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BUD FOX RESEARCH · MAGNIFICENT SEVEN

Bud

Mag7 desk

Mag7 Desk Note #145

OPEN PREVIEWDESK NOTE 145 · 25 SEPT 2026 · 06:05 ET

Published 6:05 AM ET · Market data through 6:05 AM ET

Leadership

META strongest trend · GOOGL cleanest relative

Positioning

5/7 ABOVE EMA20 · 11% AVG CONV

Risk

2/7 BELOW EMA20 · AMZN WEAKEST RELATIVE

Watch

META +16.1% vs EMA20

Deltas

Since last note

  • NEW AAPL: Why Apple may be the one Big Tech company to hit its climate goals in the AI era

Desk Synthesis

Executive Takeaway

Meta’s parabolic extension (RSI 80.5, +16.1% trend) is the primary structural anomaly, decoupling sharply from the broader Mag7 narrative. While the AI hardware supply chain remains structurally intact via TSMC and equipment leaders, NVDA’s relative weakness against AMD signals a rotation in capital allocation expectations rather than a demand collapse. The market is pricing in a "higher for longer" rate environment (DFF 3.88%) that favors cash-generative platforms over capital-intensive hardware builds in the short term.

Positioning

  • Meta Momentum Trap: Meta’s +16.1% trend and 99th percentile 52-week rank suggest exhaustion. The massive IV-RV spread (+68.2 pts) indicates options are pricing in a mean-reversion event, not continued upside.
  • NVDA vs. AMD Rotation: NVDA is lagging AMD by 5.2pp in relative trend. Capital is rotating from pure-play AI hardware leaders to peers with better valuation or diversification, despite NVDA’s structural dominance.
  • Defensive Tech Stance: Apple and Microsoft remain the only stable anchors, with Apple outperforming peers by 2.0pp and Microsoft holding inline. These are the only names with neutral-to-positive conviction and manageable RSI levels.

Key Risks

  • Meta Mean Reversion: The combination of extreme RSI, high short interest growth (+7.6%), and insider selling by Cox/Olivan creates a high-probability short-term pullback risk.
  • Hardware Capex Uncertainty: With AI hardware structure data unavailable, the divergence between NVDA’s price action and AMD’s strength creates ambiguity. If hyperscaler CapEx guidance disappoints, the hardware complex could face a broader re-rating.
  • Rate Sensitivity: The 10Y–2Y spread is compressed at 0.25%, but the Fed funds rate remains elevated. Any surprise in the next DFF print could disproportionately impact high-multiple tech names like Meta and TSLA.

Watch

META · RSI 80.5 + IV-RV +68.2pts · Insider selling acceleration vs. options skew.

What Changed

First issue in this series.

Universe

Magnificent Seven · 7 names

SOURCE Yahoo Finance · AS OF 25 SEPT 2026 06:05 ET

Price = daily close · vs SPY = 24h relative · equity as of Sep 25, 6:05 AM ET · options as of Sep 25, 6:04 AM ET

SymbolPriceTrendRSIRVOLRV20IV30IV−RVSkewvs SPYConv
AAPL335.92+2.0%61.30.57x21.819.1-2.7—-0.24%7%
MSFT497.93+0.5%54.40.77x22.422.1-0.2—-0.45%18%
GOOGL342.36-0.5%48.50.89x27.417.0-10.4—+1.42%10%
AMZN249.38-1.9%44.20.95x27.917.3-10.6—+0.13%0%
NVDA224.58+1.6%54.70.59x44.245.9+1.7—-0.33%31%
META777.59+16.1%80.51.56x47.5115.7+68.2—+4.58%9%
TSLA377.94+3.6%59.10.67x44.160.9+16.8—-0.49%0%

Community

TradingView strategies · Mag7

Strategy bench not available this generation.

