 20,000 | 725.02 | Cox Christopher K | Chief Product Officer | 2026-09-21 |
| NVDA | Sale | 1,356,000 | 219.72 | STEVENS MARK A | — | 2026-09-18 |
| NVDA | Sale | 10,000 | 220.42 | STEVENS MARK A | — | 2026-09-18 |
| AAPL | Sale | 1,438 | 330.19 | Newstead Jennifer | SVP, GC and Government Affairs | 2026-09-15 |
| TSLA | Sale | 2,606 | 360.13 | Taneja Vaibhav | Chief Financial Officer | 2026-09-08 |
Alt data
Short interest · Mag7 · 7
SOURCE Short interest · AS OF 29 SEPT 2026 06:03 ET
Days to cover = SI ÷ ADV
| Symbol | Short interest | ADV | Days to cover | Δ SI | Settlement |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| AAPL | 128.75M | 45.14M | 2.85 | -7.9% | 2026-09-15 |
| MSFT | 67.35M | 18.05M | 3.73 | -9.5% | 2026-09-15 |
| GOOGL | 87.39M | 24.95M | 3.50 | +12.5% | 2026-09-15 |
| AMZN | 81.44M | 29.39M | 2.77 | -11.5% | 2026-09-15 |
| NVDA | 294.23M | 115.32M | 2.55 | -1.4% | 2026-09-15 |
| META | 30.99M | 19.68M | 1.57 | +7.6% | 2026-09-15 |
| TSLA | 68.86M | 40.11M | 1.72 | -7.2% | 2026-09-15 |
Calendar
Earnings · Mag7 · 1
SOURCE Finnhub · AS OF 29 SEPT 2026 06:02 ET
Window 2026-09-15 → 2026-11-28 · EPS actual / estimate
| Symbol | Date | Timing | Session | Period | EPS A/E |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| NVDA | 2026-11-17 | In 49d | AMC | Q3 2027 | — / 2.52 |
| AAPL | No print in window | ||||
| AMZN | No print in window | ||||
| GOOGL | No print in window | ||||
| META | No print in window | ||||
| MSFT | No print in window | ||||
| TSLA | No print in window | ||||
Comps
Competitive peers · Mag7 · 7
SOURCE Competitive peers · AS OF 29 SEPT 2026 06:03 ET
| Primary | Price | Trend | Peer 1 | Price | Trend | RVOL | Peer 2 | Price | Trend | RVOL | Note |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| AAPL | 338.40 | +2.2% | MSFT | 509.22 | +2.2% | 0.90x | GOOGL | 342.75 | -0.3% | 0.72x | Platform + consumer software peers |
| MSFT | 509.22 | +2.2% | GOOGL | 342.75 | -0.3% | 0.72x | AMZN | 246.15 | -2.7% | 0.90x | Cloud / enterprise software peers |
| GOOGL | 342.75 | -0.3% | META | 715.62 | +5.0% | 1.21x | MSFT | 509.22 | +2.2% | 0.90x | Ad platforms + cloud peers |
| AMZN | 246.15 | -2.7% | WMT | 108.73 | +0.7% | 0.74x | COST | 922.92 | +1.0% | 1.04x | Commerce / retail scale peers |
| NVDA | 228.86 | +3.0% | AMD | 607.87 | +9.4% | 1.02x | AVGO | 349.57 | -2.4% | 0.78x | AI / semiconductor peers |
| META | 715.62 | +5.0% | GOOGL | 342.75 | -0.3% | 0.72x | SNAP | 5.22 | -4.8% | 0.87x | Social / digital ads peers |
| TSLA | 357.45 | -2.0% | GM | 80.64 | -4.1% | 1.09x | F | 12.38 | -7.2% | 0.93x | Auto / EV peers |
Patents
USPTO · Mag7 · 21 grants
SOURCE USPTO · AS OF 29 SEPT 2026 06:02 ET
| Symbol | Granted | Age | Patent | Title | Assignee |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| GOOGL | 2026-05-19 | 4mo ago | US12632461B2 | Application prediction based on a visual search determination | Google LLC |
| AMZN | 2026-05-12 | 4mo ago | USD1125979S1 | Wall mount | Amazon Technologies, Inc |
| META | 2026-05-12 | 4mo ago | US12625557B2 | Detecting head gestures using inertial measurement unit signals | Meta Platforms, Inc |
| AAPL | 2026-05-12 | 4mo ago | USD1126244S1 | Display screen or portion thereof with animated graphical user interface | Apple Inc |
| GOOGL | 2026-05-12 | 4mo ago | US12625895B2 | Generating a personal database entry for a user based on natural language user ... | Google LLC |
| AMZN | 2026-04-28 | 5mo ago | USD1123902S1 | Electronic device | Amazon Technologies, Inc |
| GOOGL | 2026-04-28 | 5mo ago | US12613915B2 | Structured video documents | Google LLC |
| AMZN | 2026-04-28 | 5mo ago | USJPCAUSD1123902S1 | Electronic device | Amazon Technologies, Inc |
| GOOGL | 2026-04-21 | 5mo ago | US12608369B2 | Methods, systems, and computer readable media related to generating a combined search query based on search parameters of a current search query of a user and search parameters of one or more previously submitted search quer(ies) of the user that are determined to be of the same line of inquiry as ... | Google LLC |