Macro

US macro + FX · 13 series

SOURCE FRED · AS OF 25 SEPT 2026 06:00 ET

SeriesLabelLatestChangeAs of
DFFFed funds effective3.88%+0.252026-09-17 LAGGED
DGS22Y Treasury4.67%-0.072026-09-17 LAGGED
DGS1010Y Treasury4.94%-0.072026-09-17 LAGGED
T10Y2Y10Y–2Y spread0.25%-0.022026-09-18 LAGGED
T10YIE10Y breakeven inflation2.33%+0.002026-09-18 LAGGED
BAMLH0A0HYM2HY OAS2.70%+0.002026-09-17 LAGGED
UNRATEUnemployment rate4.10%+0.002026-08-01 LAGGED
CPIAUCSLCPI (all urban, SA)334.1+3.71% YoY2026-08-01 LAGGED
DTWEXBGSBroad USD index118.2+0.132026-09-11 LAGGED
DEXUSEUEURUSD1.1604-0.00252026-09-11 LAGGED
DEXJPUSUSDJPY153.71-0.352026-09-11 LAGGED
DEXCHUSUSDCNY (CNH proxy)6.7080+0.00192026-09-11 LAGGED
VIXCLSVIX15.44-2.272026-09-17 LAGGED

Metals

Precious & auto metals · 5

SOURCE Yahoo Finance · Futures · AS OF 25 SEPT 2026 06:02 ET

Pt / Pd / Ag / Au + Cu

IDMetalPrice1d5d21dAuto relevance
PLPlatinum$1,779+1.71%-1.36%-3.09%Catalytic converters (ICE); cost input for auto OEMs / suppliers
PAPalladium$1,262-0.65%-3.38%-4.76%Gasoline catalytic converters; sharp moves hit auto input costs
SISilver$64.97+2.38%-2.38%-4.44%Electronics / EV contacts; industrial demand proxy
GCGold$4,328.3+0.70%-2.18%-6.98%Macro risk / real-rate proxy; can affect auto valuation multiples
HGCopper$6.7675+0.73%+2.31%+2.62%EV wiring / motors; not precious but core auto cost input

Power

Power & energy · 9

SOURCE Yahoo Finance · AS OF 25 SEPT 2026 06:02 ET

Oil / gas / utilities / uranium for AI & industrial power costs

IDNamePrice1d5d21dRelevance
CLWTI crude$93.00-1.70%-7.28%+13.10%Oil complex; logistics & broader industrial cost pressure
BZBrent crude$98.92-7.20%-4.77%+12.61%Global oil benchmark; energy inflation proxy
NGNatural gas$3.246-1.55%+11.47%+14.22%US power-gen feedstock; data-center / utility cost sensitivity
XLUUtilities ETF39.36-0.98%-4.04%-8.26%Grid / power-utility equity basket; AI power demand narrative
URAUranium ETF40.86-2.69%-1.23%-10.57%Nuclear fuel chain; long-duration AI power buildout proxy
XLEEnergy Select ETF62.60+0.37%-2.34%+1.47%Integrated energy equity beta
EQIXEquinix$1,034.8-0.28%+1.83%-1.94%Datacenter REIT — colo capacity / interconnection demand proxy
DLRDigital Realty$181.00-0.25%-0.04%-3.35%Hyperscale datacenter real-estate / power shell deployment
VRTVertiv$245.30-1.40%+2.46%-3.77%Datacenter power & thermal infrastructure orders

Semis

Semiconductor supply chain · 6

SOURCE Yahoo Finance · AS OF 25 SEPT 2026 06:02 ET

Foundry + equipment bottleneck tape

IDNamePrice1d5d21dRelevance
SMHSemi ETF (SMH)600.52-0.15%+7.12%+8.04%Broad semiconductor supply-chain beta
TSMTSMC$451.15+1.03%+4.86%+8.37%Leading-edge foundry capacity for NVDA / Apple / AMD
ASMLASML$1,722.5-1.27%+7.51%-1.01%EUV lithography bottleneck for advanced nodes
AMATApplied Materials$474.25-0.03%+13.62%-1.21%Wafer fab equipment — deposition / etch / CMP
LRCXLam Research$307.16-0.04%+14.18%-2.28%Etch / deposition equipment for logic & memory
KLACKLA$187.11-0.40%+11.80%+3.05%Process control / inspection — yield bottleneck

Gases

Specialty gases · 3

SOURCE Yahoo Finance · AS OF 25 SEPT 2026 06:02 ET

Industrial-gas proxies for fab specialty gases

IDNamePrice1d5d21dRelevance
LINLinde$468.14-0.34%+1.31%-4.15%Largest industrial gas franchise; fab specialty-gas exposure
APDAir Products$284.49-0.86%-0.90%-7.10%Hydrogen / electronic gases for semiconductors & refining
AIQUYAir Liquide ADR$38.26+0.13%+0.31%-2.55%Electronics / specialty gases for chip manufacturing

News

Mag7 headlines · 7

SOURCE News wire · AS OF 25 SEPT 2026 06:00 ET

SymbolNameHeadlines
AAPLApple
Chip Stocks Retreat. Qualcomm Secures Apple Licensing Deal. NEW Investor's Business Daily · 13 hours ago
MSFTMicrosoft
Microsoft to invest $10bn into Gulf states by 2030 NEW Data Center Dynamics · 21 hours ago
GOOGLAlphabet
Alphabet: Something Big Is Coming (NASDAQ:GOOG) NEW Seeking Alpha · 18 hours ago
AMZNAmazon
NVDANVIDIA
METAMeta
TSLATesla

News

Front-page semantics · 0

SOURCE Front-page wire · AS OF 25 SEPT 2026 06:01 ET

CNBC · FT · TipRanks · TheStreet · Fool · CNN · Fox Business

The provided media sources are insufficient for generating a market-moving desk brief. CNBC content is limited to site navigation without specific news headlines, while Fox Business and CNN Business pages are truncated or blocked by security verifications (403 errors/CAPTCHA). TipRanks and Motley Fool pages returned only generic site menus and promotional content, lacking substantive financial news or analyst forecasts relevant to the Magnificent Seven.

Influencers

Donald J. Trump

No Mag7 Truth Social posts in this generation.

Options

Mag7 options · 7

SOURCE Options · Massive · AS OF 25 SEPT 2026 06:04 ET

Front expiry ATM IV · put/call

SymbolSpotExpiryATM IVP/C volP/C OISkew
AAPL338.982026-10-2319.1%0.12——
MSFT501.612026-10-2322.1%0.07——
GOOGL354.972026-10-2317.0%0.00——
AMZN258.452026-10-2317.3%0.08——
NVDA222.272026-10-2345.9%8.88——
META665.752026-10-23115.7%1.50——
TSLA364.272026-10-2360.9%1.79——

Alt data

Congress trades · Mag7 · 19

SOURCE Capitol Trades · AS OF 25 SEPT 2026 06:02 ET

STOCK Act disclosures

SymbolSideRangeMemberParty / chamberDate
MSFTsell500K–1MScott PetersDemocrat · House2026-12-12
AAPLsell100K–250KPete SessionsRepublican · House2026-09-21
GOOGLbuy1K–15KRick AllenRepublican · House2026-08-11
AMZNbuy100K–250KScott PetersDemocrat · House2026-08-11
NVDAbuy100K–250KScott PetersDemocrat · House2026-09-22
MSFTbuy100K–250KScott PetersDemocrat · House2026-09-22
AAPLbuy100K–250KScott PetersDemocrat · House2026-08-19
AAPLsell500K–1MScott PetersDemocrat · House2026-08-30
TSLAbuy1K–15KRick AllenRepublican · House2026-08-11
GOOGLbuy100K–250KScott PetersDemocrat · House2026-09-22
AMZNbuy1K–15KRick AllenRepublican · House2026-09-23
GOOGLbuy250K–500KScott PetersDemocrat · House2026-08-04
MSFTsell500K–1MScott PetersDemocrat · House2026-08-02
AMZNbuy15K–50KScott PetersDemocrat · House2026-07-30
NVDAbuy100K–250KScott PetersDemocrat · House2026-07-26
METAsell500K–1MScott PetersDemocrat · House2026-08-12
METAsell50K–100KScott PetersDemocrat · House2026-08-30
METAbuy250K–500KScott PetersDemocrat · House2026-08-09
METAbuy250K–500KScott PetersDemocrat · House2026-02-15