| META | 2026-04-21 | 5mo ago | US12608435B2 | Accessing content via a logged-out experience | Meta Platforms, Inc |
| AMZN | 2026-04-14 | 5mo ago | USD1122257S1 | Electronic device | Amazon Technologies, Inc |
| NVDA | 2026-04-14 | 5mo ago | US12602332B1 | Distributed page table, memory map and routing table for multiple node systems | NVIDIA Corporation |
| AMZN | 2026-04-07 | 5mo ago | USD1121705S1 | Camera mount | Amazon Technologies, Inc |
| NVDA | 2026-04-07 | 5mo ago | US12596148B1 | Jitter injection generator for measuring phase noise and jitter transfer | NVIDIA Corporation |
| META | 2026-04-07 | 5mo ago | US12597444B2 | Systems and methods for automated digital editing | Meta Platforms, Inc |
| AAPL | 2026-04-07 | 5mo ago | USD1121665S1 | Display screen or portion thereof with a group of graphical user interfaces | Apple Inc |
| NVDA | 2026-03-24 | 6mo ago | US12587227B2 | Dynamic bit inversion for reduced overhead DC-balanced coding | NVIDIA Corporation |
| AAPL | 2026-03-24 | 6mo ago | USD1119859S1 | Headphones | Apple Inc |
| MSFT | 2026-03-17 | 6mo ago | US12580979B2 | Bidirectional mapping between applications and network content | Microsoft Technology Licensing, Llc |
| NVDA | 2026-03-17 | 6mo ago | US12581100B1 | Video encoding using reconstruction of spatially decimated frames | NVIDIA Corporation |
| NVDA | 2026-03-17 | 6mo ago | US12576776B2 | Scene illumination detection for autonomous systems and applications | NVIDIA Corporation |
Forward look
Stock Prediction for Tomorrow
Summary
The session opens against a backdrop of deepening bond yields and fading geopolitical resolutions, creating a macro headwind that pressures high-multiple growth stocks. However, NVIDIA’s historic $150 billion buyback establishes a structural floor, acting as a primary anchor for the index while capital rotates away from speculative software toward proven hardware monetization.
Mag7 Calls
- AAPL · Flat · low — Trading above EMA20 but weighed down by a $5.7B patent verdict headline and low RVOL (0.76x), suggesting limited directional momentum.
- MSFT · Up · medium — Outperforming cloud peers by 3.7pp and consolidating above EMA20; institutional accumulation persists despite competitive anxiety over Meta’s enterprise push.
- GOOGL · Down · medium — Lagging peers by 3.9pp, trading below EMA20 with rising short interest (+12.5%), and pre-market weakness signals continued underperformance.
- AMZN · Flat · low — Below EMA20 with high IV-RV (+18.2 pts) indicating fear, but lack of immediate catalysts and declining short interest cap the downside.
- NVDA · Up · high — Record buyback provides a valuation anchor; trading above EMA20 with strong relative strength (+2.43% vs SPY) and elevated volume (1.22x RVOL).
- META · Down · medium — Despite strong trend (+5.0%), aggressive insider selling by Zuckerberg and extreme IV-RV (+61.0 pts) create a psychological ceiling and execution risk.
- TSLA · Down · medium — Below EMA20 with JPMorgan target cut and postponed Roadster unveiling; negative sentiment ahead of Q3 delivery report weighs on price action.
Catalysts to Watch
- NVDA Buyback Execution: Monitor if the repurchase program sustains price above the EMA20 despite broader risk-off sentiment; failure to hold support invalidates the bullish thesis.
- AMD/AI Talent Shift: AMD’s $8B acquisition of Fei-Fei Li’s startup intensifies the enterprise AI talent war, potentially disrupting NVDA’s moat and impacting MSFT/GOOGL sentiment.
- Meta Insider Selling: The volume of shares sold by Zuckerberg at ~$775–$779 levels signals insider views on valuation caps, potentially suppressing upside despite strong ad trends.
Risks
- Macro Multiple Compression: A deepening bond sell-off and rising 10Y yields could compress valuations across the entire Mag7, particularly impacting high-IV names like META and NVDA.
- Geopolitical Shocks: Fading Iran-US deal hopes and ongoing sanctions operations add uncertainty to global supply chains, potentially triggering a broad risk-off rotation away from tech.
Hypothetical next-session read from tape + desk synthesis. Not investment advice.