Alt data

Insider trades · Mag7 · 15

SOURCE SEC EDGAR · AS OF 25 SEPT 2026 06:03 ET

Open-market purchases / sales

SymbolSideSharesPriceFilerTitleDate
AAPLSale2,399340.06Newstead JenniferSVP, GC and Government Affairs2026-09-22
NVDASale12,483222.19Teter Timothy S.EVP, General Counsel and Sec2026-09-21
NVDASale13,478223.05Teter Timothy S.EVP, General Counsel and Sec2026-09-21
NVDASale4,499223.75Teter Timothy S.EVP, General Counsel and Sec2026-09-21
METASale20,000700.50Cox Christopher KChief Product Officer2026-09-21
METASale20,000725.02Cox Christopher KChief Product Officer2026-09-21
METASale946680.27Olivan JavierChief Operating Officer2026-09-21
METASale82680.27Olivan JavierChief Operating Officer2026-09-21
METASale57680.27Olivan JavierChief Operating Officer2026-09-21
METASale82680.27Olivan JavierChief Operating Officer2026-09-21
METASale408680.27Olivan JavierChief Operating Officer2026-09-21
NVDASale1,356,000219.72STEVENS MARK A—2026-09-18
NVDASale10,000220.42STEVENS MARK A—2026-09-18
AAPLSale1,438330.19Newstead JenniferSVP, GC and Government Affairs2026-09-15
TSLASale2,606360.13Taneja VaibhavChief Financial Officer2026-09-08

Alt data

Short interest · Mag7 · 7

SOURCE Short interest · AS OF 25 SEPT 2026 06:04 ET

Days to cover = SI ÷ ADV

SymbolShort interestADVDays to coverΔ SISettlement
AAPL128.75M45.14M2.85-7.9%2026-09-15
MSFT67.35M18.05M3.73-9.5%2026-09-15
GOOGL87.39M24.95M3.50+12.5%2026-09-15
AMZN81.44M29.39M2.77-11.5%2026-09-15
NVDA294.23M115.32M2.55-1.4%2026-09-15
META30.99M19.68M1.57+7.6%2026-09-15
TSLA68.86M40.11M1.72-7.2%2026-09-15

Calendar

Earnings · Mag7 · 1

SOURCE Finnhub · AS OF 25 SEPT 2026 06:03 ET

Window 2026-09-11 → 2026-11-24 · EPS actual / estimate

SymbolDateTimingSessionPeriodEPS A/E
NVDA2026-11-17In 53dAMCQ3 2027— / 2.52
AAPLNo print in window
AMZNNo print in window
GOOGLNo print in window
METANo print in window
MSFTNo print in window
TSLANo print in window

Comps

Competitive peers · Mag7 · 7

SOURCE Competitive peers · AS OF 25 SEPT 2026 06:04 ET

PrimaryPriceTrendPeer 1PriceTrendRVOLPeer 2PriceTrendRVOLNote
AAPL335.92+2.0%MSFT497.93+0.5%0.77xGOOGL342.36-0.5%0.89xPlatform + consumer software peers
MSFT497.93+0.5%GOOGL342.36-0.5%0.89xAMZN249.38-1.9%0.95xCloud / enterprise software peers
GOOGL342.36-0.5%META777.59+16.1%1.56xMSFT497.93+0.5%0.77xAd platforms + cloud peers
AMZN249.38-1.9%WMT107.59-0.3%1.12xCOST896.48-1.8%1.38xCommerce / retail scale peers
NVDA224.58+1.6%AMD629.26+16.2%1.20xAVGO350.36-2.6%0.76xAI / semiconductor peers
META777.59+16.1%GOOGL342.36-0.5%0.89xSNAP5.43-1.6%0.79xSocial / digital ads peers
TSLA377.94+3.6%GM80.57-5.0%1.10xF12.60-6.8%1.09xAuto / EV peers

Patents

USPTO · Mag7 · 21 grants

SOURCE USPTO · AS OF 25 SEPT 2026 06:02 ET

SymbolGrantedAgePatentTitleAssignee
GOOGL2026-05-194mo agoUS12632461B2Application prediction based on a visual search determinationGoogle LLC
AMZN2026-05-124mo agoUSD1125979S1Wall mountAmazon Technologies, Inc
META2026-05-124mo agoUS12625557B2Detecting head gestures using inertial measurement unit signalsMeta Platforms, Inc
AAPL2026-05-124mo agoUSD1126244S1Display screen or portion thereof with animated graphical user interfaceApple Inc
GOOGL2026-05-124mo agoUS12625895B2Generating a personal database entry for a user based on natural language user inputGoogle LLC
AMZN2026-04-285mo agoUSD1123902S1Electronic deviceAmazon Technologies, Inc
GOOGL2026-04-285mo agoUS12613915B2Structured video documentsGoogle LLC
GOOGL2026-04-215mo agoUS12608369B2Methods, systems, and computer readable media related to generating a combined search query based on search parametersGoogle LLC
META2026-04-215mo agoUS12608435B2Accessing content via a logged-out experienceMeta Platforms, Inc
AMZN2026-04-145mo agoUSD1122257S1Electronic deviceAmazon Technologies, Inc
NVDA2026-04-145mo agoUS12602332B1Distributed page table, memory map and routing table for multiple node ...NVIDIA Corporation
AMZN2026-04-075mo agoUSD1121705S1Camera mountAmazon Technologies, Inc
NVDA2026-04-075mo agoUS12596148B1Jitter injection generator for measuring phase noise and jitter transfer ...NVIDIA Corporation
META2026-04-075mo agoUS12597444B2Systems and methods for automated digital editingMeta Platforms, Inc
AAPL2026-04-075mo agoUSD1121665S1Display screen or portion thereof with a group of graphical user interfacesApple Inc
NVDA2026-03-246mo agoUS12587227B2Dynamic bit inversion for reduced overhead DC-balanced codingNVIDIA Corporation
AAPL2026-03-246mo agoUSD1119859S1HeadphonesApple Inc
MSFT2026-03-176mo agoUS12580979B2Bidirectional mapping between applications and network contentMicrosoft Technology Licensing LLC
NVDA2026-03-176mo agoUS12581100B1Video encoding using reconstruction of spatially decimated framesNVIDIA Corporation
NVDA2026-03-176mo agoUS12576776B2Scene illumination detection for autonomous systems and applicationsNVIDIA Corporation
AAPL2026-03-176mo agoUSD1118748S1Type fontApple Inc

Forward look

Stock Prediction for Tomorrow

Summary

The session opens with a risk-on backdrop driven by Asian strength (Nikkei +1.3%) and falling Treasury yields, yet the Mag7 tape shows fragmented internal momentum. Meta’s parabolic extension (RSI 80.5) presents a mean-reversion risk, while NVDA’s relative weakness against AMD signals a rotation in hardware capital allocation. The dominant narrative is a flight to quality within the group, favoring stable compounders over extended momentum names.

Mag7 Calls

  • AAPL · Up · medium — Trend +2.0% vs EMA20 and peer outperformance (2.0pp) provide structural support despite low RVOL (0.57x) and neutral options skew.
  • MSFT · Flat · medium — Inline with cloud peers and manageable RSI (54.4) suggest consolidation; lack of catalysts keeps it range-bound near EMA20.
  • GOOGL · Down · medium — Lagging peers by 8.8pp and trading below EMA20 with rising short interest (+12.5%) create headwinds for a breakout.
  • AMZN · Down · low — Weakest trend (-1.9% vs EMA20) and lowest conviction (0%) reflect retail/ads sector weakness despite stable valuation.
  • NVDA · Flat · medium — RVOL contraction (0.59x) and insider selling by Teter/Stevens cap upside, though structural AI demand keeps downside limited.
  • META · Down · high — Extreme RSI (80.5), massive IV-RV spread (+68.2 pts), and accelerating insider sales by Cox/Olivan signal imminent mean reversion.
  • TSLA · Up · low — Strong relative trend (+3.6% vs EMA20) and peer outperformance (+9.5pp) offer support, but low conviction reflects binary event risk.

Catalysts to Watch

  • Meta Mean Reversion: Watch for accelerated selling if options market makers hedge the extreme IV-RV spread, potentially triggering a short squeeze reversal.
  • NVDA/AMD Rotation: Monitor NVDA volume; if it fails to hold above recent support while AMD continues to outperform, hardware leadership may shift.
  • Treasury Yield Reaction: The 10Y–2Y spread compression (0.25%) could reverse if the next DFF print surprises, impacting high-multiple names like META and TSLA.

Risks

  • Broad Market Reversal: A sudden spike in VIX (currently 15.37) or a break in Nikkei sentiment could drag the entire Mag7 complex lower regardless of individual setups.
  • AI CapEx Disappointment: If hyperscaler guidance suggests a slowdown in physical datacenter buildout (EQIX/VRT weakness), the entire AI hardware thesis, including NVDA, faces re-rating.

Hypothetical next-session read from tape + desk synthesis. Not investment advice.

Bud Fox Research · Mag7 Desk Note #145 · DESK NOTE 145 · 25 SEPT 2026 · 06:05 ET

Published 6:05 AM ET · Market data through 6:05 AM ET

For informational purposes only. Not investment advice. Data from third-party sources; Bud Fox does not guarantee completeness or timeliness. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Mag7 Desk Note #145 · Friday, September 25, 2026 at 6:05 AM EDT